Tillerson fired: Why top diplomat was never a good fit with disruptor-in-chief
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In the end, Rex Tillerson was simply not enough of a disruptor to last as President Trump鈥檚 secretary of State.
Time and again over the course of Mr. Trump鈥檚 first year in office, his chief diplomat sounded a cautious and conventional note on foreign policy matters that the president had chosen as issues on which he could stand apart from the traditional approach to American statecraft.
The president who came into office on an anti-establishment wave seems to have realized fairly quickly that he had picked a solidly establishment secretary of State.聽 But it wasn鈥檛 until Tuesday, a little over a year into his presidency, that Trump announced that Mr. Tillerson was out 鈥 to be replaced by CIA Director Mike Pompeo.
White House aides suggested the disruptor-in-chief wanted to make the change before embarking on perhaps his most unorthodox diplomatic initiative yet 鈥 a sit-down meeting 鈥渂efore May,鈥 as Trump announced last week, with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
But the signs of a missed fit between a convention-scorning president and a business-leader-turned-foreign-policy traditionalist, who was informed of his dismissal while on an official tour of Africa, had piled up over the past year.
Tillerson begged Trump not to up-end an already fragile and torn Middle East by moving the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. An annoyed president dismissed Tillerson鈥檚 (and much of his national security team鈥檚) concerns and forged ahead on the embassy move.
The president ridiculed Tillerson鈥檚 insistence on diplomacy 鈥 and a reliance on traditional pressure-intensification measures such as sanctions 鈥 to address North Korea鈥檚 advancing nuclear weapons and missile programs, publicly chiding his diplomat even as he was in Asia that he was 鈥渨asting his time鈥 with talks.
And perhaps most grating for Trump, Tillerson backed sticking with former President Barack Obama鈥檚 signature foreign-policy achievement, the Iran nuclear deal, advocating working with European allies to strengthen the accord rather than simply jettisoning it.
Iran on his mind
Indeed some foreign policy analysts say that while the writing of Tillerson鈥檚 departure has been on the wall for some time, it was very likely unreconciled differences over the Iran deal that 鈥 along with the coming North Korea summit 鈥 spelled the top diplomat鈥檚 unceremonious firing.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think people are giving enough weight to the differences over the Iran nuclear deal in explaining why, for this president, Tillerson had to go,鈥 says Harry Kazianis, director of defense studies at the Center for the National Interest in Washington. 鈥淚t鈥檚 been very clear that Trump has hated this deal since Day One and has been set on getting the US out 鈥 and yet there he was with a national security team, led by Tillerson and H. R. McMaster, that insisted on the disaster it would be to pull out every time the deal came up.鈥 聽
In comments Tuesday on his snap decision to replace Tillerson with Mr. Pompeo, Trump made it clear that differences over the Iran deal were uppermost in his mind as he made a national security staff change that had been rumored for months.
鈥淸Tillerson and I] disagreed on things [like] the Iran deal,鈥 Trump told reporters as he departed the White House for a trip to California to tout his signature border wall project. 鈥淲e were not thinking the same. With Mike Pompeo, we have a similar thought process.鈥
Trump went on to underscore his conclusion that Pompeo 鈥 who unlike Tillerson had publicly supported candidate Trump鈥檚 presidential bid 鈥 will be a better fit with his national security vision.
鈥淚'm really at a point,鈥 he added, 鈥渨here we're getting very close to having the cabinet and other things that I want.鈥
Some analysts heard in Trump鈥檚 鈥渧ery close鈥 comment a hint that changes in the national security staff are not quite complete. Indeed Mr. Kazianis predicts that General McMaster, Trump鈥檚 national security adviser, is probably also not long for the Trump White House.
Still, for all his preference for anti-establishment thinking, Trump confirmed in making Pompeo his top diplomat an established truism about the secretary of State. Longtime diplomats and experts in American diplomatic history all say that the mark of a successful secretary of State is one who has the trust of the president and works well with him.
As Trump said Tuesday, 鈥淚've worked with Mike Pompeo now for quite some time鈥 We're always on the same wavelength. The relationship has been very good, and that's what I need as secretary of State.鈥
Clearly Trump and Tillerson never established that critical 鈥渨avelength,鈥 which experts deem essential.
Developing a rapport
鈥淭he key to the success and indeed the longevity of any secretary of State is his or her relationship with the president 鈥 and it鈥檚 very clear that rapport never developed between Donald Trump and Rex Tillerson,鈥 says Karl Inderfurth, a former assistant secretary of State for South Asian affairs in the Clinton administration and a former White House national security staffer during the Carter administration.
On the other hand, Mr. Inderfurth says he has seen indications that Pompeo could be of the temperament to establish (or perhaps develop further) the all-important 鈥渞apport鈥 with the president.
Inderfurth says he recalls being surprised when he came upon the CIA director on 鈥淔ace the Nation鈥 last Sunday. 鈥淢y first thought was, 鈥榃hat the heck is the CIA director doing on a national news program discussing national security affairs, that鈥檚 very unusual,鈥 鈥 he says. 鈥淏ut then after getting over my surprise I was quite impressed by how deferential and really obsequious Pompeo was toward the president, how he kept repeating how on top of every issue the president is,鈥 he adds.
鈥淚 think we鈥檝e learned that this president requires that kind of deferential treatment not just publicly but behind closed doors as well,鈥 Inderfurth says. 鈥淎nd it鈥檚 quite clear that Tillerson, while trying to establish a relationship with the president, never fully deferred to Donald Trump鈥檚 my-way-or-the-highway approach but saw it as his job to pursue America鈥檚 over-arching diplomatic interests.鈥
Whether Pompeo 鈥 a former Republican congressman from Kansas who displayed little use for his party鈥檚 internationalist foreign-policy mainstream 鈥 will fully jell with the president鈥檚 style remains to be seen. But analysts note that as CIA director he quickly adapted tasks like presenting the daily intelligence briefing in a manner that fit this president. And Pompeo seems to be on the Trump 鈥渨avelength鈥 on key issues.
鈥淧ompeo all along has been of the view that the Iran deal has got to go,鈥 notes Kazianis of the Center for the National Interest.
What is unclear at this point is what stance Pompeo will take vis-脿-vis Russia 鈥 whether he will fall in line with Trump in giving Russia a pass on its growing global aggressiveness (and specifically on interference in the 2016 election) or will stake out something of a more independent approach as Tillerson tried to do.
Final jab at Russia
Tillerson took one final swipe at Russia Monday 鈥 even as he returned from his shortened Africa trip 鈥 declaring Russia 鈥渃learly鈥 responsible for a poison attack in Britain that targeted a former Russian spy who had turned Vladimir Putin critic.
Even though he knew he was finished in his job, Tillerson expressed solidarity with the British government 鈥 which earlier had hinted the attack could prompt an invoking of NATO鈥檚 Article 5, which calls for mutual defense among Alliance members. The attack would 鈥渢rigger a response,鈥 Tillerson told reporters aboard his return flight to Washington.
The final jab at Russia did not go unnoticed.
鈥淪ecretary Tillerson鈥檚 firing comes one day after he once again spoke out against Russia when the President would not,鈥 said Sen. Chris Coons (D) of Delaware in a statement Tuesday. On Monday the White House 鈥 which Senator Coons said 鈥渉as notably refused to address the real threats that we face from Russia鈥 鈥 pointedly declined to join British Prime Minister Theresa May in blaming Russia for the poison attack. Trump agreed in a phone call with Prime Minister May Tuesday that Russia must be held accountable for the attack.
Yet as important as the growing challenge posed by Russia may be, some analysts say it was more than anything Trump鈥檚 sudden decision to engage with North Korea 鈥 and a desire to have a national security team to his liking 鈥 that prompted Tillerson鈥檚 departure now.
鈥淚 think that once Trump made the decision to take on what may be the biggest superpower summit since the Cold War,鈥 Kazianis says, 鈥渉e also realized that he鈥檚 going to want around him a team that he knows he can trust.鈥