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Lives on hold, economy in check: Gaza war tests Israel鈥檚 stamina

Ori Barzilay was planning his wedding when Hamas launched its devastating Oct. 7 attack on Israel.

Like more than 300,000 other Israeli civilians, he immediately left his regular life and went off to war, in his case as a reservist in an elite intelligence unit.

After nearly three straight months in uniform, he only recently returned home, part of a wider demobilization 鈥� for now 鈥� of Israeli forces.

As the campaign against Hamas grinds on in Gaza, and the threat of a wider escalation with the Iran-backed Hezbollah grows in Lebanon, Israel is digging in for a long war 鈥� militarily, economically, and socially. It鈥檚 an effort both to achieve its ambitious objectives and to make the battle sustainable for its citizenry.

鈥淭he year 2024 will be challenging,鈥� Israel鈥檚 military chief, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, said Sunday. 鈥淲e will be fighting in Gaza all year, that鈥檚 for sure, and this will also hold [for] the other arenas.鈥�

Mr. Barzilay, a principal at Team8, a Tel Aviv-based tech investment firm, was told by his commanders not to get too comfortable back in civilian life.

鈥淲e were kind of released,鈥� he says, adding that it was made clear to him to be ready to meet the army鈥檚 needs for the entirety of the coming year.

鈥淭here will be peaks up and down. It鈥檚 not [a binary] 0 or 1; it鈥檚 a dynamic situation,鈥� he adds.

鈥淟ower-intensity鈥� phase

Now over three months into the war in Gaza, much of Israel has returned to a semblance of (wartime) normalcy.

Rocket barrages from the battered Palestinian enclave onto Israeli cities have nearly stopped, with more incoming alerts tallied in northern Israel in recent weeks due to intensifying Hezbollah fire. At the stroke of midnight on New Year鈥檚 Eve, revelers in Tel Aviv barely heard the last major Hamas volley 鈥� and those that did continued with the festivities until the small hours of the night.

On the ground inside the Gaza Strip, the Israeli military has shifted to a 鈥渓ower-intensity鈥� phase of its offensive, at least in the northern part of the territory, deploying less firepower and more targeted raids against Hamas targets. While heavy fighting has continued in Gaza鈥檚 center and south, the need for the same level of massed Israeli army divisions 鈥� and reservists 鈥� has decreased.

Yet Israeli military officers maintain that much work remains to be done: Half of Hamas鈥� 24 battalions are still functioning, the group鈥檚 leadership is still alive, and there are still more than 100 Israelis being held hostage inside Gaza.聽

In tandem, tensions are also growing with Hezbollah, with the powerful Shiite movement exchanging fire daily with Israeli forces.

Last week, a senior Hamas leader, Saleh al-Arouri, was killed in a suspected Israeli missile strike in Beirut. Hezbollah vowed to retaliate, and this past weekend fired on a critical Israeli military installation as part of what it termed an 鈥渋nitial response.鈥� On Monday Hezbollah said a senior commander, Wissam Hassan Tawil, had been killed in an Israeli airstrike.

More than 80,000 Israelis have been displaced from their homes on Israel鈥檚 northern border, heaping pressure on the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to find a solution to the Hezbollah threat 鈥� whether via ongoing United States-backed diplomatic efforts or through military force.

鈥淭he probability of [outright] conflict in the north is greater than 50%,鈥� said Gabi Ashkenazi, a former Israeli military chief and foreign minister, at a recent economics conference at Herzliya鈥檚 Reichman University. 鈥淪o we have to assume that we鈥檒l need to deploy force.鈥�

Facing such an array of uncertainties over an extended period of time, Israel now intends to make the situation more workable, especially on the home front.

鈥淭he reserve array will be built in such a way that they can go out to freshen up, the Israeli economy can function, [and] families waiting for their loved ones can get back to routine,鈥� Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the chief military spokesperson, said last week.聽鈥淭he fighting will be long, there are many challenges, and we must do this. ... We will still need the reservist forces鈥� in the future.

Yearning for normality

At the economics conference where Lieutenant General Ashkenazi spoke, university students milled about, their semester only just beginning in late December. Those young reservists who had already been released were recognizable for the assault rifles slung over their shoulders, alongside their backpacks.

Inside the lecture hall, finance officials and academics attending the conference put on by the Aaron Institute for Economic Policy were of one mind: The Israeli economy in the coming year was looking at slower growth (and likely a recession), with higher budget deficits due to the massive cost of the war, including increased defense spending to levels not seen in decades.

鈥淥ct. 7 was a transformative date for Israel. ... Our defense doctrine collapsed,鈥� said Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, a former military intelligence chief, on a recent call with journalists.

鈥淸Now] what is needed is a different defense doctrine, with different initiatives. The [prior] addiction to tranquility is gone,鈥� he said in remarks directed at Hamas, Hezbollah, and other external Israeli enemies. 鈥淭hose who don鈥檛 understand that will feel the fire.鈥�

Yet tranquility and normality and routine are exactly what Israelis, and especially those on the home front, yearn for 鈥� even in wartime. The toll on reservists, and their families, has been immense.

Ben, a reserve officer in a combat brigade headquarters who asked that his full name not be used, was mobilized and deployed last month to the Gaza front. Unlike others in his unit, he tries to make it back home every night, even if just for a few hours, to see his 1-year-old son and wife.

鈥淚t鈥檚 been very difficult on her; she鈥檚 exhausted,鈥� Ben says. 鈥淭here are a lot of babysitters and family help ... and we have it easier than most.鈥� His wife was recently told she鈥檚 being laid off, an economic blow that other reservists, especially those who are self-employed, are well acquainted with.

Yet despite it all, Ben adds, 鈥渘o one is eager to end this before we finish the job鈥� against Hamas. 鈥淭ime is working in our favor. Every day we鈥檙e there [inside Gaza], we鈥檙e dismantling them.鈥�

The certainty of uncertainty

This shared sense of mission, even months into one of Israel鈥檚 longest wars, is still evident 鈥� despite the high cost and, oftentimes, dissonance of the current moment.

After returning home, the 29-year-old Mr. Barzilay found the 鈥渞outine鈥� of go-go Tel Aviv, with its bars and cafes full again, 鈥渧ery odd and strange鈥� after the reality of military life and the scenes of devastation in Gaza.

鈥淏ut later I realized it鈥檚 a wonderful thing to see, and also important for the economy, which is no less an important front in this war. This is why I do reserve duty, to protect it all,鈥� he says.

As for his upcoming wedding, those plans are still on hold: The uncertainty of the current moment is the only certainty.

His fianc茅e, a medical student, was also called up for reserve duty. Unlike him, she has yet to be demobilized.

鈥淲e were looking at this coming spring, and we still want to do it then. But it鈥檚 an open question whether it鈥檒l be possible,鈥� he says.聽鈥淚t鈥檚 the first time our generation has experienced a war of this magnitude.鈥�