Nevada caucuses: Who has the Hispanic vote?
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As the Nevada caucuses approach, GOP and Democratic candidates are scrambling for the Latino vote.聽
The reason is obvious: in Nevada, 17 percent of all eligible voters are Hispanic. Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican candidate Marco Rubio have been the presumed front-runners in Nevada because of their Hispanic support in the state, but their victories are becoming less and less certain.
Mrs. Clinton鈥檚 campaign focused on Nevada from the beginning, putting organizers on the ground in April 2015, while Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders hired his first Nevada staffer in October. The former secretary of State has played up Mr. Sanders鈥檚 late start in the battleground state, portraying his Latino appeals as disingenuous.聽
鈥淥n the ground, it is really difficult to ,鈥 said Emmy Ruiz, Clinton鈥檚 Nevada director, to CNN. 鈥淎nd that is something we keep hearing from different communities. They have been with her since day one.鈥澛
But Sanders doesn鈥檛 shy away from Clinton鈥檚 "30 years to 30 days" comparison. In fact, he embraces it. The difference embodies Sanders鈥 anti-establishment campaign, say supporters. Rania Batrice, Sanders鈥檚 Nevada spokeswoman, says the campaign鈥檚 12 field offices in Nevada are staffed by young, Hispanic volunteers who believe in Sanders鈥檚 鈥減olitical revolution.鈥
鈥淭his is a system that isn鈥檛 working for the everyday person. It鈥檚 one of the reasons why I decided to endorse Bernie Sanders,鈥 said Lucy Flores, a former state assemblywoman now running for Congress, in an ad launched in Nevada last week.聽
And after Sanders鈥檚 22-point win in New Hampshire last week, the Clinton campaign is working to lower expectations for Nevada, where the Democratic caucus will be held Feb. 20.
鈥淵ou have a caucus-style format, and coming out of New Hampshire presumably, so there鈥檚 a lot of reasons he should do well,鈥 said Brian Fallon, a Clinton spokesman, on MSNBC last week.聽
Between their immigration policies and 鈥溾 rhetoric, GOP frontrunners Ted Cruz and Donald Trump likely never stood a chance with the Latino electorate. Marco Rubio, with his Latino heritage, a history of bipartisan immigration efforts, and no viable competitors, seemed to have the Hispanic vote locked up
But in the final days before the Feb. 23 Republican caucus, GOP Latinos in Nevada are sounding less enthusiastic.
"In recent weeks, Rubio has taken a hard-right turn, painting all immigrants as possible terrorists,鈥 following in Mr. Trump and Senator Cruz鈥檚 footsteps, said聽Dolores Huerta, an organizer with People for the American Way, to NBC.
鈥淚 think Marco is probably going to win Nevada, but it could be a bellwether for whether the GOP can attract with Marco, or someone else,鈥 Danny Vargas, a political media consultant, told NBC.聽
But the battle for Latino voters may not matter much after next week.
鈥淔ew states with large Hispanic populations are likely to be key battlegrounds,鈥 explains a January Pew Research Center report. California, Texas, and New York are hardly considered , yet together they account for 52 percent of all US Latino voters. Eligible Hispanic voters in contested states such as New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Wisconsin make up less than four percent of the electorate.聽
But Florida, Nevada, and Colorado are the outliers in a larger national pattern. Unlike the other 47 states, these three check out in both categories: they are unpredictable in presidential elections and they have a sizable Latino population.聽
In traditional red or blue states, presidential candidates don鈥檛 focus on the Hispanic vote, which in turn leads to a dismal Hispanic voter turnout rate, Pew suggests. In 2012, 64 percent of whites and 67 percent of blacks voted, while only 48 percent of eligible Hispanic voters went to the polls.
Ruy Teixeira, who studies demographic voting patterns at the Center for American Progress, says writing off the Hispanic vote is a 鈥溾 because this demographic has the greatest proportion of young voters.聽
, almost 12 million Hispanic millennials are already eligible to vote, and that number is growing with every election. For now, their numbers are dwarfed by the 42 million white, non-Hispanic millennials, but they already account for almost as large a voting block as the Asian (3 million) and black (10 million) millennial demographics combined.
[Editor's note:聽The headline on the original version of this article misstated the format by which Nevada Republicans and Democrats will select presidential candidates for each party.闭听