Ted Cruz victory shows GOP's impossible conundrum
Ted Cruz accomplished what he set out to do in the Wisconsin Republican primary: beat front-runner Donald Trump soundly, winning most of the state鈥檚 delegates and raising the probability of a contested GOP convention in July.
But Senator Cruz鈥檚 big victory 鈥� he beat Mr. Trump by 13 points, 48 percent to 35 percent 鈥� doesn鈥檛 prove that he is 鈥渦niting the Republican Party,鈥� as he claimed in his victory speech Tuesday night. It merely demonstrates that the Texas senator is consolidating his role as the 鈥渁nti-Trump鈥� in a presidential nomination race that has plunged the GOP into crisis.
The Wisconsin exit polls tell the story.
鈥淢ore than half of Cruz鈥檚 supporters, and two-thirds of [Ohio Gov.] John Kasich鈥檚, said they were 鈥榮cared鈥� of what Trump would do in the White House 鈥� a remarkable rejection of the leading candidate in the race,鈥� write analysts for ABC News.
鈥淣otably, among Cruz鈥檚 own voters, only a quarter were excited about what he鈥檇 do as president 鈥� further suggesting that he garnered substantial anti-Trump, not necessarily, pro-Cruz, support.鈥�
Governor Kasich underperformed in Wisconsin with only 14 percent of the vote, but he remains adamant about taking his campaign to the convention as the only 鈥渕ainstream鈥� Republican still in the race. The effect, though, has been to split the anti-Trump vote.
Perhaps more troubling for the GOP were responses to how Wisconsin Republicans would vote in the general election. If Trump is the party鈥檚 nominee against Democrat Hillary Clinton, only 61 percent of GOP primary voters said they would vote for him; 19 percent said they would vote for a third-party candidate, 10 percent said they would vote for Mrs. Clinton, and 8 percent said 鈥渘o one.鈥�
If it鈥檚 Cruz vs. Clinton in November, only 66 percent of Wisconsin Republicans said they鈥檇 back Cruz; 18 percent said they鈥檇 vote third party, 6 percent said Clinton, and 6 percent said 鈥渘o one.鈥�
These numbers are similar to national polling that shows a deep divide within the GOP between Trump supporters and Republican voters who oppose him. It鈥檚 also true that, inevitably, as Election Day nears, many unhappy voters will surely end up holding their nose and voting for their party鈥檚 nominee anyway. Clinton, in particular, inspires revulsion among many Republicans.
But Trump is no mere Republican candidate. The brash billionaire inspires rock-solid loyalty among a third of the GOP electorate, including the first-time voters he has lured into the process with his populist, nativist message. If Trump is not the nominee, many of his supporters say, they will abandon the party altogether 鈥� especially if they believe Trump is treated unfairly at the convention.
On the issue of 鈥渇airness,鈥� one exit poll question was particularly devastating to the Republican establishment: If no one wins a majority of the delegates before the convention, whom should the party nominate? voters were asked. A majority, 聽55 percent, said 鈥渢he candidate with the most votes in the primaries.鈥� Only 43 percent said 鈥渢he candidate who the delegates think would be the best nominee.鈥�
In short, the Republican Party can鈥檛 win.
鈥淚n all likelihood, Donald Trump will go to the convention with the most delegates. Wisconsin doesn鈥檛 really change that,鈥� says Matthew Kerbel, chairman of the political science department at Villanova University in Philadelphia.
If Trump arrives at the convention without a majority of the delegates, then it becomes easier to deny him the nomination.
鈥淏ut the cost of denying him is to split the party,鈥� says Professor Kerbel. 鈥淎nd the cost of not denying him is it becomes his party, and Donald Trump becomes the face of the party.鈥�
That could have a profound impact on other Republicans on the ballot.
Among general election voters, Trump has sky-high negatives. Cruz and Clinton also have high negatives 鈥� but not close to Trump鈥檚. Kasich argues he鈥檚 the most electable, and general election matchups bear that out, but his path to the nomination through a contested convention is impossibly narrow. He鈥檒l need to convince a deadlocked convention that a candidate who finished at the back of the pack deserves to jump the line. His argument is 鈥渆lectability鈥� 鈥� polls do show him performing better than Trump or Cruz against Clinton. But Tuesday鈥檚 exit polls showed electability held little sway with voters. 聽
The next test comes in two weeks with the New York primary 鈥� home turf for both Trump and Clinton, who, like Trump, needs to overcome an embarrassing defeat in Wisconsin. Clinton鈥檚 13-point loss to Bernie Sanders 鈥� 56 to 43 percent 鈥� was nevertheless expected. Wisconsin鈥檚 electorate is largely white, and very liberal, both playing to the Vermont senator鈥檚 strengths. Trump also wasn鈥檛 a good fit for Wisconsin, both demographically and culturally.聽
Before Wisconsin, New York polls showed both Trump and Clinton well ahead of their top competitors. If either underperforms, it will be clear that Wisconsin was a turning point. Both will be damaged, but still on track to head to their respective conventions with the most delegates. The math, at this stage in the race, is almost impossible to overcome.
