海角大神

This morning, 鈥渟eer of seers鈥� 聽saw his shadow after emerging from his burrow. According to tradition, the groundhog鈥檚 finding portends six more weeks of winter.

If you believe the , the same rodent has been accurately predicting the weather every Feb. 2 since 1887, kept young by a secret 鈥渆lixir of life.鈥�

Phil has always faced competition from other groundhogs, from North Carolina's Sir Walter Wally to West Virginia's French Creek Freddie. (Although few have as awe-inspiring of a title: Pennsylvania's rodent is formally known as the "Seer of Seers, Sage of Sages, Prognosticator of Prognosticators, and Weather Prophet Extraordinary.") Recent years have brought a fresh threat to his credibility: scientists questioning his reliability. But every Feb. 2, he still manages to draw national attention to a remote clearing in western Pennsylvania.

Thursday鈥檚 festivities at Gobbler鈥檚 Knob put an American twist on the early 海角大神 mid-winter festival of Candlemas Day, , a professor emeritus of biology at Pennsylvania State University:

In northern Europe, farmers needed some indication when to start spring planting. They looked for the emergence of hibernators, such as the hedgehog or badger, to signal the coming of spring. Since their emergence occurred in early February, it was believed that if Candlemas Day was sunny, and the hibernator saw its shadow, more wintry weather was ahead. But if it rained or snowed on Candlemas Day, the rest of the winter would be mild.

In the late 19th Century, German immigrants brought this belief to Pennsylvania. They substituted the Keystone State鈥檚 groundhogs for the badgers and hedgehogs of their homeland, and a new tradition was born.

The groundhog鈥檚 internal rhythms make it well-suited for an early-February forecast. Marmota monax hibernates from about November to March, but it doesn鈥檛 take one continuous nap. Instead, its energy spikes an average of fifteen times over the course of the winter, cycling in and out of a torpor, according to .

During one of these brief wake-ups, in early February, the groundhog scopes out prospective suitors, before mating in March. That romantic prelude聽lined up perfectly with farmers鈥� need for a weather forecast.

But even if Phil's schedule has biologists鈥� seal of approval,聽meteorologists are not impressed. A table on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website to the February-March temperature records of every year since 1988. 鈥淭he table shows no predictive skill for the groundhog,鈥� it concludes. Focusing just on Phil's predictions for February gives him a聽, as USA Today reported.

That so-so record invites competition. Another groundhog, Staten Island Chuck, has made reliable forecasts since the Staten Island Zoo began seeking his services in 1981聽鈥� or so his keepers say.聽

But those results . The groundhog used for the 2014 celebration died one week after being dropped by Mayor Bill de Blasio; 2009鈥檚 Chuck bit then-Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who cursed at the animal while pulling him out with a plunger in 2011.

Accurate or not, Phil remains on better terms with his handlers and admirers in Punxsutawney.

As a聽 on the Groundhog Club鈥檚 鈥淔rom the Burrow鈥� blog acknowledged, 鈥淚t is hard to explain the rationale for putting on an event like Groundhog Day let alone the year-long activities and work that support and promote the legend of Punxsutawney Phil.鈥�

But it isn't just fondness for Phil that makes the town keep up the tradition, the blog says, admitting "there is no personal benefit except for a brief moment of notoriety which is mostly local."

"So what gives?" the blog continues. "We put on a party in the middle of winter to give us all a respite from the tedium of winter and maybe a little break for the weight of what we see in the news."

"Most of all understand we are doing this for you and please have a great time," concludes the writer, signed "Phil's Shadow."