Respect vs. humiliation: What pushes Trump to leave the Mideast
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Howard LaFranchi Staff writer
| WASHINGTON
Donald Trump is not the first president to entertain the notion of getting the United States out of the Middle East.
That would be Barack Obama.
President Obama鈥檚 dream of leaving behind a region that has bedeviled the U.S. for a half century may have been couched in loftier terms of policy and strategy. But in the end both presidents came to more or less the same conclusion: The Middle East costs the U.S. more in blood and treasure than it鈥檚 worth.
Why We Wrote This
Policy makes strange bedfellows? The Middle East, a region of boundless conflict, has nevertheless brought two American presidents who could hardly be more different to the same conclusion: The U.S. needs to leave.
鈥淭here is a consistency of this desire to get the United States out of the region between the two administrations,鈥� says Ken Pollack, a former CIA Middle East analyst and National Security Council official who is now a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.
鈥淭rump鈥檚 is an infinitely cruder, less sophisticated version of what Obama said,鈥� he adds, 鈥渂ut in the end it鈥檚 more or less the same objective. He wants out.鈥�
Mr. Obama鈥檚 stated reason for seeking to redirect America鈥檚 focus from the Middle East can be broadly reduced to two words: Asia pivot.
But in the end, what the Obama administration said would be a 鈥渞ebalancing鈥� of resources came to very little 鈥� a few hundred Marines in Australia, and a regional trade deal (the Trans-Pacific Partnership) from which President Trump later withdrew the U.S.
Still, with China on the rise and challenging the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific region, the world鈥檚 most prosperous and dynamic, Mr. Obama wanted to shift U.S. resources 鈥� military, diplomatic, and economic 鈥� to the new century鈥檚 up-and-coming arena.
And to some extent, that objective has continued under the Trump administration.
Even in the aftermath of this month鈥檚 missile strike in Iraq that killed a top Iranian general, Qassem Soleimani, and despite the heightened Mideast tensions that have followed, Defense Secretary Mark Esper has continued to speak of shifting troops and other resources away from the Mideast (and other regions) to Asia.
The reason? To confront China, singled out in the Trump administration鈥檚 first National Security Strategy in 2017 as America鈥檚 chief strategic competitor.
Yet despite that consistency, President Trump鈥檚 motivations for wanting out of the Middle East appear to be less about grand global strategies and more about visceral reactions to what he sees as U.S. failures there.
Add to that a worldview that broadly sees U.S. commitments abroad as a waste of the country鈥檚 resources. It鈥檚 a worldview that at the same time demands respect for 鈥� and fealty to 鈥� U.S. power, while disdaining those who rely on it for security, especially if they are not paying dearly for it.
The Middle East 鈥� with its endless wars that have cost the U.S. trillions of dollars with little to show for it, and its wealthy oil kingdoms that have relied on the U.S. for their security 鈥� has to Mr. Trump鈥檚 way of thinking cost the U.S. too much in blood and treasure while delivering little in return and doing little to solve its own problems.
鈥淟et someone else fight over this long blood-stained sand,鈥� Mr. Trump declared in March 2019 as he announced at the White House a deal with Turkey that would supposedly allow U.S. forces to exit Syria. 鈥淣ow we鈥檙e getting out. We were supposed to be there for 30 days,鈥� he added, 鈥渁nd that was almost 10 years ago.鈥�
Last week, when Fox News commentator Laura Ingraham reminded Mr. Trump in an interview that he had run for office on an exit from the Middle East, and that the Iraqi government was now on record demanding the exit of U.S. troops from Iraq, he responded, 鈥淚鈥檓 OK with it鈥� 鈥� before adding that, privately, that is not what the Iraqis are saying at all.
Mr. Trump鈥檚 impulse to get out of the Middle East results from a gut-level, who-needs-them frustration, some foreign-policy experts say 鈥� an outlook on the region that has only solidified as the American shale revolution has reduced U.S. dependence on Mideast oil.
鈥淚f there is a strategy to what this president is doing in the Middle East, I just don鈥檛 see it,鈥� says Richard Murphy, a former assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern and South Asian affairs under President Reagan, and a noted regional expert.
鈥淲hat I do see is that he speaks for the average American Joe who is impatient with problems that don鈥檛 get solved, and who 鈥� [agrees] when Trump says we鈥檝e been taken for a ride by these 鈥榓llies鈥� and they have made fools of us,鈥� Mr. Murphy says. 鈥淭rump looks at [the Middle East] and says, 鈥榊ou are just bleeding us white, so why don鈥檛 you just go away?鈥欌��
Mr. Trump may be frustrated by the Iraqis, who tell the world they want to kick the U.S. out; or the Saudis, who apparently balked at an embryonic Mideast 鈥渄eal of the century鈥� peace plan that brushed over a political solution for the Palestinians; or certainly by Afghanistan, which has cost the U.S. over a trillion dollars and counting.
But to truly understand Mr. Trump鈥檚 frustration with the Middle East and his desire to leave it behind, one must go back to the Iranian Revolution of 1979 and the taking of 52 American hostages at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, some historians and foreign-policy experts say.
鈥淭he Iranian revolution, which led to the hostage crisis and an energy crisis, was one of Trump鈥檚 formative experiences in thinking about America鈥檚 role in the world,鈥� writes Brookings Institution foreign-policy analyst Thomas Wright in a recent post on the Brookings website.
When it comes to Iran, he adds, 鈥渉e does have an obsession with avoiding a humiliation.鈥�
Mr. Wright cites an October 1980 interview on NBC with Mr. Trump, then in his mid-30s, in which the flashy New York City real estate mogul boils down American foreign policy to matters of respect and humiliation.
America 鈥渟hould really be a country that gets the respect of other countries,鈥� Mr. Trump told NBC journalist Rona Barrett. That the Iranians 鈥渉old our hostages is just absolutely and totally ridiculous,鈥� he said, 鈥渁 horror 鈥� I don鈥檛 think they鈥檇 do 鈥� with other countries.鈥�
Fast-forward 40 years, and President Trump tweets the day after the Soleimani strike that 鈥渋f Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets, we have 鈥� targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago). 鈥� The USA wants no more threats!鈥�
鈥淭here鈥檚 no question Trump has carried deep inside him the humiliation and the sense of shame from the hostage crisis,鈥� says AEI鈥檚 Mr. Pollack. Tough talk about putting adversaries in their place and avenging past wrongs may sit well with the president鈥檚 core constituency, he adds 鈥� but so does what he calls the 鈥渆qually strong demand that a [Fox commentator] Tucker Carlson represents to avoid another Middle East war and instead get us out of the Middle East.鈥�
So where does that leave Mr. Trump and his impulse to get out?
Don鈥檛 expect anything fast to happen, Mr. Pollack says. Instead he expects the recent pattern of several hundred troops out here, then a few hundred back in there as things happen, to continue for a while.
鈥淥ne of the interesting things about this is that Trump and Obama represent the isolationist and retrenchment extremes of their parties,鈥� Mr. Pollack says. He expects the more traditional and internationalist moderates of the Republican leadership will stand in the way of any precipitous withdrawals by Mr. Trump 鈥� the same way he says Democratic moderates toned down Mr. Obama鈥檚 disengagement.
But he says the writing is on the wall when it comes to the trajectory of the U.S. in the Middle East 鈥� especially if Mr. Trump wins reelection.
鈥淚f he gets a second term,鈥� Mr. Pollack says, 鈥淚 wouldn鈥檛 want to bet we鈥檇 be there in any significant numbers by the time he leaves office.鈥�
