海角大神

Look at polling on Donald Trump 鈥� and listen to the comments of Republican voters in a focus group 鈥� and what鈥檚 his biggest vulnerability?

His temperament. Not his plan to build a wall on the Southern border. Not his plan to deport 11 million undocumented immigrants. Not his plan to rip up international trade deals.

A shockingly low 27 percent of United States voters think Mr. Trump has 鈥渢he right temperament鈥� to be president, according to the latest . Even among Republicans, less than a majority 鈥� 48 percent 鈥� believe he has the right temperament for the presidency.

It鈥檚 not hard to see why, given Trump鈥檚 public behavior 鈥� the name-calling, the boasting, the intemperate tweets. It鈥檚 also not surprising that, of all five remaining presidential candidates, Trump has the highest .

Even supporters say Trump should dial back the rhetoric.

鈥淚 agree that Trump could tone it down a little bit, but I think he鈥檚 the best candidate. Be firm but don鈥檛 be obnoxious,鈥� said Kevin Rotellio, a restaurant manager, speaking Tuesday in a focus group of 12 Republican and Republican-leaning voters in St. Louis.

When focus group moderator Peter Hart asked the voters which concerns them more about Trump, his policies or his personality, about half said personality, some said policies, and two said neither.

The take-away is this: For Trump to build on his lead toward the Republican nomination and become stronger as a general-election candidate, he just needs to modify his behavior. That鈥檚 easier than backing down from his policies.

鈥淭hey didn鈥檛 say, 鈥楤oy, I鈥檓 totally opposed to him for this reason, I鈥檓 deeply disturbed by this position or that.鈥� It was all performance and style and manner,鈥� Mr. Hart told the Monitor the day after the focus group. 鈥淟ooking at it from a strategic point of view, I feel this is a low hurdle that he鈥檚 going to have to get over.鈥�

Hart compares the challenge to dealing with a child who is clearly smart, but has a behavior problem. 鈥淚f the next week he starts acting like a little angel, you brush over the past. You say, he鈥檚 grown, he鈥檚 matured, he understands the seriousness of what he鈥檚 doing,鈥� says Hart, a veteran Democratic pollster who conducted the focus group on behalf of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania.

鈥楾wo Donald Trumps鈥�

Many observers have suggested that Trump鈥檚 presidential campaign is in some ways an act, one that he can turn on and off at will. He was, after all, a reality TV star for 11 years. Former rival Ben Carson suggested as much 鈥� describing 鈥渢wo Donald Trumps鈥� 鈥� when he endorsed Trump earlier this month.

"First of all, I鈥檝e come to know Donald Trump over the last few years. He鈥檚 actually a very intelligent man who cares deeply about America," Dr. Carson said. "There are two different Donald Trumps. There鈥檚 the one you see on the stage, and there鈥檚 the one who鈥檚 very cerebral 鈥� sits there and considers things very carefully.鈥�

Carson also suggested that over time, the more 鈥減residential鈥� Trump would come to the fore.

鈥淵ou can have a very good conversation with him, and that鈥檚 the Donald Trump that you鈥檙e going to see more and more of right now,鈥� he said.

At a news conference the next day, Trump agreed that 鈥減erhaps there are two Donald Trumps,鈥� before reversing himself and saying there鈥檚 only one Trump. But he doubled down on the idea that he has a thoughtful side.

鈥淧erhaps people don't think of me that way because you don't see me in that forum, but I am a thinker," Trump said. "I'm a very deep thinker. I know what's happening."

Trump also alluded to the theatrical aspect of running for president, saying that wrestling promoter Vince McMahon should have put on the debates, 鈥渂ecause they were like WWE.鈥� Trump himself has appeared at WWE鈥檚 WrestleMania.

Whether Trump can, or really wants to, change his ways as a candidate is an open question. Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center, suggests he can鈥檛. She points to the infamous debate where Trump defended the size of his hands and other body parts, and she says that proves he can鈥檛 help himself.

鈥淗e sounds as if he鈥檚 going to be civil, he鈥檚 going to be smarter than [Marco] Rubio, he鈥檚 going to get out of the low-road references,鈥� Ms. Jamieson says. But then Trump makes the crude comment about his anatomy. 鈥淚t looks as if the impulse to counterpunch is irresistible.鈥�

Questions about the performance art aspect of Trump鈥檚 campaign can also lead to questions about the seriousness of his policy prescriptions 鈥� i.e., whether he really thinks he can build the wall, deport all the unauthorized immigrants, and destroy the Islamic State.

Voters鈥� views on Trump鈥檚 promises

In the St. Louis focus group, participants were asked if Trump had made promises they didn鈥檛 expect to be kept.

鈥淚f we can鈥檛 fix the potholes and the streets, we鈥檙e not going to get the wall built,鈥� one man said.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think he鈥檒l round up 11 million people and deport them,鈥� said Trump supporter Gail Capelovitch, a college-educated data specialist.

Hart jumped in and asked how many of the 12 focus group participants think there鈥檚 never going to be a wall. Eight hands went up. The same number raised their hand on mass deportations 鈥� not going to happen.

Not everyone was prepared to give up on Trump鈥檚 promises.

鈥淚鈥檓 holding him to the wall,鈥� said Steve Berman, a screenwriter and strong Trump supporter. 鈥淗e鈥檚 based his whole campaign on that, and I believe he鈥檚 going to tell Mexico to build it. And I believe he鈥檚 going to round up all these illegal aliens.鈥�

Hart asked the group if there were other issues they expected Trump to carry out. 鈥淒ealing with terrorism,鈥� said one man. 鈥淢ake the military strong,鈥� a woman said. 鈥淭ake care of veterans,鈥� said another woman.

So it鈥檚 not that issues aren鈥檛 important in this campaign. It鈥檚 that voters seem to understand that what Trump has laid out are opening bids, not hard and fast positions 鈥� and that he鈥檚 a businessman who knows how to negotiate.

鈥淭rump does understand the art of the deal,鈥� said Joseph Glass, a retired engineer who voted for Ohio Gov. John Kasich in the Missouri primary.

Ultimately, it seemed to Hart that these focus group voters were looking to Trump more for the authority and strength he projects and not because of policy specifics. All but one said they鈥檇 vote for Trump in November if he鈥檚 the nominee, albeit in some cases (largely women voters) with reservations.

That Trump鈥檚 appeal is style over substance could make for a Republican National Convention that isn鈥檛 racked by battles over policy.

鈥淲hen you get a policy fight, that鈥檚 when you get convention fights,鈥� says Hart. 鈥淚t鈥檚 what Pat Buchanan did to George H.W. Bush, and it鈥檚 the same thing that happened with Barry Goldwater in 1964, when people said, 鈥榃e鈥檙e going to fight to the end for this.鈥� 鈥�

鈥淚 didn鈥檛 hear that鈥� Tuesday night, he says.