Biden mobilizes, again, to calm Mideast even as he wrangles with Netanyahu
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Howard LaFranchi Staff writer
| WASHINGTON
When President Joe Biden assembled a coalition of countries to help Israel thwart an Iranian aerial onslaught in April, the White House had high hopes the mission might reap something of a twofer from Israel.
First, the demonstrated value of international partners might dissuade Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from pursuing the increasingly go-it-alone course he was taking in Israel鈥檚 war against Hamas in Gaza, officials suggested.
And second, Mr. Biden鈥檚 willingness to deploy significant military resources for Israel鈥檚 defense 鈥� and his 鈥渘o daylight鈥� public support for Israel 鈥� might result in a reciprocal willingness to achieve the president鈥檚 priorities of avoiding a wider war in the Middle East and bringing the Gaza war to a close.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onPresident Biden is trying yet again to keep the Middle East from a war that seemed imminent, if widely unwanted, even as his relationship with Israel鈥檚 leader appears to have deteriorated.
But now, as the White House works around the clock once again to avoid a sharp escalation in the Middle East and a wider war that no party seems to want, there is also deep frustration with Mr. Netanyahu and faltering trust in his willingness to cooperate on quieting the region.
Instead of just 鈥渢aking the win,鈥� as Mr. Biden advised after Iran鈥檚 coordinated attack was successfully rebuffed, Mr. Netanyahu has pursued a course that has heightened tensions to the brink of war. Moreover, that course has stymied Mr. Biden鈥檚 demands that a cease-fire be reached in Gaza this month.
With Iran and Hezbollah, Tehran鈥檚 well-armed proxy in Lebanon, promising retaliation for last week鈥檚 assassinations of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah military commander Fouad Shukur in Beirut, Israelis are living with the threat of a devastating attack coming at any moment.
In response to the daily assertions that retaliation is coming, the Israeli government has advised the United States that any targeting of civilians will be met with a 鈥渄isproportionate鈥� response, U.S. officials have said.
Public versus private
In this tense climate, the U.S. is not wavering from its full support for Israeli security, and is positioning additional military assets in the region and coordinating with the coalition of countries that sprang to Israel鈥檚 defense in April.
But privately U.S. officials express frustration that, as they see it, Israel has been taking actions with the effect of undermining U.S. goals 鈥� while knowing the U.S. will come to its defense if those actions provoke a military response.
Indeed, Mr. Biden鈥檚 exasperation with Mr. Netanyahu exploded in a recent phone call between the two, when the president reportedly shouted at the Israeli prime minister and told him in heated undiplomatic terms to stop misleading him.
In this context, the Biden administration鈥檚 nonstop diplomatic efforts might seem doomed.
But diplomacy does still have a chance, some regional analysts say: Not solely or perhaps even primarily as a manifestation of U.S. power in the region, but because no one, least of all Iran, wants to trigger a costly war.
鈥淎ll the indications are that no one 鈥� not Iran, not Hezbollah, not Israel 鈥� wants a devastating and unpredictable war right now,鈥� says Hanin Ghaddar, Friedmann fellow in Middle East affairs at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
鈥淚f Iran ends up responding in a way that Israel can tolerate,鈥� she adds, 鈥渢hen I think there is still room for a bigger role for diplomacy.鈥�
Others say the U.S. must press forward with diplomacy to avert escalation 鈥� with the long-term goal being to allow the U.S. to reduce its Middle East footprint.
鈥淧olicymakers in Washington should do everything possible to prevent the outbreak of a full-scale regional war鈥� in the Middle East, says Michael DiMino, a former CIA counterterrorism officer who is now a fellow at Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank promoting restraint in U.S. foreign policy.
Such a conflict 鈥渨ould not serve the security interests of the United States, Israel, or the world,鈥� he says.
Diplomacy鈥檚 impact?
No one thinks Iran and Hezbollah can be dissuaded from taking some retaliatory action in response to the assassinations. But days have gone by without Iranian missiles or attack drones flying 鈥� after Secretary of State Antony Blinken told his G7 counterparts Sunday to expect the retaliation within 48 hours. And that suggests to some administration officials and experts that intense diplomatic contacts and back-channel communications with Iran are slowing and modifying the response.
At an emergency meeting Wednesday of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Iran鈥檚 acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani said his country would respond to Mr. Haniyeh鈥檚 killing on its territory at 鈥渢he right time鈥� and in an 鈥渁ppropriate鈥� manner.
And in a speech Tuesday commemorating Mr. Shukur, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said his organization is 鈥渃ommitted to responding鈥� to the recent assassinations. Insisting 鈥渋t will come,鈥� he also asserted that 鈥淚srael鈥檚 week-long wait is part of the punishment.鈥�
But Ms. Ghaddar says there are good reasons to think every party involved wants to avoid an unpredictable escalation right now.
鈥淚ran cannot afford a war,鈥� she says, underscoring the country鈥檚 weak economy, a government still in formation after recent elections, and a national priority of protecting an advancing nuclear program.
Hezbollah, she adds, is keen to end what she calls the 鈥渄aily鈥� erosion of its military officer corps in Israeli attacks.
鈥淭hey are desperate to stop the bleeding,鈥� she says. 鈥淪o I would think they will go with a response that will be enough to tell their people they avenged these deaths,鈥� she adds, 鈥渂ut one that will still leave room for diplomacy to get to a cease-fire.鈥�
Noting further that Mr. Nasrallah has said Hezbollah would act alone if it had to, she says, 鈥淓specially in light of Israel鈥檚 preemptive actions, they don鈥檛 have the luxury of delaying it [retaliation] much longer.鈥�
As for Israel, she says, 鈥淒espite the boldness we鈥檝e seen recently, they don鈥檛 want a wider war either.
鈥淭hey鈥檝e been at war for 10 months now,鈥� she adds, 鈥渟o they want to restock and rest up before they would go into Lebanon鈥� after Hezbollah.
A focus on Gaza
Even amid the nervous waiting game, U.S. officials continue to insist that a Gaza cease-fire remains just inches away, as Mr. Blinken said again this week.
Speaking with reporters Wednesday, White House national security spokesman John Kirby said that despite rising tensions, the parties to the cease-fire negotiations 鈥渁re as close as we think we have ever been鈥� to a deal.
Mr. Kirby refused to comment on recent reports of Mr. Biden鈥檚 frustrations with Mr. Netanyahu or White House suspicions that the Israeli leader is playing on the president鈥檚 loyalties to Israel while offering nothing in return.
But he did venture to cast the blame for the lack of a cease-fire in Gaza on both Hamas and Israel, despite White House insistence months ago that Israel was fully on board.
鈥淭he deal hasn鈥檛 been accepted,鈥� Mr. Kirby said, 鈥渂ecause neither side has signed up to it.鈥�
