Why Japan鈥檚 new warning on Taiwan has Beijing outraged
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Ann Scott Tyson Staff writer
| Beijing
China is wielding its armed forces and economic heft to escalate pressure in a fierce diplomatic spat with Japan over Taiwan 鈥� the first major foreign policy test for Japan鈥檚 conservative new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi.
The conflict pits an increasingly confident Beijing under Chinese leader Xi Jinping against the hawkish Ms. Takaichi, who is a self-proclaimed friend of Taiwan and who has championed a buildup of Japan鈥檚 defense forces in response to China鈥檚 massive, decades-long military expansion. The spat is also fueled by deep historical animosity between the two Asian powers.
Only days after Ms. Takaichi and Mr. Xi shook hands in South Korea on Oct. 31 and agreed to pursue constructive ties, the long-strained relationship went into a fresh tailspin.
Why We Wrote This
China has reacted furiously to the Japanese prime minister鈥檚 warning that Tokyo would consider any attack on Taiwan as a 鈥渟urvival-threatening situation.鈥� To Beijing, that is interference in its domestic affairs. To Japan, it is a precautionary statement of principle.
Answering questions in parliament on Nov. 7, Ms. Takaichi suggested Japan could activate its defense forces if China were to take military action 鈥� such as a blockade 鈥� aimed at seizing Taiwan, the self-governing democratic island claimed by Beijing.
Such a Chinese attack could constitute a 鈥渟urvival-threatening situation鈥� for Japan, she said.
Chinese outrage ensued, unleashing a diplomatic war of words from both sides and leading to formal protests lodged with ambassadors in Tokyo and Beijing. China demanded that Ms. Takaichi retract her statement. She refused.
China鈥檚 Ministry of Defense warned bluntly on Friday that if Japan used force in a Taiwan contingency, it would suffer 鈥渁 crushing defeat.鈥�
A war of words
Then over the weekend, Beijing dispatched armed Coast Guard patrols to sail near disputed islands controlled by Japan in the East China Sea. It also advised Chinese citizens against travel to Japan, triggering declines in travel-related shares on Tokyo鈥檚 stock market. China is Japan鈥檚 largest trading partner, and nearly 10 million tourists from mainland China and Hong Kong visited the island last year.
Seeking to ease tensions, Tokyo dispatched a senior Foreign Ministry official to Beijing on Monday, according to Japanese news reports. Yet the crisis shows no signs of abating soon.
Ms. Takaichi 鈥渋s not going to be able to buckle or be perceived as buckling to China on this,鈥� says Sheila Smith, senior fellow for Asia-Pacific studies at the Council of Foreign Relations. Beijing 鈥渕ay be thinking that this kind of pressure is going to pull her down. But it could do the opposite. It could instigate broader public support for her standing up for Japan
A pointedly undiplomatic tweet by the Chinese consul general in Osaka, Xue Jian, vividly illustrates the potential for Chinese fury to backfire in Japan. In a post on X on Nov. 8, Mr. Xue shared a news article about Ms. Takaichi鈥檚 comments and threatened to 鈥渃ut鈥� the intruding 鈥渄irty neck鈥� 鈥� a crude warning to the prime minister to stay out of what China considers its business.
Japanese were shocked by the vitriol, and some politicians called for Mr. Xue鈥檚 expulsion. Although Mr. Xue鈥檚 post was later deleted, it was circulating widely in Japan, where public opinion toward China is already highly negative.
鈥淭he Chinese consul general鈥檚 鈥榳olf-warrior鈥� comments 鈥� became very controversial鈥� in Japan, says Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior fellow with the Sasakawa Peace Foundation in Tokyo. 鈥淚t was too extreme.鈥�
Could Chinese threats backfire?
If anything, the attacks could bolster support for Ms. Takaichi, analysts say.
鈥淭akaichi鈥檚 approval rating is high,鈥� says Mr. Watanabe, an adjunct fellow with the Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Her policy of 鈥渄efending Japan and contributing to regional security is 鈥� popular, especially among the young generation,鈥� he says.
Japan lies only 70 miles from Taiwan at its closest point, and a Chinese military assault would threaten vital sea lanes and require Tokyo to put its forces on alert, experts say.
Ms. Takaichi鈥檚 comments about Taiwan hewed closely to traditional Japanese policy says Mr. Watanabe. 鈥淚t was not so controversial.鈥�
But Beijing charges that Ms. Takaichi鈥檚 statements about Taiwan represent 鈥渂latant鈥� interference in China鈥檚 domestic affairs.
Citing this year鈥檚 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, Chinese officials drew links between Ms. Takaichi鈥檚 comments and Japan鈥檚 militarist past.
鈥淛apanese militarists have waged aggression more than once under the pretext of 鈥榮urvival-threatening situation,鈥欌�� said Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian last week. 鈥淚s Japan going to repeat its past mistakes?鈥�
Japan must 鈥渟top playing with fire on the Taiwan question,鈥� he said in a post on X. 鈥淭hose who play with fire will perish by it!鈥�
Beijing on Monday cast doubt on speculation that Ms. Takaichi and Chinese Premier Li Qiang might meet on the sidelines of the G20 summit in South Africa later this month. There are 鈥渘o plans鈥� for such a meeting, said Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning.
