海角大神

[Updated at 2 p.m. ET]听Over and over, as Republican voters spoke of the presidential race 鈥� and of Donald Trump in particular 鈥� one word kept coming up: 鈥渟trong.鈥�

The nation needs a strong leader, said the 12 voters, gathered Tuesday night in St. Louis for a focus group. That鈥檚 hardly a surprising conclusion, especially following the deadly terror attacks by the Islamic State in Brussels earlier in the day. And Mr. Trump, the GOP presidential front-runner, projects strength, they said.

After听Tuesday鈥檚听nominating contests, in which Trump gained more delegates than his top rival, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, the billionaire is one step closer to accomplishing an extraordinary feat: winning the Republican presidential nomination as a political novice, while bucking party orthodoxy on a range of issues, from trade to entitlements to the US鈥檚 role in the world to Planned Parenthood.

Some in the group expressed reservations about Trump. He needs a 鈥渇ilter,鈥� two of the women said. He needs to 鈥渢urn the noise down just a tad,鈥� said another. 鈥淏e a bit more humble,鈥� said one of the men.听Two of the 12 voters in the focus group 鈥� organized by veteran pollster Peter Hart, with reporters watching via live stream 鈥�听said they would vote for Trump in November only as 鈥渁 last resort.鈥�

So why do some voters see Trump as strong?听

鈥淏ecause he鈥檚 direct and outspoken, and uses language that they understand and relate to,鈥� Mr. Hart told the Monitor Wednesday. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 want to say the swear words, but the way in which he approaches it, it鈥檚 not political speak. It鈥檚 straight talk, and he gets credit for it.鈥�

Hart describes Trump鈥檚 style as 鈥渁uthoritarian.鈥� In fact, recent academic research shows that Trump supporters are united by one common trait 鈥� not income, education level, or race, but an inclination toward authoritarian leadership. That finding could have profound implications for the Democrats come November, if Trump is the Republican nominee.

鈥淏ecause of the prevalence of authoritarians in the American electorate, among Democrats as well as Republicans, it鈥檚 very possible that Trump鈥檚 fan base will continue to grow,鈥� wrote Matthew MacWilliams, the author of the study and a PhD candidate at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, in .听

Placing Trump in the American historical context is tricky. In many ways, the real estate mogul/reality TV star/Twitter maven has no historical precedent. But in his ability to project strength, at least, Hart sees a hint of Ronald Reagan.

鈥淚f you were looking for the one link between President Reagan and Trump, it is the clear, straightforward, declarative language,鈥� says Hart. 鈥淭he difference is, Reagan was always the smiling face, with an upbeat, sunny message of 鈥榤orning in America,鈥� and Trump is obviously stern and tough. And while he says he will 鈥榤ake America great again,鈥� essentially his language is much more negative and harsher.鈥�

After Tuesday鈥檚 nominating contests, in which Trump gained more delegates than his top rival, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, the billionaire is one step closer to accomplishing an extraordinary feat: winning the Republican presidential nomination as a political novice, while bucking party orthodoxy on a range of issues, from trade to entitlements to the US鈥檚 role in the world to Planned Parenthood.

But ultimately, if Trump wins the Republican nomination, only one said they would never vote for him. That result flies in the face of polls that show major reservations about Trump by Republican voters. shows more than a third of Republican voters in the 鈥渘ever Trump鈥� camp.听

On Tuesday,听Trump and Senator Cruz performed as expected: Trump won the Arizona primary, and all 58 delegates at stake, with 47 percent of the vote. Senator Cruz won the Utah caucuses, and all 40 of the state鈥檚 delegates, with 69 percent of the vote. A contested GOP convention in July remains a possibility, but Trump still has potential to lock up the nomination before then.

In Arizona, about half of the voting took place before Tuesday, and the attacks in Brussels. Among those who voted on primary day, it鈥檚 not clear how the terror attack might have affected voters鈥� choices.

But Brussels certainly weighed heavily on the focus group voters in St. Louis. When asked for the 鈥渙ne thing鈥� they鈥檙e looking for in the next president, voters named a range of qualities, including ability to get things done, high moral character, and toughness.

鈥淵ou鈥檝e got to be strong,鈥� said Trump supporter Kevin Rotellio, a restaurant manager in his 40s. 鈥淲e can鈥檛 be weak, or we might be the next terror attack.鈥�

At another point, when the discussion turned to leadership style, one participant brought up a world leader whom Trump has said he admires.

鈥淭his business about Trump鈥檚 being outspoken and harsh and all that 鈥� isn鈥檛 Putin the same way? And he seems to be doing OK, so I don鈥檛 know that that鈥檚 bad,鈥� said Joseph Glass, a retired engineer who voted for Ohio Gov. John Kasich in the Missouri primary.

The biggest reservations over Trump were voiced by women 鈥� a reflection of polling that shows women are more concerned than men by Trump鈥檚 manner, and . When the group was asked by Mr. Hart if Trump would be different as president than he has been as a candidate, some expressed hope that that would be the case.

鈥淚f he surrounds himself with reasonable people, he will be different,鈥� said Joyce Reinitz, a teacher who lists her party affiliation as 鈥渘ot strong Republican.鈥� 鈥淗e鈥檒l still be opinionated. But he will have perhaps some of the social filters built in as personalities that will try to calm him down.鈥�

Another woman, homemaker Gabrielle Ritter, also hoped for the calming influence of advisers, if Trump is elected. Ms. Ritter, an independent who voted for Cruz in the primary and came into the focus group with a 鈥渧ery unfavorable鈥� view of Trump, wished 鈥渉e could just come across more reasonable.鈥�

鈥淚鈥檓 concerned about him discussing deals with Putin or Iraq or the Middle East or Mexico,鈥� she said. 鈥淚鈥檓 concerned, because of how he is portrayed in the media right now, how he is going to handle those situations, so that we don鈥檛 end up in a worse international situation. I think that the best decision that he could make is to choose a good cabinet of advisers to help him.鈥�

Cherri Crenshaw, another independent woman who voted for Cruz, said she is looking for a president who is "strong plus respectful." When asked to elaborate, she responded: 鈥淚t鈥檚 the opposite of Donald Trump. I think he is very strong, but I think he comes across as a bully. I don鈥檛 think you can lead the country when you鈥檙e demeaning people in such blatant ways.鈥�

And yet of the 12, only one focus group participant said they could never vote for Trump. And when asked if they had reservations about Trump鈥檚 understanding of foreign policy, only one person raised their hand.

Dissatisfaction with the status quo is that high 鈥� high enough to put a foreign policy novice in the Oval Office. Frustration over the Obama years, and the inability to 鈥済et things done,鈥� burns hot. And Republican voters, at least most of these voters, are prepared to bet on someone who is untested in government 鈥� even someone they don鈥檛 much like. They dismissed the concerns of the GOP 鈥渆stablishment鈥� as 鈥淲ashington politicians鈥� who have nobody but themselves to blame for the rise of Trump.

Focus groups are an imperfect way to gauge public sentiment. (Though it must be noted that Hart as moderator, with the sponsorship of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania, is considered the gold standard.) Sometimes a form of 鈥済roup think鈥� can set in.

That may have been the case with this group, when all but one said they鈥檇 vote for Trump if he鈥檚 the nominee. But exasperation with the Obama administration, and the state of the country, may be so high by November that the vast majority of Republicans would be willing to pull the lever for Trump, despite the polls today.