Donald Trump vs. Pope Francis: Game-changer in South Carolina?
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| Walterboro, S.C.
Has Donald Trump met his match?
When Pope Francis suggested to reporters Thursday that Mr. Trump 鈥渋s not a 海角大神,鈥 because of his tough approach to illegal immigration, . Trump responded as he always does: by going on the attack.
鈥淔or a religious leader to question a person鈥檚 faith is disgraceful,鈥 said Trump, who is Presbyterian, .
Later on Thursday, at a rally, Trump said of the pope鈥檚 comment, 鈥淲ho the hell cares?... We have to stop illegal immigration, massive crime.鈥
Throughout his improbable presidential campaign, the brash billionaire has made one intemperate comment after another, and always seemingly comes out on top. But now, it鈥檚 Trump vs. the pope 鈥 and by extension, the Roman Catholic Church 鈥 and all bets are off.
The effect in South Carolina, which holds its crucial 鈥渇irst in the South鈥 Republican primary on Saturday and where Trump leads in polls, may be minimal. The state, after all, is only 7 percent Catholic.
鈥淏ut there could be a downstream effect to this that could come back to haunt [Trump],鈥 says David Woodard, a political scientist at Clemson University in Clemson, S.C.
Even people who aren't Catholic "have a lot of reverence for the pope and the church and what he stands for,鈥 says Professor Woodard, who is also a GOP consultant and neutral in the presidential race. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think they鈥檇 want him picked on by a politician."
Trump鈥檚 appeal to the faithful in America has been one of the curiosities of this unusual presidential race 鈥 and South Carolina, in the heart of the Bible Belt, is no exception. Two-thirds of the state鈥檚 Republican primary electorate self-identify as 鈥渆vangelical鈥 or 鈥渂orn-again 海角大神,鈥 and polls show Trump winning this cohort by margins even greater than his overall lead. The latest in South Carolina shows Trump leading Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by 16 percentage points, 38 percent to 22 percent. Among Evangelicals, his lead over Senator Cruz is even bigger: 42 percent to 23 percent.
Trump may seem an unlikely choice for social-conservative churchgoers. He is twice divorced, married three times. He has used profane language on the stump (though has promised to stop). He referred to a book of the Bible as 鈥淭wo Corinthians.鈥 And as recently as last year, he spoke positively about .
But this campaign isn鈥檛 about social issues. It鈥檚 about a larger anger and frustration with Washington dysfunction. The politicians Americans send to the capital become captive of the 鈥渟ystem,鈥 and don鈥檛 bring the changes they promise, GOP voters say.
鈥淗e talks very matter-of-factly, very plain,鈥 says Dianne Lawson of Ridgeland, S.C., at Trump鈥檚 rally Wednesday in Walterboro. 鈥淗e says what a lot of us want to say but are afraid to say. You know, I think he鈥檚 very smart, otherwise he couldn鈥檛 have made the fortune that he鈥檚 made.鈥
The rally, held at a hunting ground in the state鈥檚 鈥渓ow country,鈥 focused on Second Amendment gun rights, but Trump recited his other usual lines 鈥 including his promise to build a big, 鈥渂eautiful鈥 wall along the southern US border, and have Mexico pay for it. That promise is part of what the pope objects to in Trump鈥檚 message, though this was the day before the pontiff鈥檚 comments.
鈥淒onald Trump has not always been on the up and up, but neither has any other politician,鈥 says Ms. Lawson, who is Southern Baptist and works at a federally funded health-care facility. 鈥淚 think he鈥檒l do the right thing. I think that鈥檚 what spirituality is about 鈥 doing the right thing.鈥
Others at the Walterboro rally, hosted by the 鈥淟owcountry Sportsmen for Trump,鈥 also defended Trump from a religious perspective. What about his three marriages? 鈥淭he pope says it鈥檚 OK to remarry,鈥 says Christopher Gardner of Santee, S.C., who calls himself 海角大神.
And the cursing? 鈥淚 do it,鈥 says Mr. Gardner. 鈥淚鈥檓 sorry for it, and I ask for forgiveness. We all do it.鈥
鈥淭rump tells us he loves us. I鈥檝e not seen another candidate who says that,鈥 says Kent Gardner, his father. In running for president, 鈥渉e鈥檚 giving up a lot. He鈥檚 sacrificing for us.鈥
Another rally-goer, Randy Huggins, a retired ad man from Ruffin, S.C., says he鈥檚 90 percent sure he鈥檒l vote for Trump, but his reservation has nothing to do with faith. It鈥檚 Trump鈥檚 recent criticism of former President George W. Bush 鈥 seeming to blame him for 9/11 and accusing him of lying his way into the Iraq War 鈥 that gives Mr. Huggins pause. Mr. Bush, whose brother Jeb is struggling in his own presidential campaign, is still popular in South Carolina.
鈥淢y only hesitation with Trump is that he sometimes, I think, will speak before contemplating what he says,鈥 says Huggins, whose second choice is Cruz.
Cruz, more than any of the other candidates, has gone all-in for the evangelical vote. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, too, is making a special appeal to young Evangelicals, in particular. But it鈥檚 Cruz, the son of a preacher, who is most overtly religious, incorporating talk of scripture into his stump speech and calling on his supporters to 鈥渁waken the body of Christ that we may pull back from the abyss.鈥
On Thursday, Cruz released a list of more than 300 South Carolina pastors and faith leaders who have endorsed him for president.
But Trump, a political novice, is still winning that demographic, according to polls.
鈥淥ne thing Trump has done very well is to really hit the issue positions a lot of Evangelicals are concerned with 鈥 not on the social issues so much, but everything else,鈥 says James Guth, a political scientist at Furman University in Greenville, S.C., and an expert on the religious right.
Evangelicals tend to be less friendly toward immigrants and more hostile toward Muslims, particularly Evangelicals with just a high-school education, he says.
鈥淭heir faith is part of their nationality, in a way, and people who are outside of one or the other clearly are evaluated less favorably,鈥 says Professor Guth. 鈥淭he polls show that.鈥
The pope鈥檚 insertion into the presidential race, via the immigration issue, only raises the stakes. Nationally, 25 percent of the American electorate is Catholic, and this pope is popular, both inside and outside the church. Eight months after entering the presidential race, Trump may have overstepped an invisible line with his rhetoric. Or maybe not. Only one aspect of the 2016 race has been predictable, and that is it鈥檚 unpredictability.