Venezuela crisis: In Latin America, tough Trump rhetoric increasingly in vogue
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Howard LaFranchi Staff writer
| United Nations, N.Y.
Vice President Mike Pence knows first-hand about the shift among South American countries to a more interventionist approach to Venezuela鈥檚 economic collapse and deepening 鈥� and spreading 鈥� humanitarian crisis.
Far less clear, some regional experts say, is whether a tougher stance toward Venezuelan President Nicol谩s Maduro gives Latin American countries any leverage to force changes in their collapsing neighbor.
A year ago when Mr. Pence stopped off in Bogot谩 as part of a swing through the region, his hint that the United States included military force among its 鈥渕any options鈥� for addressing Venezuela鈥檚 鈥渢ragedy of tyranny鈥� met with a stern retort from then-Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos.
Why We Wrote This
Waves of refugees do more than strain resources in host countries. They also raise concerns of an angrier and more extreme form of politics that could undermine democracy.
鈥淪ince friends must tell [friends] the truth, I have told Vice President Pence the possibility of military intervention shouldn鈥檛 even be considered,鈥� Mr. Santos said.
But that was then.
At the United Nations two weeks ago, Pence attended a special meeting called by Colombia鈥檚 new president, Iv谩n Duque, on South America鈥檚 expanding refugee crisis spawned by Venezuela鈥檚 downward spiral. He couldn鈥檛 have helped but notice the shift.
Mr. Duque 鈥� who earlier in September had refused to sign on to a declaration of regional leaders opposing any use of force to end Venezuela鈥檚 crisis 鈥� pulled no punches in asserting that the 鈥渄ictatorship鈥� of Mr. Maduro must be brought to an end. And he thanked Pence for cautioning the Venezuelan government not to 鈥渋ntimidate鈥� its neighbors, which have already received nearly 2 million Venezuelans fleeing their country鈥檚 dire straits.
Colombia鈥檚 embrace of a hard-line approach to Venezuela reflects a broader shift across Latin America to more interventionist rhetoric as the region grows increasingly alarmed at the spillover from their neighbor鈥檚 humanitarian and political crisis.
President Trump, in his speech to the annual meeting of the UN General Assembly in September, took a moment to slam Maduro and his destruction via 鈥渟ocialism鈥� of a once-wealthy country.
Yet while virtually no one sees Mr. Trump鈥檚 insistence that 鈥渁ll options are on the table鈥� actually leading to a US military invasion to topple Maduro, some regional experts say the hardening tone reflects mounting concerns that the reverberations of Venezuela鈥檚 collapse could destabilize the region if unaddressed.
What the crisis could beget
Among the fears: that the humanitarian crisis and arrival of thousands of destitute refugees could spawn nationalist political movements and foment regional tensions, potentially setting back Latin America鈥檚 embrace of democracy and rising prosperity.
鈥淲e hear more and more ideas like mass deportations of Venezuelans and claims of the crime and poverty they are bringing with them,鈥� says Brian Fonseca, a Latin America expert and director of the Gordon Institute for Public Policy at Florida International University in Miami. Such ideas, he says, are 鈥渁 ripple effect of this crisis that some are worried has the potential to really shift the political discourse in their countries and feed an angry backlash and nationalist movements.鈥�
鈥淚f there鈥檚 an increasingly hard line on Venezuela and urgent regional demands for answers to its crisis,鈥� he adds, 鈥渋t is in part because some leaders and others believe we could wake up in a decade and see some serious social and political fractures shaking the region 鈥� and could trace it back forensically to the Venezuela crisis.鈥�
To illustrate the kind of political impact that South America鈥檚 鈥渕igration crisis鈥� could have, Mr. Fonseca cites the Mariel boatlift of 1980, which resulted in more than 125,000 Cubans leaving for South Florida over a matter of months.
鈥淔lorida and indeed US politics are still feeling the impact of that migration today,鈥� he says, 鈥渁nd I don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 exaggerating to consider a potential impact of double that or more鈥� from Venezuelan migrants arriving across South America.
Already more than 1 million Venezuelans have fled to neighboring Colombia, with as many as 5,000 more arriving each day, according to the Colombian government. Another 400,000 are in Peru, with smaller numbers arriving in Ecuador, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Mexico 鈥� and Florida.
Another reason for the shift in thinking toward Venezuela is that the socialist revolution declared by Mr. Maduro鈥檚 predecessor, Hugo Ch谩vez, has lost ideological soulmates in the region, Fonseca says. At the same time, a number of less confrontational leaders have been replaced with others espousing a more interventionist approach. Colombia鈥檚 switch from Santos to Duque is a case in point.
鈥淎t one point you had allies of Venezuela across Latin America. Maduro could count Argentina, Peru, and Ecuador among his friends, but that鈥檚 pretty much dried up,鈥� Fonseca says 鈥� citing Bolivia and Nicaragua as exceptions.
Shift not lost on Venezuela
Indeed Venezuelan officials are well aware of the regional shift in attitude.
After the country鈥檚 foreign minister, Jorge Arreaza, was barred from entering the meeting Colombia hosted at the UN on the migration crisis and featuring the American vice-president, he blasted his neighbors attending the meeting as 鈥済obiernos sicarios鈥� 鈥� hitmen governments 鈥� carrying out Washington鈥檚 violent agenda toward Venezuela.
The same day Mr. Arreaza made the 鈥渉itmen鈥� comment, five South American countries plus Canada signed a petition to the International Criminal Court asking that it investigate the Maduro government for 鈥済ross human rights violations鈥� including murder, torture, and forced disappearance.
Yet while others agree that more Latin American countries are sounding more like the Trump administration when it comes to Venezuela, they add that in truth Washington has little appetite to do much beyond the occasional sanctions it slaps on members of the Maduro government (as it did again last week).
That leaves South American countries talking tough, but carrying very little in the way of a stick, they add.
鈥淟atin America without the US is not going to make any meaningful changes in Venezuela, they don鈥檛 have the leverage and they don鈥檛 have the political will to take actions that could compel a change in behavior,鈥� says Eric Farnsworth, vice-president of the Americas Society and Council of the Americas in Washington.
On other hand, he agrees that a worsening migration crisis could prompt actions that could increase tensions and political upheaval. 鈥淭hese countries just don鈥檛 have the capacity to absorb these refugee flows, so at some point something is going to snap.鈥�
The Florida angle
Venezuela has indeed lost regional friends over the past year, Mr. Farnsworth says. But he also notes that the 鈥淢aduro regime鈥� has survived longer than many predicted 鈥� and he wonders if it might hold on long enough to see Latin America return to a more traditional perspective of non-interference in neighbors鈥� affairs.
鈥淭here鈥檚 no doubt that Latin America has moved incrementally closer to an uncharacteristic interventionist stance 鈥� in part as a result of a new crop of leaders 鈥� and that this movement has sped up with a humanitarian crisis that is affecting all these countries鈥� interests,鈥� Farnsworth says. 鈥淏ut the question now is whether anything meaningful happens to change Venezuela鈥檚 course before the political pendulum swings again.鈥�
Could such a swing even include Trump? Fonseca of Florida International notes that at the UN the president floated the idea of meeting with Maduro to, in Trump鈥檚 words, 鈥渢ake care of Venezuela鈥� 鈥� and he wonders if Trump might have another 鈥淣orth Korea-type initiative鈥� up his sleeve.
If so, Fonseca cautions that Florida politics are sensitive enough to Venezuela鈥檚 calamity and Maduro鈥檚 grip on the country that Trump would face a very narrow window for a Venezuela diplomatic gambit that could appear unseemly to expat Venezuelans and other Latino voters in the Sunshine State.
鈥淚t would have to be after the midterms, of course, but it would also have to come well before 2020,鈥� he says. 鈥淣o one can afford to write off the state of Florida.鈥�
