As Biden arrives, Israel鈥檚 war aims are ambitious, and incomplete
| TEL AVIV, Israel
Amid the anguish and shock over Hamas鈥� devastating Oct. 7 cross-border assault, Israeli officials have used many different terms and euphemisms for their war aims in Gaza.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the goal is to 鈥渃rush鈥� the Islamist militant group that has ruled the Palestinian territory for the past 16 years. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said Israel will 鈥渆liminate ... Hamas from the face of the Earth.鈥�
And former military chief Benny Gantz, an opposition politician brought into the coalition last week as part of an 鈥渆mergency unity government,鈥� has said the objective is to 鈥渃hange the security and strategic reality鈥� of the entire area.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onAs Israel girds for war against Hamas, it鈥檚 clear that something has changed. The worst attack in the country鈥檚 history has raised the price that leaders and the public say they are willing to pay for security. How and whether it can be achieved is unclear.
Yet how Israel means to achieve these objectives, at what cost to the people of Gaza while not triggering a wider Middle East conflagration, and what would follow on the ground in Gaza, remain unclear.
The consensus is that Israel will mount a massive ground invasion to root out what is assumed to be a well-prepared and dug-in enemy, something it had previously avoided because of the costs to both sides. Israeli military officers are clear this will not be, as one said in reference to countless previous hostilities, 鈥渏ust another round with Gaza. It鈥檚 something else.鈥�
Unprecedented visit
President Joe Biden is set to arrive in Israel Wednesday for an unprecedented wartime visit, as rockets from Gaza still rain down on much of southern and central Israel and Israeli fighter jets continue to bombard the coastal enclave.
His goal will be to find some middle ground between 鈥� as he has said 鈥� his 鈥渋ron-clad support鈥� for Israel鈥檚 security in the wake of the horrific Hamas atrocities, and his desire to also ensure that Gaza does not collapse into a humanitarian disaster.
Over 1,400 Israelis were killed in the Hamas attack, mostly civilians including children and older people, according to Israeli authorities. Nearly 200 Israelis have been taken captive in Gaza. Both numbers are still expected to rise from the worst attack in the Jewish state鈥檚 history, say Israeli analysts.
Inside Gaza, some 2,800 people have been killed in Israeli strikes, and 9,700 wounded, according to Gaza health officials, and Israel has laid what some senior officials have described as a 鈥渟iege鈥� around the territory, cutting off water, electricity, and the entry of goods, including medical supplies.
U.S. officials have said their immediate goal is to alleviate the humanitarian situation inside Gaza. Yet Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who has been traveling around the region, has so far been unable to broker a deal that would move aid convoys from Egypt in, and dual-national foreign-passport holders out.
At the same time, the United States has solidly backed Israel in the military realm, deploying two carrier strike groups to the region. Airlifts of U.S. munitions and other advanced weaponry land in Israel near daily. President Biden himself has warned Iran and its Shiite militia proxy Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, to not fully enter the conflict.
鈥淒on鈥檛,鈥� the president said last week, in a pointed address to both parties.
Israeli officials and the general public have been greatly appreciative of the U.S. president鈥檚 solidarity, with his public remarks last week aired repeatedly on television as a sort of rallying cry in lieu of commercials (which given the wartime footing and national grief have all been suspended).
Skirmishes with Hezbollah
Israeli analysts are hopeful that the threat of direct American military involvement may yet deter the powerful Hezbollah, which has a vast arsenal of rockets and precision missiles at its disposal, and spare Israel the costly need to fight on two fronts.
The U.S. military deployment 鈥渕akes clear to our enemies that if they think about joining the attack against [us] there will be an American intervention. Israel will not be alone. This strengthens us, and also stops them from taking adventurous risks,鈥� Israeli national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said Tuesday.
Since the outbreak of hostilities in and around Gaza, there have been near daily cross-border anti-tank missile and mortar attacks by Hezbollah into northern Israel, as well as attempted incursions, with retaliatory Israeli air and artillery strikes. Both sides have taken casualties. Despite the often-heavy fire, Israeli officials maintain that it still has not reached the level of open war.
If it came to it, one senior Israeli military officer said, 鈥渨e鈥檙e ready and of course we can鈥� fight on two fronts simultaneously. But Israeli officials are clear that they would rather not.
The focus for now, they maintain, is Hamas in Gaza. The objective as laid out by the Israeli cabinet?
鈥淭o destroy the military and governance capabilities of Hamas鈥� and other Gaza-based militant groups, Mr. Hanegbi said, and to ensure that 鈥淗amas will no longer be the sovereign ruler ... able to threaten us from Gaza.鈥澛�
Israel has already mobilized some 360,000 reservists and massed at least four divisions in southern Israel, bordering Gaza. Most analysts expect a major and deep ground offensive into Gaza, perhaps in the coming days, although President Biden鈥檚 visit to the region will almost certainly delay its start.
All previous Israeli governments shied from such a step precisely due to the heavy toll it would inflict on Israeli forces and Palestinian civilians as they fought their way through the densely packed territory鈥檚 cramped warrens and refugee camps.聽
鈥淲e saw how Hamas organized and coordinated its offensive,鈥� says veteran military analyst Amos Harel. 鈥淚鈥檓 sure they鈥檝e prepared defensively just as well.鈥�
Yet it now appears the Israeli public, as well as its military and political leadership, is firmly behind just such a move.
鈥淣o doubt a ground operation will be there,鈥� retired Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, formerly the head of Israeli military intelligence, said on a call with journalists. 鈥淭he idea that we don鈥檛 want to enter on the ground was based on the price. Since the price [of the Hamas attack] was so high, we won鈥檛 hesitate鈥� this time.
Focus on northern Gaza
Israeli officials will not speak about their future operational plans in order not to tip their hand.
But in pure military terms, Israel has so far bombarded Hamas targets in Gaza from the air and sea and land, preparing the way for what are likely to be columns of armor and infantry, backed up by naval units, special forces, and close air support, analysts predict.
The Israeli military has for the past week warned residents of northern Gaza to head southward 鈥渇or their own safety.鈥� According to the United Nations, some 600,000 Gazans have already moved to the southern environs of the territory.
Most analysts expect the Israeli ground offensive to focus, at least in its initial stage, on Gaza City in the north, the territory鈥檚 largest population center and the hub of Hamas鈥� governing and military capabilities.
The inclination, Israeli analysts and officials contend, is not to reoccupy the entirety of Gaza 鈥� Israel withdrew all its settlers and army in 2005 鈥� but rather to move in with force and begin destroying Hamas weapons stores and rocket arsenals, and to kill fighters and senior leaders.
Most worrisome for military planners is the extensive underground tunnel network, termed the 鈥淕aza Metro,鈥� that Hamas has been building for years.
鈥淵ou鈥檙e dealing with this enemy on his own turf,鈥� Mr. Harel warns. 鈥淗e鈥檒l dictate terms, too, and he鈥檚 been preparing.鈥�
Prime Minister Netanyahu has framed the current campaign as an existential fight for Israel鈥檚 place in the Middle East, and has begun preparing the public for what may lie ahead.
鈥淰ictory will take time; there will be difficult moments. ... Sacrifice will be required,鈥� he said in parliament Monday.
But the Israeli public appears ready for the sacrifice, not least to ensure the ability of the shattered communities of southern Israel to return and rebuild.
Need for deterrence
Batia Horin, a grandmother from the Kfar Azza kibbutz where at least 100 people were slain, has now been evacuated to a different kibbutz in central Israel. She and her entire family mercifully survived; many of her neighbors did not.
鈥淣o one will go back to the [region bordering Gaza] if Gaza won鈥檛 be eliminated. I know that鈥檚 an abstract term. What it really means is that there shouldn鈥檛 be anything that can threaten [us] ... and all the other communities.鈥�
Major General Yadlin allowed that such war aims were 鈥渁mbitious,鈥� but the atrocities committed by Hamas fighters during their assault were 鈥減ictures that Israel cannot tolerate.鈥�
And, he added, it was also a question of deterring other actors across the region.
鈥淎t the end of the operation, the rest of the Middle East should contemplate what the consequences would be for trying to do this on another border.鈥�
To the question of what may come after in Gaza, and after Hamas, if Israel indeed emerges 鈥渧ictorious鈥�?
Israeli officials have no clear answer yet.
鈥淲e still don鈥檛 know what will be,鈥� Mr. Hanegbi, the national security adviser, said Tuesday. 鈥淏ut we definitely know what there won鈥檛 be.鈥�
