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Can McMaster 'ground' White House foreign policy on the fly?

Three ways in which the national security adviser's influence could show up as the Trump administration faces key foreign policy tests in the Middle East and Asia.

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Susan Walsh/AP/File
Army Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, shown at Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Fla., left open the possibility of future U.S. military action against Syria while speaking in his first televised interview April 9. However, he indicated that American forces would not act unilaterally to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Long before he became a statesman, H.R. McMaster was known as a scholar, writing a best-selling book that criticized US military commanders for failing to stand up to Lyndon Johnson during the Vietnam War.

Now a three-star Army general and US national security adviser, General McMaster鈥檚 take on advising presidents has global significance. And after President Trump from a permanent post on the National Security Council (NSC) last week, McMaster is set to consolidate his influence in a White House responding to North Korean provocations and fallout from missile strikes on a Syrian airfield.

Could McMaster, a famous tactician, become a driving force behind Mr. Trump鈥檚 nascent foreign policy? The Monitor spoke to several NSC experts and former McMaster colleagues who explained how his influence could show up as the Trump administration faces key foreign policy tests in the Middle East and Asia.

1. Deliberative decisionmaking

Michael Flynn spent just 24 days as national security adviser, but the retired Army lieutenant general wasn鈥檛 shy about making headlines. Showing up without warning at a White House press briefing earlier this year, Mr. Flynn promised to put Iran 鈥渙n notice.鈥

Expect a more deliberative style from McMaster, former colleagues say.

鈥淵ou will usually see him behind the scenes,鈥 says retired Army Col. Cole Kingseed, a former West Point professor who taught McMaster as a cadet at the elite military academy in the 1980s. 鈥淭here's no self-interest involved whatsoever. His job is not a personal loyalty to the commander-in-chief. It's a personal loyalty to the Constitution.鈥

But McMaster鈥檚 blunt style hasn鈥檛 always helped his career. Even though he became one of the first army commanders in Iraq to implement counterinsurgency principles focused on protecting local populations from militants, the Army twice passed him over for promotion to the rank of one-star general.

But retired Army Lt. Gen. David Barno, who worked with McMaster on a US Central Command assessment of the Iraq War in 2006, says the Philadelphia native鈥檚 counsel will be influential in building political consensus at the White House.

鈥淭hese folks have a bit of a Vulcan mind meld about how to implement military decisions once they鈥檙e made at the White House,鈥 Mr. Barno says. 鈥淭here鈥檚 going to be a lot more unified thinking.鈥

2. Pentagon leadership

Trump has appointed former military commanders to run the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security. But McMaster is one of the only top White House advisers who鈥檚 served in Iraq and Afghanistan, giving him unique credibility to inform decisions about the use of military force.聽

鈥淥ne of the things that McMaster is going to bring right to the White House is that he鈥檚 probably the only actor who鈥檚 been to war,鈥 says Barno. 鈥淗e doesn鈥檛 just know what it looks like when the bullets are flying. He鈥檚 studied war. He knows that there are second- and third- and fourth-order effects of decisions that are made.鈥

Last month, Trump proposed a 53-page 鈥渟kinny budget鈥 that included a 10 percent increase to the Pentagon鈥檚 coffers, alongside sizeable cuts to the State Department and foreign aid programs. McMaster鈥檚 recent appointment and Bannon鈥檚 removal from his permanent seat at the NSC could signal the military subsuming roles traditionally held by other agencies.

鈥淵ou鈥檙e going to see more money going into the Pentagon, and it鈥檚 going to play a bigger role,鈥 Barno says. 鈥淚f you want to fight forest fires, you roll out the National Guard. If you鈥檝e got a crisis in Haiti with an earthquake, you send military forces. They鈥檙e going to be relied upon more and more.鈥

But McMaster鈥檚 development of military options may not always take the form of missile strikes or deploying troops. For instance, appearing on Fox News with Chris Wallace on Sunday, McMaster indicated that he鈥檒l focus on gathering a coalition of US allies to stop Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from using chemical weapons against his own people.

鈥淚t will be our job to provide him with options based on how we see this conflict evolve in this period of time before us, after the strike,鈥 he said. 鈥淎nd what we're doing now is working with our partners, our allies, everyone, except Russia and Iran, who are somehow continue to think that it's OK to be aligned with his murderous regime.鈥

3. Personnel changes

Bannon isn鈥檛 the only Trump appointee who won鈥檛 be sitting in on national security meetings. On Sunday, that Deputy National Security Advisor K.T. McFarland 鈥 originally brought on by Flynn 鈥撀爃ad been asked to step down from the NSC. She reportedly will become ambassador to Singapore.

Who McMaster chooses to fill that position, experts say, could play a key role in determining national security policy.

鈥淭he deputy national security adviser is really the most important position in the interagency national security agency decisionmaking process,鈥 says John Bellinger, a former NSC legal adviser during the George W. Bush administration. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a killer job. Who comes in as the Deputy NSC? That鈥檚 the person who makes sure the trains run on time.鈥

But even with Bannon leaving his permanent NSC post, experts aren鈥檛 convinced that McMaster has asserted himself on the policy or personnel fronts just yet. McMaster downplayed Bannon鈥檚 shifting role in the Fox News interview on Sunday. And the controversial ex-Breitbart media executive did appear in a photograph of national security decisionmakers at Mar-a-Lago on Thursday, before American tomahawk missiles struck Al-Shayrat airfield in Syria.

That leaves experts like Loren Schulman, the senior aide to former National Security Advisor Susan Rice, and now a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, concerned that the changes won't make much difference.

鈥淭he president is welcome to hear from whomever he wants,鈥 she says. 鈥淏ut if you鈥檙e standing up to the president and you鈥檙e not hearing what his other adviser is saying, that makes it very difficult to run a national security process.鈥

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