US, China face test of whether 鈥榤anaged rivalry鈥� is possible
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Ned Temko Columnist
| London
If they were dating, it would be called ghosting. And all those unanswered calls, texts, and emails might be cause for a shrug of the shoulders, a wry smile, and an acceptance that it鈥檚 time to move on.
But Joe Biden and Xi Jinping lead the world鈥檚 two major rival powers and by far the two largest economies.
So China鈥檚 rebuff of recent U.S. efforts to arrange a phone call between the leaders聽is more than a dating mishap. And it comes at a critical juncture in defining how the world鈥檚 single most important geopolitical relationship will look in the years ahead.
Why We Wrote This
At a critical juncture in their relationship, the United States and China distrust each other and talk little. Their ability to take responsibility for shaping a path forward matters deeply to the world, our columnist writes.
With attitudes hardening on both sides 鈥� from trade and tariffs to the future of the island democracy of Taiwan, which China has pledged to 鈥渞eunify鈥� with the mainland聽鈥� the U.S. hope is not only to avoid a kind of diplomatic doom loop.
It is to find a way for both countries to agree on basic rules of the road 鈥� key among them, regular high-level communication 鈥� to keep their growing rivalry from leading to unnecessary, even unintended, conflict.
The longer-term hope, though it鈥檚 been looking increasingly elusive of late, is for America and China to find ways to cooperate on issues of worldwide concern: climate change, for instance, or debt relief for developing countries.
The good news is that Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi will talk, if not in the coming days, then surely before they鈥檙e next due to meet face-to-face at the G-20 summit in India this autumn.
Yet how soon that happens, and what they say to each other, could go a long way toward determining whether a more managed rivalry proves achievable.
Sharply divergent outlooks
Public signals from both sides have underscored the profoundly different ways in which the United States and China view the current tensions and the way forward.
In a last month, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen laid out Washington鈥檚 concerns about China鈥檚 retreat from free-market reforms at home and China鈥檚 鈥渃onfrontational posture鈥� toward America and its allies 鈥渋n the Indo-Pacific, [and] other regions.鈥� That, she said, explained Washington鈥檚 determination to press for fairer trade, as well as its recent moves to restrict the sale to China of high-tech components with potential military applications.
But she dismissed talk of a full-scale economic 鈥渄ecoupling.鈥� With U.S.-China trade totaling some $700 billion, that would be 鈥渄isastrous鈥� for both countries and 鈥渄estabilizing鈥� internationally. She added that U.S. policy was not aimed at preventing China from prospering: 鈥淎 growing China that plays by the rules鈥� would benefit China itself, America, and the world.
And she stressed the 鈥渆ssential鈥� importance of communication.
But from China, the message has been diametrically different.
鈥淓ncirclement and suppression鈥�
Mr. Xi told his rubber-stamp legislature in March that 鈥淲estern countries, led by the U.S., are implementing all-round containment, encirclement, and suppression against us.鈥�
In the weeks since, not only has he spurned suggestions of a phone call with Mr. Biden. He has welcomed a stream of European leaders 鈥� from Italy, Germany, France, and the European Union 鈥� for talks in Beijing. China clearly sees a twin benefit: cold-shouldering the Biden administration while reinforcing ties with America鈥檚 European allies.
There鈥檚 a measure of domestic political signaling on both sides of the standoff.
But that鈥檚 one reason the coming weeks could prove so important.
Mr. Xi, recently elected to a third term, has more power than any leader since Mao Zedong. He has built his ascent on a narrative of a 鈥淐hinese century鈥� in which his country will displace America鈥檚 post-World War II dominance in world affairs. The appearance of compromise and conciliation with Washington could risk seeming like a retreat.
Mr. Biden鈥檚 toughened policy toward Beijing has enjoyed something almost unheard of in today鈥檚 Washington: bipartisan backing. But as the 2024 election comes closer, efforts to find common ground with China could invite Republican accusations of weakness.
Adding to the sense of urgency is the delicate juncture of current relations.
Barely five months ago, the two leaders聽did meet, at last November鈥檚 G-20 summit in Bali. And both leaders committed themselves to an effort to improve relations, starting with a visit by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Beijing.
But hours before he was due to set off, the U.S. identified a Chinese surveillance balloon over the Midwest, postponing the trip and eventually shooting down the balloon. The lack of communication between the countries鈥� military was seen as a barrier to prospects of deescalating the incident before it got to that stage.
Since then, the Beijing visit 鈥� like the proposed call between Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi 鈥� has been on hold.
Mr. Blinken said this week efforts are continuing to reschedule it, and President Biden鈥檚 climate envoy, John Kerry, cited 鈥渘ear-term鈥� plans to resume the countries鈥� climate-change talks.
They, like Mr. Biden, see such steps as critical not only for U.S.-China ties, but also as a steadying factor in an increasingly unstable world. That was a point Ms. Yellen made by quoting President Biden鈥檚 view that both major powers 鈥渟hare a responsibility ... to prevent competition from becoming anything ever near conflict.鈥�
And that鈥檚 especially true, she made clear, because America and China aren鈥檛 just dating. With 鈥渄ecoupling鈥� not realistically on the agenda, they鈥檙e fated, in some sense, to remain partners.
In other words, if nothing else, they have to think of the kids.
