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The ousting of Islamic State fighters from Fallujah was supposed to make Baghdad safer, by showing that the jihadists could be defeated and deprived of a safe haven from which to attack the Iraqi capital.

But at midnight on Saturday, just days after Iraq declared victory in Fallujah, a truck bomb detonated in the central Karrada district, killing 215 people in the deadliest single bombing Baghdad has seen in a decade.聽

For Baghdad鈥檚 embattled residents, the blast was revenge for the loss of Fallujah, and yet more tragedy at the hands of IS, also known as ISIS 鈥� which they were told was on the run and facing defeat.

鈥淭he suffering of our neighbors is unbearable. They are in shock. Children are afraid,鈥� says Amal Hussein, a recent college graduate whose sister鈥檚 family lives a block from the attack. Her sister, Zeinab, was inconsolable; four people died in their damaged building. 鈥淲e spent all night praying for these people.鈥�

While Iraqis mourn, again, analysts say the link between the Fallujah victory and the Baghdad bomb is a microcosm in Iraq of a broader phenomena. As the jihadist group loses ground in battlefields from Iraq and Syria to Libya, it is demonstrating that it can morph its tactics to conduct spectacular suicide attacks with conventional terrorist tools, from the heart of Europe to southern Asia.

In the past week, as the holy Muslim month of Ramadan has been drawing to a close, IS claimed a string of high-profile events, including a triple suicide attack against Istanbul鈥檚 main airport; a raid and hostage-taking in Dhaka, Bangladesh; and, as well as the Baghdad bomb, three separate suicide attacks in Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Pentagon says that more than 9,500 airstrikes against IS targets in support of anti-IS fighters of all stripes have eroded the self-declared 鈥淚slamic Caliphate鈥� by a third in the past two years. In late May, IS spokesman Abu Mohammed al-Adnani acknowledged the territorial losses and even presaged more to come, but called for attacks during Ramadan, especially by followers in Europe and America. He promised that IS would strike even if it is 鈥渄riven into the desert.鈥�

鈥淲hat we see right now is a lashing out of the group,鈥� says Shiraz Maher, deputy director of the International Center for the Study of Radicalism (ICSR) at King鈥檚 College London. 鈥淭hey are losing ground, they are being squeezed, but I don鈥檛 think they are suffering an existential loss of territory at this moment.鈥澛�

The variety of tactics should not be a surprise, he says, considering how IS actions and calls to loyalists can spark local actions, creating a 鈥渇orce multiplier鈥� that makes IS different things to different people.

鈥淲e tend to have a static view of what IS is,鈥� says Mr. Maher, author of the newly released book 鈥淪alafi-Jihadism: The History of an Idea.鈥�

鈥淚f you are a Parisian drinking in the Marais, it鈥檚 a terrorist group that guns you down when you are socializing with friends on a Friday night. If you are another Syria rebel 鈥� it鈥檚 an aggressive and annoying insurgency that is acting against your interests. And if you are in Raqqa [IS headquarter city in Syria], it鈥檚 a proto-state,鈥� says Maher.聽

鈥淪o the idea that it should be one or the other is wrong. It鈥檚 a kaleidoscopic movement that can be all of these things at the same time.鈥�

Bid to push Iraqis to turn on each other

The changing nature of IS and how it strikes is one reason Baghdadis were so surprised at the scale of the weekend attack. The Karrada district is largely Shiite, like the militias who controversially joined the Iraqi Army in pushing IS out of Fallujah.

But military victory created a sense of receding danger, on top of positive spin by politicians about marching on Mosul 鈥撀營raq鈥檚 second largest city, held by IS since June 2014.

鈥淒aesh is not losing on the security file, but on the military file only,鈥� says Hisham Alhashimi, a security analyst in Baghdad, using the Arabic acronym for IS. 鈥淭hey are changing their method from an ideological war to a secret, underground one. They are reactivating these [bombing] operations, and the tempo will sometimes be up and sometimes be down.鈥�

UN Iraq envoy Jan Kubis said IS fighters who have 鈥渟uffered defeats at the battlefront are seeking to avenge their losses by targeting vulnerable civilians.鈥�

Yet in Iraq, there is another purpose, says Mr. Alhashimi.

鈥淭hey are banking on [sparking] a sectarian war,鈥� he says. Ethnic cleansing swept Iraq in 2006-07, when Shiite militias and Sunni insurgents 鈥撀爑nder the name Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), the precursors to IS 鈥撀爇illed for their sect. 鈥淲e will see new, quality activities鈥�. They will increase their targeting of women and children more than before. Why? To make pressure on the government and the Iraqi army, to stop attacking them.鈥�

Despite military losses, IS not on back foot

The numbers of foreign recruits to IS are reportedly down by 90 percent, and anecdotal information indicates dissatisfaction among many foreign jihadists, at least some of whom have contacted diplomatic missions in Turkey asking for safe passage home.

In Washington, 鈥渙n the operational side there鈥檚 no illusion that they鈥檙e on the back foot,鈥� says Aaron Stein, an analyst at the Atlantic Council. 鈥淪o the planning for ISIS 2.0 is this exact question: What does ISIS turn into when it鈥檚 defeated territorially in these two places?鈥�

鈥淲e鈥檝e already seen this movie,鈥� says Mr. Stein. He notes that despite AQI being largely defeated by US surge troops and Sunni 鈥渁wakening鈥� allies less than a decade ago, 鈥渋t doesn鈥檛 take much to reconstitute themselves.鈥�

ISIS 2.0 鈥渨ill be an insurgent group,鈥� he says. Even in Kurdish areas where IS has been forced out there are frequent bombings, by 鈥渓eft-behind [IS] guys, acting like insurgents.鈥�

鈥淲hen they lose, I just think they will bundle themselves up and find another way. And they鈥檒l get smaller, and even more clandestine,鈥� says Stein. 鈥淵ou destroy them and they just keep growing back.鈥�

He says Turkey, which is so close that you can "smell things across the border" in Syria, is particularly vulnerable to attacks 鈥� even though IS "can鈥檛 bring down the government or gain territory in Turkey.鈥� Last week's Istanbul airport attack, perpetrated by three foreigners, killed 45.

What does victory look like?

One conundrum is how to define victory against such a flexible organization.

鈥淚鈥檓 not entirely sure that inflicting a sudden and massive loss of territory on [IS] is desirable,鈥� says Maher at ICSR.

He notes that, from the day after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center, a 鈥渞eally generous鈥� estimate of just 500 hardened Al Qaeda operatives managed to perpetuate conflict ever since. By contrast, IS has an estimated 30,000 active fighters who are far better trained and capable in arms and making bombs 鈥� thousands.

鈥淚f you just destroy their territory and these guys scatter into the wind 鈥� you have to find, and track, and keep tabs on them, and that is really difficult,鈥� says Maher. 鈥淎 few get through to Europe and regional countries, but in essence we know where the bulk of them are.鈥�

Follow Scott Peterson on Twitter at @peterson__scott聽