Middle East peace talks: Finding believers amid the skeptics
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| Washington
The Israeli-Palestinian peace talks that Secretary of State John Kerry announced last week still have no date, and most regional experts are giving any resumed peace process long odds of success 鈥 especially as leaders from the two sides seem to pile on conditions for simply sitting down together.
Even the White House expressed what spokesman Jay Carney on Monday called 鈥渧ery cautious optimism鈥 about Mr. Kerry鈥檚 initiative, while many seasoned analysts of the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict see almost no chance that a comprehensive settlement can be negotiated in the coming year 鈥 roughly Kerry鈥檚 timeframe for the effort.
So why are others 鈥 among them some of the strongest skeptics about the chances of a comprehensive accord any time soon 鈥 supportive of the effort, and convinced that it can actually deliver something?
The simplest explanation is that, at least in the eyes of some, and after three years of almost no high-level contact between the two sides, talking will be better than not talking.
鈥淲hile one should be extremely cautious about any major progress in the immediate term,鈥 Kerry鈥檚 initiative nevertheless demonstrates that 鈥渢he Israelis and Palestinians are still able to talk to each other,鈥 says Hussein Ibish, a senior fellow at the American Task Force on Palestine in Washington. 鈥淲e鈥檝e gone from nothing to something,鈥 he adds, and 鈥測ou鈥檝e got to start with something.鈥 聽
But there are other reasons. Dialogue between Israelis and Palestinians despite the upheaval in the Middle East would send an important message to the region鈥檚 people, some experts argue. Frustrated Palestinian youths chafing at continued occupation may be less likely to launch a third intifada, especially if talks are accompanied by pressure-reducing steps like an Israeli prisoner release, others suggest. The Palestinian Authority, they add, would be less likely to launch tension-provoking initiatives on the international stage, such as seeking International Criminal Court (ICC) action on Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands.
Moreover, failure to reach a comprehensive peace accord does not rule out reaching interim agreements on some of the conflict鈥檚 more resolvable points of contention, some experts say.
A final peace accord 鈥渋s not really attainable at this point in time,鈥 but that means 鈥渨e need to settle for more modest objectives,鈥 says Gilead Sher, a former Israeli official with long involvement in the peace process who is now director of the Center for Applied Negotiations at the Tel Aviv Institute for National Security Studies.
A 鈥済radual and certain progress鈥 toward a 鈥渟eparation of two nation states鈥 is possible with agreements on issues such as borders, security, economic development measures, and even settlements, Mr. Sher believes. A key to achieving important initial steps would be to leave the most difficult 鈥渋dentity鈥 issues 鈥 the status of Jerusalem, and refugees 鈥 to be resolved later, he says.
鈥淏orders and security are attainable within the coming year,鈥 Sher says.
Others who are less optimistic about the talks leading anywhere say there are reasons the two leaders involved 鈥 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas 鈥 have agreed to them.
Mr. Netanyahu is dedicating much more attention to Iran and its nuclear program than to the Palestinian issue, Israel experts say, but that focus has the Israeli leader interested in nurturing ties with the US. And clearly a positive response to Kerry鈥檚 full-court press for resumed talks is better than a 鈥渘o鈥 for Netanyahu鈥檚 relations with the Obama administration.
Indeed, President Obama telephoned Netanyahu last week before Kerry made his announcement Friday, to encourage him to put Israel on board Kerry鈥檚 peace train.
In a similar way, Mr. Abbas has good reasons to climb aboard, even if prospects for the major steps the Palestinians want are not bright.聽
鈥淎bbas doesn鈥檛 think he can get a deal with Netanyahu,鈥 says Khalil Shikaki, a senior fellow at Brandeis University鈥檚 Crown Center for Middle East Studies. Still, Abbas sees in the talks the means of boosting his own 鈥渓egitimacy鈥 among West Bank Palestinians, he adds.
Any interim agreements that allow proposed economic development programs to go forward could improve conditions for Palestinians 鈥 and thus public support for Abbas, Mr. Shikaki says. Stepped up security cooperation between the two sides as a result of short-term confidence-building steps could also work in Abbas鈥檚 favor, he adds.
Shikaki, an expert on Palestinian public opinion, says Abbas鈥檚 agreement to join the talks is not without risks, however. If Israel agrees to some form of a settlement freeze, that would allow Abbas some freedom of 鈥渕ovement鈥 in the negotiations, he says.
But if settlement activity continues unabated, 鈥渢here will be tremendous pressure on Abbas to drop the talks and go to the ICC,鈥 Shikaki says.
And while few analysts believe recourse to the ICC would deliver quick or meaningful results to the Palestinians, such recourse would undoubtedly spell the end of Kerry鈥檚 peace initiative.