海角大神

With the US Supreme Court poised to slide further to the political right if President Trump鈥檚 nominee is confirmed, the end of the Roe v. Wade era suddenly seems a very real possibility.聽

Roe, the 1973 ruling that legalized abortion in the US, has been at the heart of a heated culture war that鈥檚 split the nation largely along partisan lines. Almost as soon as the decision was made, antiabortion activists began working toward a high court roster that would reverse the ruling. Judge Brett Kavanaugh鈥檚 confirmation, if it goes through in the fall, would give them their most conservative 鈥� and most promising 鈥� lineup in decades.

But if Roe is overturned, what then? Would America be flung back into an age of back alleys 鈥� or forward into a 鈥淗andmaid鈥檚 Tale鈥� dystopia 鈥� as some abortion-rights advocates fear?

If the Supreme Court does overturn Roe 鈥� or substantially weakens it, which is what many experts are predicting will happen 鈥� it would send abortion policy back to state legislatures to hash out. Already, even with Roe in place, more than 400 abortion restrictions have been passed at the state level over the past half-decade. Without Roe, some states would likely see an uptick in those restrictions, resulting in a wider gap between states in terms of access to safe, legal abortions, policy experts say. Reproductive rights advocates are already calling for 鈥溾�� in preparing for the worst.

But legislating 鈥� particularly when it comes to a controversial issue like abortion 鈥� is rarely a straightforward or simple process. While four states have聽鈥溾�� in place that would automatically ban abortion as soon as Roe is overturned, many others would need lawmakers to introduce and vote on new abortion bills and update their existing statutes. Some legal analysts say that when push comes to shove, legislators, especially in swing states or in states with divided government, may not relish having to codify their rhetorical positions into concrete laws and regulations.

鈥淯p until now... state legislatures could duck this controversial social issue and say 鈥� to whomever they鈥檙e talking to, whether they鈥檙e pro-choice or pro-life 鈥� 鈥業 agree with you, but there鈥檚 nothing I can do about it because the Supreme Court has taken it out of my hands,鈥� 鈥� says Dwight Duncan, a professor at the University of Massachusetts School of Law in Dartmouth. 鈥淚f Roe v. Wade was undone, the issue is back in their ballpark and they no longer have that excuse.鈥�

鈥淭he politics change,鈥� he says.

Not only will state representatives be forced to tackle the myriad and complex details of abortion policy, but they鈥檒l likely be doing it with advocates on both sides rallying voters around the issue.

Some say that鈥檚 a good thing. Policies set by the legislative branch, as opposed to the judiciary, tend to be perceived as more legitimate because they reflect the will of the people. 鈥淲e鈥檙e a democratic republic, and 鈥榳e the people鈥� ultimately should be the rulers. To the extent that it鈥檚 unelected people in robes deciding these questions, 鈥榳e the people鈥� are essentially left out of this,鈥� Professor Duncan says.

It could also scramble the nation鈥檚 political divide in unexpected ways. The fulfillment of such a long-held conservative goal 鈥� overturning Roe 鈥� could potentially deprive the Republican Party of what for decades has been a top motivating issue for many of its voters. 鈥淎nti-Roe sentiment is a combination of two things: a sincere hostility to abortion and sexual freedom... combined with the argument that this [ruling] is rammed down the public鈥檚 throats by unelected life-tenured lawyers,鈥� says Eric J. Segall, a professor at Georgia State University College of Law in Atlanta who wrote a book on the Supreme Court. 鈥淭he second [argument] goes away once Roe gets overturned.鈥�

Others suspect that a reversal on Roe could spur a fierce reaction from liberals that would mirror the rise of 海角大神 conservatives as a political powerhouse after 1973. 鈥淭hat could be the kind of energizing force needed to create a backlash on the left, thus energizing the Democratic Party,鈥� says Mark Kende, director of the Drake Constitutional Law Center in Des Moines, Iowa.聽聽

Still, without the Supreme Court protecting a woman鈥檚 right to decide whether or not to have an abortion, reproductive rights activists worry that many states will reverse what they see as decades of progress 鈥� especially for women in poor and rural communities. Already, since 2011, 33 states have enacted a total of 420 policies restricting abortion, according to the Guttmacher Institute, a reproductive rights research group.

鈥淲hat we鈥檝e seen in the past eight years has been devastating to abortion rights,鈥� says Elizabeth Nash, a policy analyst for the Washington-based nonprofit. 鈥淲ithout those [Supreme Court] protections, those restrictions will proliferate.鈥�

Yet even then, analysts say, it鈥檚 unlikely America would see a reversion to the worst of the pre-Roe era in terms of a rise in unsafe alternatives. Medical abortions, which take the form of pills, offer an option beyond what was available to women in the 鈥�50s and 鈥�60s 鈥撀爐hough of course, no one wants to encourage women to resort to illegal means. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 a shabby use of law to say, 鈥榃ell you can also get an illegal pill,鈥� 鈥� says Carol Sanger, a professor at Columbia Law School in New York.

Women today also have more political power, which means that any abortion restrictions that surface after a reversal on Roe would likely face more challenges. (While certainly not all women are pro-abortion rights, they have been the main drivers of the reproductive rights movement.)

And whatever abortion restrictions may be passed after Roe is overturned 鈥渕ay not be the final word,鈥� says Professor Sanger, who also wrote the book, 鈥淎bout Abortion: Terminating Pregnancy in Twenty-First-Century America.鈥� Given enough opposition, laws can be lobbied against and repealed. 鈥淚 can imagine someone introducing a bill saying, 鈥楾his law doesn鈥檛 work. We haven鈥檛 thought it through enough,鈥� 鈥� she says.

鈥淲e鈥檙e going to see some really interesting politics going on,鈥� Sanger adds. 鈥淚t鈥檚 much harder to take a right away than instill a new one.鈥�