Under siege, are Iran鈥檚 rulers likely to do more than survive?
| LONDON
In the aftermath of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani鈥檚 assassination, Iranians rallied around the flag, filling the streets in a mass outpouring of grief and anti-American fervor that the country鈥檚 leadership held up as a sign of continued support.
So, too, were the expressions of national pride in the retaliatory missiles fired at U.S. bases in Iraq.
But then came the crash of the Ukrainian airliner, with the death of all 176 aboard, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps鈥� delayed admission it had shot the plane down in error. The moment of flag-waving support passed as quickly as it arrived.
Why We Wrote This
What do Iranians want from their leaders 鈥� just to do a better job ruling, or fundamental change? In the latest mass protests, one Iranian analyst says, 鈥渢he voice of the people鈥� is starting to emerge.
The stunning admission sent outraged Iranians back into the streets. Layered over it all is a deep, abiding dissatisfaction with the government鈥檚 stewardship of Iran鈥檚 U.S.-sanction-afflicted economy, which just weeks earlier 鈥撀爁ollowing an overnight fuel price hike 鈥� had spawned its own cycle of mass protest and brutal repression.
Amid the roller coaster of shocking events and fluctuating emotions, the Islamic Republic is reeling. And questions are being raised anew by Iranians about its legitimacy and whether its leaders can cope with the multitude of stresses from within and without, including new U.S. and European pressures.
Inside Iran, the protesters鈥� slogans are as radical as ever.
鈥淵ou incompetent leader! Resign, resign!鈥� rang one chant, referring to Iran鈥檚 supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 鈥淥ur enemy is right here! They are lying, it鈥檚 not America!鈥�
The latest protests represent a deepening of anti-regime pressures, now coming from a broader socio-economic base. Some introspection can be expected, analysts say, but the Islamic Republic鈥檚 primary instinct 鈥� successfully achieved for 40 years 鈥� is for survival.
鈥淭he level of pressure is unprecedented, because it is multi-layered,鈥� says Adnan Tabatabai, an Iran analyst and head of the Bonn-based Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient.
鈥淲hat is clear, after the November protests, the killing of Qassem Soleimani, and even the downing of this plane, is that the political self of the Islamic Republic is awakened, so there will be lots of debates,鈥� says Mr. Tabatabai. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 expect any meaningful opening of the political landscape, but people will at least want to see some measures of accountability for decision-making circles.
鈥淲hen people pour into the streets, the anger that they have 鈥� it is obviously accumulated anger, which explodes out of people, and leads to slogans that are maximalist,鈥� says Mr. Tabatabai. 鈥淚t鈥檚 quite understandable, but there is no real way to work with these slogans, because the [Islamic system] will not say, 鈥極h there are segments of our society which are calling for us to leave, so let鈥檚 think about leaving.鈥� That鈥檚 not going to happen.鈥�
Protests among poor and rich
Still, analysts say the current array of crises effectively cross Iran鈥檚 social and economic divides. Even as protests in November involved the lower classes and targeted President Hassan Rouhani, the new ones 鈥撀爏purred by revelations about a coverup of the plane crash 鈥撀爄nvolve the middle class and aim at the top leadership and IRGC for incompetence and lying.
Regime loyalists and even Guardsmen are disappointed and angry, Iranians say, that officials for days blamed mechanical failure for the crash, and repeatedly ruled out the IRGC mistakenly shooting down the plane. As evidence grew, from video, and photographs, and Western satellite data, the IRGC came clean with emotional apologies. Mr. Rouhani called it a 鈥渄isastrous mistake.鈥�
Amid the turmoil, three top female anchors on state-run television channels have resigned, with one posting on Instagram: 鈥淔orgive me for telling you lies from state TV for 13 years.鈥�
At one university, students were filmed as they avoided stepping on U.S. and Israeli flags painted on the ground. President Donald Trump issued praise for the 鈥渨onderful Iranian protesters鈥� 鈥� and added to his 鈥渕aximum pressure鈥� campaign by imposing new sanctions.
While the risk of immediate war with the United States eased, Britain, France, and Germany added to pressures Tuesday by triggering, for the first time by Europe, a dispute mechanism built into the Iran nuclear deal that, if not resolved, could lead to a snapback of U.N. sanctions. They were reacting to Iran鈥檚 announcement last week that it would no longer adhere to enrichment limitations, steps taken because the U.S. unilaterally pulled out of the deal in 2018.
Domestically, criticism of Iran swerved into the sports world, as well. The country鈥檚 only female Olympic medalist defected, the third sports personality in three months to leave Iran.
鈥淚 am one of the millions of oppressed women in Iran whom they鈥檝e been playing for years. ... I wore whatever they told me and repeated whatever they ordered,鈥� said Kimia Alizadeh, who won a bronze medal in Taekwondo at the 2016 Rio Olympics.
鈥淣one of us matter to them, we are just tools,鈥� she wrote in a statement, adding her condolences to the people of Iran, 鈥渨ho are always in mourning.鈥�
Amid the mounting pressures, analysts note the Islamic Republic has faced crises in the past and always found a degree of flexibility to ease pressure inside, or deescalate it with enemies like the U.S. and Israeli outside.
The Iran-Iraq War, for example, ended in 1988 when Iran accepted a cease-fire, ironically after the U.S. Navy shot down an Iranian passenger jet, killing all 290 aboard.
Video has now surfaced of Ayatollah Khamenei, then Iran鈥檚 president, reacting to that event. 鈥淵ou shot down our plane ... and now you come out simply saying 鈥榃e made a mistake.鈥� Seriously? You shut your mouth,鈥� he says, using an offensive term in Persian.
Some protesters now hold banners using those exact words, to criticize their leader鈥檚 response this time: 鈥淵ou made a mistake? Just shut your mouth.鈥�
鈥淭hey don鈥檛 learn their lessons鈥�
Another moment of what Mr. Khamenei called 鈥渉eroic flexibility鈥� came in 2013, when Iran decided to join negotiations that led to the landmark 2015 nuclear deal. Likewise, analysts say the assassination of General Soleimani could be used as a pretext to make changes, such as opening the political space 鈥撀爀specially with elections to Parliament due on Feb. 21.
鈥淚f they are clever, yes, but they are so obstinate,鈥� says an Iranian analyst in Europe who requested anonymity. But already this week several key reformist lawmakers were barred from running again for office.
鈥淭his is the thing with ideologues, [they] keep closing their eyes and their ears and put their head in the sand until it is almost too late, and then do a last-minute turnaround,鈥� the analyst says. 鈥淭hey鈥檝e done this again and again. They don鈥檛 learn their lessons, unfortunately.鈥�
As Iran鈥檚 leaders measure the need for change, students have led the way in challenging their legitimacy and truthfulness 鈥撀爄n part because so many of those on the doomed aircraft were their colleagues, flying to Canada for further studies.
鈥淭hese days, Iran is full of sadness and mourning. We wash away blood with more blood, we add pain upon pain. ... We experience one crisis after another,鈥� wrote the students of Amir Kabir University in Tehran, where the protests have been noisiest.
鈥淭oday we are surrounded by 鈥榚vil鈥� from every quarter,鈥� the students wrote in a statement, noting that government economic policies and 鈥減olitical suppression鈥� brought people to the 鈥渆nd of their tether,鈥� only to find a new shadow of war overhead.
The statement declares that the U.S. presence in the Middle East 鈥渉as produced nothing but increasing insecurity and chaos,鈥� and that their duty as citizens is to be against both the 鈥渙ppressive government鈥� [of Iran] and 鈥渋mperialist power鈥� [of America].
Voice of the people
According to one veteran Iranian analyst in Tehran, who asked not to be identified further, the students address common concerns.
鈥淭he expressions of the students are those of the minds of millions of Iranians,鈥� the analyst says. 鈥淪omething is boiling, something is starting to emerge as the voice of the people, as a focus on what they want 鈥� actually, on what we don鈥檛 want.鈥�
One bright spot for Iran鈥檚 leaders was the nationwide turnout for General Soleimani鈥檚 funeral, which he says was 鈥渋mpressive.鈥�
鈥淚 think it showed the power of the Islamic Republic, how this regime survived for the last 40 years,鈥� says the analyst. 鈥淭heir base of power is because of this. There is a huge social base that goes to elections. ... But the bad economy, the sanctions, has made lots of these people suffer. So where will it show? The people are in trouble, where will it come out?鈥�
The answer to that question will determine how Iran鈥檚 leaders can, once again, solve their problems, despite the current erosion of legitimacy.
鈥淗onestly, it doesn鈥檛 even matter if they are legitimate or not,鈥� says the Iran analyst in Europe. 鈥淭he only thing that matters is, can they get Iran out of this mess? That鈥檚 all people care about, they don鈥檛 care about legitimate or not. Can they fix this mess? That鈥檚 it.鈥�
