海角大神

Within hours of the Bastille Day terrorist attack in Nice, French President Fran莽ois Hollande was pledging to ramp up France鈥檚 role in the war on the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

Soon after, Secretary of State John Kerry, in Moscow after having marked Bastille Day with French officials in Paris, called Syria 鈥� home to the Islamic State 鈥� the 鈥渋ncubator鈥� of the recent horrendous attacks like the one in Nice Thursday. He pledged a redoubled effort to defeat IS and end the war in Syria.

But with IS now advising its followers around the world to stay home and wreak havoc on the 鈥渋nfidels鈥� they live among 鈥� rather than traveling to Syria and Iraq to wage jihad 鈥� is Syria still the key to ending IS鈥檚 expanding global appeal?

Would crushing IS in Syria (and routing it from Mosul, the group鈥檚 last major holding in Iraq) bring to an end the attacks that in recent months have spiked in Europe which have also struck places as far-flung as Orlando, San Bernardino, Saudi Arabia, and Bangladesh?

A cyber-caliphate

Defeating IS in Syria and Iraq will be critical to ending the group鈥檚 global allure, experts in Islamist extremism say. But IS is now also a kind of cyber-caliphate as much as it is the physical one now crumbling under US-led pressure in Syria and Iraq. To that extent, the group and its sophisticated array of online magazines and Twitter feeds is likely to continue inspiring mass atrocities like the one in Nice for some time after its physical headquarters are destroyed.

鈥淒estroying ISIS, the caliphate, and its ideology will start its defeat, but it will only be the beginning of the end,鈥� says Fawaz Gerges, an expert in Islamist extremist movements at the London School of Economics and Political Science and author of 鈥淚SIS: A History.鈥�

鈥淚SIS has reached and inspired so many thousands through its external activities and outreach,鈥� he says, 鈥渢hat the attacks in its name won鈥檛 end the day after its defeat.鈥�

Moreover, Dr. Gerges warns that the next 12 months are likely to witness many more devastating attacks like the one in Nice as the 鈥渓one wolves鈥� IS has inspired take up the group鈥檚 mounting online admonitions to strike the caliphate鈥檚 foes from where they live.

Of course IS needs a secure physical site from which to direct some attacks and to inspire others. That means counter-ISIS efforts will have to be multi-faceted and incorporate both blunt force and more ephemeral efforts like counter-messaging campaigns, others say.

鈥淎 lot of the terrorism we鈥檙e seeing has some connective tissues to it, and some of it connects back to Syria and Iraq and to a physical presence for planning some of these attacks or for disseminating a message,鈥� says Matthew Levitt, director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy鈥檚 Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence. 鈥淏ut we鈥檙e also seeing the [IS] inspired attacks that are more loosely connected [to that physical site] and which will require redoubled counter-radicalization efforts,鈥� he adds. 鈥淭he reality is you need to deal with them all.鈥�

Assad's role

Indeed, Mr. Levitt says US and other Western leaders must not lose sight of the role Syrian President Bashar al-Assad continues to play in feeding radical Islamist activity in the region and globally through his continuing war on Syria鈥檚 Sunni population.

鈥淎 lot of the terrorism is driven not only by the so-called caliphate but also by the disillusionment and frustration that no one is doing anything about Assad,鈥� he says. 鈥淎s long as the US continues in this direction of 鈥楩orget Assad for now, let鈥檚 go after the terrorist groups,鈥� we鈥檒l lose ground in dealing with that piece of the terrorism threat.鈥�

IS appears to be preparing its followers for the day it no longer has its caliphate, the territory it controls and rules over with its harsh version of Islamic law.

In recent communications issued over its various social media platforms, IS appears to be responding to its loss of territory and the mounting difficulties would-be foreign fighters are encountering to reach Syria and Iraq.

Western intelligence officials say the group is already sending operatives out of Syria to neighboring countries like Lebanon, Jordan, and Libya, perhaps to try to establish or solidify new bases of operation. Gerges says that perhaps even more devastating to the group than the loss of its headquarters in Raqqa, Syria, will be the fall of Mosul, since it is in the group鈥檚 birthplace of Iraq.

But that loss of physical territory won鈥檛 occur for 8 to 12 months, Gerges predicts, during which time he says the group will do what it can to 鈥渓ash out鈥� at what it calls the 鈥渃rusaders鈥� attacking its self-declared state.

Countering the jihadist narrative

Of course breaking up the ISIS caliphate will be a key step in eventually ending the group鈥檚 sophisticated social media presence 鈥� and thus its ability to 鈥渋nspire鈥� disparate followers and lone-wolf attackers. But undermining the group鈥檚 appeal will be among the toughest challenges of the anti-IS campaign, others say.

鈥淭he cyber piece is particularly difficult, and Western nations are not well-equipped to deal with it,鈥� says Julianne Smith, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) with security and foreign policy experience at the White House and the Pentagon. 鈥淲e have not succeeded in delivering an effective counter narrative 鈥� we鈥檙e finding out it鈥檚 very difficult to deal with the cyber aspect of this.鈥�

Gerges sees echoes of the Orlando attack last month by the American-born son of Afghan immigrants in Thursday鈥檚 Nice attack. He and others caution that we don鈥檛 yet know what motivated the Nice attacker to drive a large truck into Bastille Day revelers, killing at least 84. But he says the method used 鈥� a vehicle as a ramming rod 鈥� has figured among the means of attack suggested online by IS for years.

Both the Orlando and Nice attackers appear to have been troubled men wrestling with identity issues and personal crises. The Orlando attacker, Omar Mateen, declared allegiance to IS even as he was carrying out his attack on a gay club 鈥� one he was known to have frequented. The Nice attacker was said to be enraged by a recent divorce, was not known to be particularly religious, but was said to engage in behaviors that would run counter to the strict moral code IS espouses.

鈥淗ow do you get to the mindset of a French-Tunisian man who drives a truck for a job and lives quietly in an apartment in Nice?鈥� Gerges says. 鈥淭he defeat of ISIS would begin the process of putting an end to the homegrown terrorists and lone wolves, but it doesn鈥檛 end the inspiration right away.鈥�

Addressing grievances

Ms. Smith at CNAS says developing an effective counter narrative to ISIS will be difficult in part because the jihadist message is easily accessible, while countering it will involve addressing deep-seated grievances, like racism and discrimination, that societies are in no mood to address.

鈥淚t鈥檚 hard to prevent a disenfranchised young individual from opening a laptop, finding these groups, and getting sucked into the narrative,鈥� she says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 all the more difficult because it will involve addressing long-term challenges, like integration, that are short-term political liabilities at a time of rising anti-immigration rhetoric.鈥�

Levitt at the Washington Institute says a recent trip to France demonstrated to him that the French 鈥� who are dealing with thousands of returning fighters in addition to those totally off the radar like the Nice attacker 鈥� are taking some crucial steps at home in addition to taking the fight to IS.

鈥淭hey鈥檙e especially focused on how to deal with online radicalization, and they鈥檙e trying to get a handle on the problem of the Europe-wide trafficking in arms,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hey have a lot going on, but like everybody else, they are playing catch-up.鈥�