For US, new challenge from China has unexpected source
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Ned Temko Columnist
| London
America is facing a new China conundrum.
And the latest challenge isn鈥檛 from an assertive show of strength by Beijing. It has come, instead, from an unexpected source, at a potentially critical moment 鈥� just as the world鈥檚 two main rival powers have appeared to be edging toward the kind of diplomatic
reengagement that U.S. President Joe Biden has been seeking, with little success, for the past few聽years.
It鈥檚 the growing signs in recent weeks that China鈥檚 seemingly inexorable economic rise is聽running into head winds: slowing growth, flagging consumer demand, debt problems in the聽troubled construction sector, and rising unemployment, especially among the young.聽And the signs, too, of some homegrown irritants for Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onU.S.-China ties have been showing modest signs of improving. But sustaining that momentum may test both leaders鈥� ability to persevere in the face of challenging political and economic dynamics in Beijing.
First, late last month, came the sudden dismissal of Foreign Minister Qin Gang, a Xi prot茅g茅聽appointed to the post only months earlier. Then, barely two weeks ago, Mr. Xi replaced the聽top commanders in China鈥檚 elite nuclear missile force.
On one level, none of that is necessarily bad news for Washington. Mr. Biden has centered his聽increasingly assertive posture toward China on those two areas: economy and security.聽More specifically, his policy has been aimed at ensuring the United States can outpace China in cutting-edge technology, and, alongside U.S. allies, can constrain an increasingly assertive Chinese military聽posture.
This week, Mr. Biden is welcoming the leaders of Japan and South Korea for summit talks at聽Camp David 鈥� the latest in a series of moves to strengthen economic, political, and security ties聽among allies on China鈥檚 Indo-Pacific doorstep.
Still, the Biden administration knows that China鈥檚 economy, the world鈥檚 second-largest, is not聽about to crater suddenly as a result of its current challenges. Nor is the missile-force shakeup聽likely to influence the main thrust of Mr. Xi鈥檚 security policy: a major military buildup as part of an聽ever-more-assertive projection of China鈥檚 power beyond its borders.
The deeper concern is how Mr. Xi 鈥� who has amassed greater personal authority than any聽Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, on the promise of China displacing the U.S. as the world鈥檚聽preeminent power 鈥� will respond politically to his homegrown difficulties.
The worry is that he could now be doubly keen to project China鈥檚, and his own, strength abroad,聽and that he鈥檒l view any move toward a diplomatic thaw with America as a sign of weakness.
Mr. Biden himself gave voice to this concern at a fundraising event in Utah last week. Citing聽China鈥檚 economic slowdown, he said, 鈥淭hey鈥檝e got some problems. That鈥檚 not good, because聽when bad folks have problems, they do bad things."
Dim the glimmers of hope?
The reference appeared to be to the risk that China might ratchet up pressure on the island democracy聽of Taiwan, which Mr. Xi has vowed at some point to 鈥渞eunite鈥� with the mainland.聽But the more immediate concern is that China鈥檚 domestic difficulties could derail the first real聽glimmers of hope in many months for diplomatic reengagement.
Alongside a toughened economic and security stance toward China, the Biden administration has聽repeatedly stressed the need to keep the U.S.-China rivalry from breeding across-the-board聽hostility, preventing cooperation even on issues of common concern, and even leading to head-on conflict.
American officials have gone to great lengths to emphasize to Beijing that Washington鈥檚聽tightened trade rules 鈥� including an executive order signed last week by Mr. Biden banning U.S.聽investments in Chinese high-tech firms 鈥� are not aimed at affecting China鈥檚 economy more聽broadly, or impeding its growth.
That鈥檚 a point Mr. Biden also stressed during his appearance in Utah.聽And although Mr. Xi has long been signaling skepticism about such assurances 鈥� accusing the U.S.聽earlier this year of seeking the 鈥渁ll-out encirclement鈥� of China 鈥� there have been some recent聽indications he was becoming more receptive to improving the diplomatic atmosphere.
Mr. Xi and Mr. Biden met at last November鈥檚 G20 summit on the Indonesian island of Bali 鈥撀爐heir first face-to-face talks since Mr. Biden鈥檚 inauguration as president.聽Since then, a trio of American Cabinet secretaries, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken,聽have held talks with their Chinese counterparts.
And in what could prove a key test of Mr. Biden鈥檚 success in keeping open a U.S.-China聽dialogue even on issues of contention, like high-tech trade, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo聽is due to travel to Beijing later this month.聽Assuming her visit goes ahead without a hitch, the focus will then shift back to presidential聽diplomacy: Both Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi are due to attend this year鈥檚 G20 summit, scheduled for聽next month in India.
Yet with a number of Chinese government ministers due to travel to the U.S. after that summit,聽the main measure of any sustained improvement may well come in November 鈥� in an expected聽Biden-Xi meeting at an Asia-Pacific economic summit due to be held in San Francisco.
Still, as Mr. Biden鈥檚 forceful, if undiplomatic, remarks in Utah suggested, Washington and its聽allies may first have to convince a newly reluctant Chinese leader that renewed diplomatic聽engagement is, far from a reflection of weakness on either rival鈥檚 part, in the fundamental聽interests of both of them.
