How Wisconsin could be a turning point in the GOP race
Days before Super Tuesday, a potent hashtag appeared on Twitter: #NeverTrump.
It was, Republican opponents of Donald Trump said at the time, a last-ditch rallying cry to prevent the mercurial billionaire from winning the GOP presidential nomination and effectively taking over the party.
Five weeks later, #NeverTrump is still trending 鈥� and the Republican movement to derail the 鈥淭rump train鈥� faces its moment of truth Tuesday in the Wisconsin primary. Conservative groups have spent millions of dollars on television and radio attack ads. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, a onetime contender for the nomination, has rallied support for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Mr. Trump鈥檚 top opponent. In Milwaukee, whose suburbs are rich with Republican voters, conservative talk radio hosts have been skewering Trump relentlessly.
The hour is late, Trump opponents warn.
鈥淗onestly, If Donald Trump does win in Wisconsin, I don鈥檛 know how he鈥檚 possibly stoppable,鈥� says Charlie Sykes, Wisconsin鈥檚 top conservative radio voice, speaking Monday on MSNBC.
鈥淏ut I do think that people are going to look back at Wisconsin and say, 鈥楢ll right, this is exactly what it will take to stop Donald Trump from being the Republican nominee.鈥� 鈥�
There are indications that Wisconsin could indeed slow Trump鈥檚 momentum. One key poll has Senator Cruz 10 points up.
For his part, Mr. Sykes says the lead-up to Wisconsin has uncovered a 鈥渇ormula鈥� for stopping Trump that includes a new willingness by the media to drill down on issues with Trump 鈥� as MSNBC host Chris Matthews did last week on abortion. Trump said he believed women should be punished for having abortions, then quickly reversed himself after an uproar ensued.
But many of Wisconsin鈥檚 lessons about how to beat Trump are particular to the state. Its deeply ingrained sense of civility, as well as its relatively higher levels of education and religious adherence, all play to Trump鈥檚 weaknesses.
In the end, Wisconsin鈥檚 biggest contribution to the #NeverTrump movement could simply be in denying him the delegates he needs to win a majority by the Republican National Convention this summer. At the convention, Trump鈥檚 chances of securing the nomination will plummet if he can鈥檛 do it on the first ballot.聽
Style and incivility
In Wisconsin, Trump has been his own worst enemy, with a brash style that clashes with the state鈥檚 culture of civility.
鈥淓ven when Scott Walker was battling the unions [in 2011] and 100,000 people were marching around the capitol, those were family-friendly events,鈥� says Barry Burden, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. 鈥淭here were massive policy disagreements, but not a lot of personal insults.鈥�
Trump鈥檚 recent retweet of an unflattering picture of Cruz鈥檚 wife, Heidi, is just one example of his tone-deaf approach in Wisconsin, the only state voting Tuesday. Trump鈥檚 repeated attacks on Walker and on the Republican speaker of the House, Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, have also baffled observers, as both men are popular among the state鈥檚 Republicans.
Trump is running into the buzzsaw of a state GOP that coalesced around Walker during his clashes with public unions and the subsequent recall election in 2012, which the governor survived, followed by his reelection in 2014.
鈥淭hat means there鈥檚 not a rump group of the party ready to bolt to go to Trump,鈥� says Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette University Law School poll. Last week, the poll showed Cruz beating Trump, 40 to 30 percent.
On the plus side for Trump, Wisconsin does not register voters by party and allows same-day registration. So first-time or infrequent voters inspired by Trump鈥檚 message can easily turn out for him.
Ultimately, observers still expect Cruz to win, though there are important demographic reasons not to put too much stock in a Cruz victory. Nate Cohn, a specialist on voter analytics , points to several factors that have always spelled trouble for Trump in Wisconsin, including:
Education. The state is average or above average in every educational category, while support for Trump skews toward those with less education. Wisconsin is unusual in that 鈥渕any of its most strongly Republican areas are well-educated suburbs,鈥� Mr. Cohn notes.
Religion. Wisconsin is also a bit above average for religious adherence, and 鈥渨ith the exception of white Roman Catholics, Trump fares worse in areas where larger shares of the population are reported to be religious adherents,鈥� Cohn writes.
Family. Trump also fares worse in areas with strong traditional families; Wisconsin has an above-average number of married couples.
Ancestry. Wisconsin鈥檚 population skews toward those from 鈥減redominantly Protestant countries in Northern Europe,鈥� a demographic in which Trump has struggled, Cohn reports.
In short, Wisconsin Republicans are similar demographically to those in Iowa, Kansas, and Utah, all states where Cruz beat Trump 鈥� who then rebounded.
Road to the convention
The key for Trump will be to recover quickly if he loses Wisconsin. The calendar both helps and hurts him. The next contest isn鈥檛 until April 19, so he potentially faces two weeks of being cast as a loser. The good news for him is that the next contests are on friendlier turf 鈥� his home state of New York, followed by Pennsylvania.
But if Trump loses Wisconsin badly enough that he earns no delegates, his path to clinching the Republican nomination before the convention becomes steeper. Then, his biggest failing as a candidate 鈥� his weak organization 鈥� could come into play. 聽
He has a dearth of insiders both nationally and inside the state parties who can defend his interests in delegate allocation.
Trump has already reportedly been losing delegates to Cruz, whose operation is going after those who are uncommitted or won by candidates no longer in the race.
Trump has attempted to address this by bringing in veteran Republican strategist Paul Manafort to wrangle delegates at the convention, a major 鈥済et.鈥�
The third remaining GOP candidate, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, remains an important factor, preventing Trump and Cruz from going against each other one-on-one. Governor Kasich appears to have benefited from the departure of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio from the race March 15. He scored 21 percent in the latest Marquette poll, up from 8 percent in late February, and is the choice of older-generation GOP leaders in the state, including former Gov. Tommy Thompson and former Rep. Scott Klug.
Polling shows Kasich beating Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in the general election in November, while both Cruz and Trump lose to Mrs. Clinton.
鈥淎t least at the moment, he seems to have a better chance at preventing another Clinton presidency,鈥� says Rich Bonomo, an engineering researcher at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. 聽
Kasich trails far behind Trump and Cruz in the delegate count, and the only way he can win the GOP nomination is through a contested convention. But for some Wisconsin voters, Kasich is an important option 鈥� the only candidate left with executive branch governing experience and more-moderate Republican policies.
Rebecca Forbes Wank, bookkeeper for the University of Wisconsin press, says she doesn鈥檛 like Cruz, because he鈥檚 鈥渟o far to the right.鈥� And she can鈥檛 vote for Trump, in part because 鈥渢he way he鈥檚 been running has made it OK for people to be racist.鈥�
That leaves her with Kasich. In ultra-liberal Madison, Trump and Cruz supporters are few and far between, but in the wider state, they are the ballgame. And after Tuesday, Republicans nationally will be one step closer to knowing whether they鈥檙e headed for a contested convention.
