Trump's move on Iran deal? At its core, a compromise with his cabinet.
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| Washington
Donald Trump鈥檚 presidency has given new meaning to the phrase 鈥渢eam of rivals.鈥
Under President Abraham Lincoln, it meant bringing former political foes from his own party into the cabinet. Under President Franklin Roosevelt, it meant forming a diverse, bipartisan cabinet that would present conflicting points of view, allowing the president to draw his own informed conclusions on policy.
For President Trump, it has meant 鈥 at least on international relations 鈥 cabinet and other top advisers at odds with the boss, pitting a more stay-the-course foreign policy against some of the president鈥檚 more dramatic, and often nationalist, impulses. It is a conflict that has increasingly burst into the open.
Trump鈥檚 decision Friday to 鈥渄ecertify鈥 the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal presents a stark example. His advisers wanted him to declare that Iran is still in compliance with the accord, which aims to limit Iran鈥檚 nuclear program to civilian purposes, and that the deal is in America's national interest. But Trump rejected that advice, forcing his advisers to find a compromise.
鈥淭here are some issues that unite these advisers, and one is not blowing up the Iran deal altogether,鈥 says Elizabeth Saunders, an associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University. 鈥淚t鈥檚 Trump versus everybody on his team.鈥
Trump did not quit the Iran deal outright, but instead said Iran is not complying, and sent the matter to Congress, which will have 60 days to set up new conditions for US participation in the deal. During that period, it can decide whether to introduce or restore sanctions on Iran. Decertification is allowed under the multinational accord, but imposing sanctions is not.
鈥淲e will not continue down a path whose predictable conclusion is more violence, more terror, and the very real threat of Iran鈥檚 nuclear breakout,鈥 Trump said.
This victory for the 鈥渕ainstreamers鈥 who dominate Trump鈥檚 national security team was not a foregone conclusion. When Trump took office, his original team included the controversial national security adviser Michael Flynn, as well as nationalist firebrands Stephen Bannon and Sebastian Gorka. All three are now gone, with Army Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster taking over as national security adviser and John Kelly, a Marine Corps general, as chief of staff.
鈥淭he mainstreamers now control the bureaucratic process,鈥 says Thomas Wright, a senior fellow on foreign policy at the Brookings Institution. 鈥淚t doesn鈥檛 mean they can get everything they want, but they can block things that they don鈥檛 particularly want.鈥
That has meant preventing outreach to Russian President Vladimir Putin, preventing a trade war with China, and reaffirming support for the mutual defense principles of NATO, Mr. Wright notes.
The administration is working hard to present a united front, telling reporters the entire national security team is behind Trump's Iran decision. But that image of unity has been undercut by the recent slew of stories about Secretary of State Rex Tillerson reportedly calling Trump a 鈥渕oron鈥 鈥 鈥 and threatening to resign. Secretary Tillerson has denied the threat, but pointedly did not deny the slur on Trump鈥檚 intelligence (although his State Department spokeswoman did deny it).
And Trump has very publicly undercut top members of his foreign policy team, particularly Tillerson. Trump鈥檚 tweets this month on North Korea, saying that Tillerson was 鈥渨asting his time鈥 trying to negotiate with the North Korean leader, struck a jarring tone. 鈥淪ave your energy Rex,鈥
Trump鈥檚 feud with Sen. Bob Corker (R) of Tennessee, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has also fed the narrative of a mercurial president at odds with his top advisers. Once considered a prospect for Trump's running mate and then secretary of State, Senator Corker told reporters that a handful of top Trump advisers were keeping the country from 鈥渃haos,鈥 warned that the president could trigger 鈥淲orld War III,鈥 and called the White House an 鈥渁dult day care.鈥 Trump blamed Corker for the Iran deal (though the senator did not support its original passage), and mocked his slight stature.
Fissures in the GOP
Trump鈥檚 unorthodox style, combined with his newness to foreign policy and to government in general, has made for an unsettling stew to some observers. But behind all the palace intrigue there sit more fundamental questions: Where, in fact, is Trump going with a foreign policy predicated on a campaign slogan of 鈥淎merica First,鈥 and what, if anything, do the tensions over his foreign policy direction say about the Republican Party?
The answers, analysts say, begin not with Trump but with the sweep of Republican history going back decades.
鈥淚f there is a division between Trump and his cabinet on foreign policy, it only reflects longstanding fissures within the GOP on the general subject,鈥 says historian David Pietrusza. 鈥淚t goes beyond the Iran deal or Korea. It goes beyond neocons and Iraq.鈥
The division also extends beyond the great 1952 presidential rivalry between isolationist Robert Taft and internationalist Dwight Eisenhower, back to the 鈥淎merica First鈥 debates preceding Pearl Harbor, and even to hashing out whether the US should join the League of Nations, Mr. Pietrusza says.
In the modern era, however, the America First ethos has not resided in the White House 鈥 until Trump. And so for the nation, this is a signal moment.
Some describe the tension between Trump and his cabinet as 鈥渁nti-establishment鈥 vs. 鈥渆stablishment.鈥 Tillerson, perhaps, belongs in a third category 鈥 like Trump, an outsider, as one new to government after a career in business, but also with an 鈥渆stablishment鈥 seal of approval. Tillerson came to Trump recommended by former Defense Secretary Robert Gates, former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and former national security adviser Stephen Hadley.
Policy tensions are also visible over international trade, most urgently on the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, the free trade pact among the US, Canada, and Mexico. Trump made clear during the campaign he wanted to rip up NAFTA, but then as president he backed off, after his secretaries of Agriculture and Commerce indicating areas where jobs would be lost if NAFTA ended 鈥 many of them populated by Trump voters.
This week, during an Oval Office visit with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Trump again suggested . If Mexico, Canada, and the US can鈥檛 make a deal, he said, the pact 鈥渨ill be terminated and that will be fine.鈥
'Pretty conventional'
Still, the earlier NAFTA decision and others 鈥 such as , despite his skepticism 鈥 demonstrate a willingness to hear out his advisers and change course.
James Carafano, a Heritage Foundation foreign policy expert who served on Trump鈥檚 transition team, calls the president鈥檚 foreign policy 鈥減retty conventional,鈥 and cites Trump鈥檚 decision to put the Iran nuclear deal in Congress鈥檚 lap as one example.
鈥淓urope ought to be pleased that the White House is listening to them,鈥 says Mr. Carafano.
鈥淭he core of his foreign policy is peace and stability in Western Europe, Asia, and the Middle East,鈥 he adds, citing Trump鈥檚 continuing commitment to NATO as one example. 鈥淲e鈥檙e not going to withdraw from the world. I don鈥檛 think anyone believes he鈥檚 an isolationist.鈥
Carafano points to Trump鈥檚 withdrawal from the Paris climate accord and his handling of the Iran deal as instructive. Neither are formal treaties, and President Obama could not have gotten either through Congress if he had tried, he notes: 鈥淪o in pulling out, it鈥檚 difficult to say he鈥檚 way out of the mainstream.鈥
As for the future of Trump鈥檚 national security team, questions abound. The predominance of 鈥渕ainstreamers鈥 on his team came in part from his love of military generals and because there wasn鈥檛 much of a 鈥渂ench,鈥 says Wright of the Brookings Institution.
But 鈥渋n time, he will find kindred spirits or people who will be more aligned with what he wants to do,鈥 says Wright. 鈥淪ome of those will be opportunists, others may be true believers. But I think as he finds people, he may very well try to change the script and remove some of the mainstream elements.鈥