海角大神

As he devised the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations that are to resume in Jerusalem and Jericho Wednesday, Secretary of State John Kerry appears to have studied the most recent launch of talks in 2010 鈥� and then resolved this time to do the opposite.

The talks that get under way in Jerusalem will be between negotiators for the two sides and won鈥檛 start off with top leaders as they did before. Mr. Kerry insisted on a commitment from each side to stick to negotiations for nine months 鈥� after the last round collapsed after just three weeks.

Kerry didn鈥檛 make securing a freeze of Israeli settlements on Palestinian lands 鈥� the issue that derailed the 2010 round 鈥� a condition for the talks. He鈥檚 also placed something of a gag order on the negotiating parties 鈥� declaring that all sides have agreed that any news from the talks will come from him 鈥� in hopes of avoiding the rumors and public positioning that accompanied the 2010 talks.

鈥淜erry took a long look at what went wrong before, and now we鈥檙e seeing in these talks an effort to avoid those mistakes,鈥� says David Makovsky, director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 鈥淲hat he鈥檚 trying to do is avoid some of the traps of the past.鈥�

In October 2010, the talks commenced with the Israeli and Palestinian leaders, 鈥渁nd when they quickly reached an impasse, there was nowhere higher to go,鈥� Mr. Makovsky notes. The commitment to nine months of talks looks like a direct response to 2010鈥檚 quick collapse, he adds. And Kerry 鈥渋nsisting on keeping a close hand on what comes out publicly from the talks鈥� strikes Makovsky as an effort to nip in the bud the kind of 鈥渘egative messaging鈥� that tainted the last go-around.

鈥淭hese are the anti-2009-2010 talks,鈥� Makovsky says, adding, 鈥淲e鈥檒l have to see if that makes a difference.鈥�

Wednesday鈥檚 talks will launch amid very low expectations, the result of almost zero trust between the two sides. But if this latest round of negotiations has any chance of succeeding, it will be because of Kerry鈥檚 participation, his understanding of the pitfalls of the past 鈥� and his conviction that this time may be the last opportunity to resolve what he calls the 鈥済randdaddy鈥� of US diplomatic challenges.

For many naysayers, the major difference they see this time around 鈥� Kerry鈥檚 determination to restart a stalled peace process and the discipline he appears to have imposed on the parties 鈥� won鈥檛 be enough to overcome the high hurdles ahead. Israel鈥檚 announcement this week of permits for up to 1,200 new housing units on land occupied since the 1967 Arab-Israeli war is souring the atmosphere even before the talking starts, some say.

For others, Kerry鈥檚 stipulation in his July 30 announcement of the new talks that negotiators will address all of the 鈥渇inal-status issues鈥� of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict all but foretold the new round鈥檚 doom.

But demands that the talks take up all of the conflict鈥檚 issues without the usual 鈥渟equencing鈥� (under which the presumably easier issues were taken up first) actually came from the two parties to the negotiations, according to several sources. A key test for Kerry, they add, will be to keep this considerable challenge from sinking any hope of achieving anything over the coming nine months.

鈥淭he talk of 鈥榓ll issues鈥� is something that has entered the lexicon of both sides in this conflict increasingly over the last decade,鈥� says Daniel Levy, director of the Middle East-North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations in London.

According to Mr. Levy, 鈥淵ou can distinguish between the issues that have to be solved from 鈥�67,鈥� the border and security issues resulting from the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, 鈥渁nd those that emanate from 鈥�48鈥� 鈥� the questions of Palestinians refugees and Israel鈥檚 existence as a Jewish state that date from Israel鈥檚 independence in 1948.

鈥淚n many ways the 鈥�67 issues are much easier to solve,鈥� Levy says, 鈥渂ut the 鈥榓ll issues鈥� we鈥檙e hearing now is shorthand for the more difficult issues of 鈥�48.鈥�

The 鈥渁ll-or-nothing鈥� approach is something the Israeli and Palestinian leaders insisted on in their pre-talks discussions with Kerry, Makovsky says. What they were eschewing, he adds, is the kind of incremental, easiest-to-hardest approach that typified rounds of talks in the past.

Yet far from suggesting that the two sides are ready to address the conflict鈥檚 most difficult and emotional issues, an insistence on taking up all final-status issues indicates heightened resistance to an accord, regional experts say.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think either side is ready to deal with 鈥榓ll issues,鈥� 鈥� Levy says.

鈥淲hen you break it down, the demand to take up all the issues is predicated on each side wanting a deal on its terms,鈥� Makovsky says

Thus the challenge Kerry faces to overcome the roadblocks that an 鈥渆verything at once鈥� approach presents.

Actually putting all the issues on the table together from the outset 鈥渋s a dead-end option,鈥� Levy says. Kerry knows this, he adds, so what he expects to see the secretary of state engineering is an approach of 鈥渁ll the issues, but not all the issues simultaneously.鈥�

A careful reading of Kerry鈥檚 recent words suggests he still intends to press for borders and security first, Levy says. Noting that just this week Kerry reiterated publicly the US position that Israel鈥檚 settlements are illegal under international law, he adds, 鈥淚n so many words Kerry鈥檚 saying that the way you solve the settlements is to get the border set鈥� between Israel and a Palestinian state.

Kerry won鈥檛 be present at this week鈥檚 talks 鈥� the US will be represented by special envoy Martin Indyk, just as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will be represented by their envoys.

A key indicator of how far these talks get will be how much 鈥渘arrowing of differences鈥� the negotiating envoys are able to accomplish before the leaders are called in, Makovsky says.

鈥淐learly Kerry will have to come in at some point to break impasses, and that is going to have to be with the leaders,鈥� he says. If the grounds aren鈥檛 present for a 鈥渘arrowing of some of the easier gaps鈥� by the negotiators, Makovsky says, that will suggest 鈥渉ow much harder it鈥檚 going to be for the leaders to make the final calls.鈥�