With high court in play, Democrats link abortion rights and health care
| St. Louis
On Monday, Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri was on her third health-care event of the day. Blessedly, the Democrat noted, this one was air-conditioned.
The endangered senator, running for reelection in a state that President Trump won by 19 points, has put health care front-and-center in her campaign 鈥� a potentially winning issue in a race considered a toss-up.
But last week a political tornado barreled through her campaign and those of other red-state Democrats trying to keep their seats in a Senate that Republicans narrowly control. Justice Anthony Kennedy, a crucial swing vote on the United States Supreme Court, announced his retirement, throwing these senators into a precarious position as they face an expected vote on whether to confirm his replacement early this fall.
Why We Wrote This
With the makeup of the Supreme Court in play, abortion rights suddenly appears to be a top issue of the midterms. But at least in one Midwest race, health care overall looms large in the minds of voters.
Suddenly, the balance of the court is at stake, with no issue getting as much attention as the highly charged one of abortion. Missouri is an antiabortion state, but that鈥檚 not where Senator McCaskill stands. 鈥淢ost conservatives know that I have a long record of supporting women鈥檚 reproductive health freedoms ... and that is not going to change,鈥� she told reporters Monday.
What鈥檚 interesting here is the way in which McCaskill, and Democrats generally, talk about abortion rights 鈥� long emphasizing the broader context of health. It鈥檚 not only a 鈥渓ess emotionally charged way to talk about it, but a more realistic way ... because so many facets of it have to do with health care,鈥� says Jennifer Lawless, an expert on women and politics at the University of Virginia.
It鈥檚 not surprising then 鈥� and indeed a 鈥渟mart鈥� strategy, according to Professor Lawless and others 鈥� that Democratic Senate minority leader Charles Schumer of New York is highlighting and pairing abortion rights and health care as issues that hang in the balance with Justice Kennedy鈥檚 replacement.
鈥淭wo issues of 鈥� profound consequence, which could well defeat a nominee who opposes them, are the fate of affordable health care and a woman鈥檚 freedom to make the most sensitive medical decisions about her body,鈥� he wrote in a New York Times op-ed Monday.
If Americans do not want to see a justice who could overturn the 1973 landmark case that legalized abortion 鈥� Roe v. Wade 鈥� or who will 鈥渦ndo鈥� health care, he wrote, they should tell their senators not to vote for a nominee from Mr. Trump鈥檚 list of 25 candidates.
That list, he pointed out, was vetted by organizations committed to overturning Roe and shrinking government鈥檚 role in health care. As a candidate, Trump said he would nominate justices who would reverse Roe, and he has worked to repeal and weaken the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare. He鈥檚 expected to announce his nomination Monday.
Recent polls show upward of 60 percent of Americans want the Supreme Court to uphold abortion rights 鈥� though not necessarily without restrictions. But is that a top issue for voters in a midterm election year?
On Election Day 2016, a fifth of all voters said the Supreme Court was their No. 1 voting issue 鈥� and most of them voted for Trump, says Mallory Quigley, spokesperson for the Susan B. Anthony List, which supports antiabortion candidates and lobbies on behalf of law and policy restricting abortion rights. Supporters are 鈥渇ired up鈥� over the vacancy, she says.
The advocacy group plans to protest outside of senators鈥� offices. It has 500 door-to-door canvassers on the ground in Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, and Florida, and it will soon expand to West Virginia and North Dakota 鈥� all states that Trump won and where Democrat senators are up for reelection. Last year, Sens. Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, and Joe Manchin of West Virginia were the only three Democrats to break from their party and vote to confirm Trump nominee Neil Gorsuch for the Supreme Court.
鈥淭his is a major vulnerability for Heitkamp, Donnelly, and Manchin ... but also for people like Bob Casey [a Democrat from Pennsylvania] who calls himself pro-life, Claire McCaskill, and other vulnerable Democrats in states that Trump won overwhelmingly,鈥� says Ms. Quigley.
In Missouri, McCaskill鈥檚 likely Republican opponent, state Attorney General Josh Hawley, has seized on the Supreme Court vacancy, challenging McCaskill to a debate on the issue. 鈥淭he future of our country is on the line in the Supreme Court,鈥� he said last week. On Facebook, he calls the high-court vacancy McCaskill鈥檚 鈥渘ightmare.鈥�
In April, the state House passed a 鈥渇etal pain鈥� law banning abortions after 20 weeks. Women must receive counseling that discourages abortion and nearly all of the state鈥檚 women (94 percent) live in counties where no clinic provides abortion.
McCaskill told reporters she is happy to debate Hawley on a variety of issues and in a town hall setting. But her main rejoinder to Hawley is that he has signed on to a lawsuit from 20 conservative states that takes aim at the Affordable Care Act鈥檚 protections for people with pre-existing conditions 鈥� one of the most popular portions of the law. Indeed, her Monday afternoon campaign event was focused on that very issue.
Democratic pollster Celinda Lake does not see a catastrophe for McCaskill if she rejects a Trump nominee for reasons that include abortion rights. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 that challenging because even people who would be considered 鈥榩ro-life鈥� 鈥� not the hardcore pro-lifers 鈥� a lot of people are in the middle.鈥�
That would be someone like Marty Walsh, of Glendale, Mo., who came to the McCaskill event and describes himself as 鈥減ro-life鈥� 鈥� a former seminary student who studied the Roman Catholic viewpoint on the issue. But that鈥檚 just one issue, he says. Health care is also 鈥渧ery important鈥� to him, and he says he鈥檚 upset 鈥渂y what Republicans are trying to do to health care.鈥� His state has not expanded Medicaid, for instance, and rural hospitals keep closing.
A week ago, says Ms. Lake, the No. 1 issue for Democrats was health care 鈥� the issue where they have the single biggest advantage. Then came the Supreme Court vacancy. But that 鈥渆levates the saliency of other issues鈥� where the Supreme Court has ruled, including the Affordable Care Act and coverage for contraception. 鈥淭here鈥檚 an easy linkage for these two issues,鈥� and that, she says, will motivate swing voters and the base: women, baby boomers who don鈥檛 want to lose their health benefits, and Millennials who thought reproductive rights were resolved.
鈥淚鈥檓 worried about the future of women鈥� if an anti-abortion nominee is confirmed, says Christine Leeper, a content provider for bloggers and one of the younger people at the event. As for McCaskill, 鈥淚 think what could get her to win is health care, because there are so many pro-life Republicans, so many older people, who don鈥檛 want health care taken away.鈥�
