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Tense calm on eve of anniversary of disputed Iran election

One year after the disputed Iran election that returned President Ahmadinejad to office, many say the revolution and the regime have lost legitimacy. Green Movement opposition leaders, who called off a rally, are facing growing criticism of their tactics.

Battle lines remain drawn as Iran marks the one-year anniversary on Saturday of a disputed presidential election that sparked weeks of bloody protests that Revolutionary Guard commanders say brought the Islamic regime to the 鈥渆dge of a downfall.鈥�

There may be clashes on June 12, if protesters defy warnings to stay at home. Or there may be tense calm: Denied permits, opposition leaders on Thursday called off demonstrations due to the 鈥渄ark history of the past year鈥� of violence, and to 鈥減reserve people鈥檚 lives and property.鈥�

Either way, say many Iranians and analysts, Iran in the past year has irreparably changed, the legitimacy of the regime undermined by an election widely seen as fraudulent and by violence against fellow Iranians.

鈥淥ppression is severe, but at the same time [the opposition] know the Islamic Republic is going toward its end, because they can see it running out of breath,鈥� says Massoumeh Torfeh, an Iran specialist at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) at the University of London.

鈥淭hey are sitting there and waiting,鈥� says Ms. Torfeh. 鈥淭hey realize they have had the most powerful and brutal regime attacking them. But at the same time 鈥� they are thinking. These are young, educated, futuristic, computer-savvy people [and] this is giving them time to think and to regroup.鈥�

Vote was 'divine assessment'

One year ago, Iran鈥檚 supreme religious leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei immediately declared the reelection of arch-conservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a 鈥渄ivine assessment.鈥�

Enraged at the officially declared 2-to-1 landslide victory against the more moderate candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, a former prime minister who surged in the polls in the week prior to the vote, the opposition Green Movement cried foul and took to the streets by the hundreds of thousands.

In weeks of clashes with security forces, scores were killed 鈥� some reports suggest hundreds 鈥� and more than 4,000 were arrested. Ayatollah Khamenei would rule that rejection of the election results was the 鈥渂iggest crime,鈥� and allegations of rape and killings in secret detention centers and televised show trials further soured the aftermath of the vote.

Last fall, the opposition infiltrated and turned 鈥済reen鈥� several key religious and national regime events, which peaked with the violent scenes in late December to mark the death of a 7^th century martyr.

February protests fizzled

Another attempt at street protests in February, however, on the anniversary of the revolution itself, fizzled under the weight of blanket police and militia deployments.

鈥淭he Greens have learned that street protests cannot lead anywhere since the government would provoke violent confrontation, and there is a lack of street leaders to guide the protests,鈥� says an Iranian journalist in Tehran who could not be named for security reasons.

Iran鈥檚 myriad security forces and ideological basiji militia are expected to saturate Tehran and other cities to prevent any further mass protests, the kind that last year went increasingly beyond calls for a new election, and turned against Iran鈥檚 highest authority, Khamenei, whose image was desecrated repeatedly by protesters calling 鈥淒eath to the Leader!鈥�

Iranians by Thursday were already watching groups of basijis on motorcycles driving along Tehran鈥檚 central Vali Asr Avenue.

鈥淣obody could have scarred the image of Khamenei more than he did to himself over the past year,鈥� says a young Iranian professional who was arrested during the crackdown. He did time in Evin prison, and left Iran a few days ago for good.

鈥淓ven when the reformist supporters don鈥檛 come out, but you see a whole bunch of police out there, you see a lot of precautions 鈥� it still has an effect,鈥� says the professional. 鈥淲hen people don鈥檛 come out, and their lack of [being there] is still provoking that same reaction ... I think that鈥檚 a huge message.鈥�

Also sending a message were opposition leaders Mr. Mousavi and fellow presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi, who in a joint statement on Thursday called off their plans for a silent rally. The two men have been fighting increasing criticism from opposition activists who expect more direct leadership as well as the risk of irrelevance, due to their limited ability to speak to followers. Another problem for some regime opponents is their stated adherence to upholding the rule of the Supreme Leader and to making reforms inside that system.

They canceled the rally, the joint statement read, after receiving information of the 鈥渞eorganization of hard-liners and their henchmen to attack defenseless masses.鈥� The result was a request to 鈥減rotesters to pursue their rights and seek their demands through less costly means.鈥�

Mousavi and Mr. Karroubi sought to reassure the opposition: 鈥淭he movement is alive and the real pride belongs to those who are still continuing their rightful protest despite all threats, dangers, insecurities, and knowing well the 鈥� consequences.鈥�

鈥淭his is the worst year for Ayatollah Khamenei in the whole history of the Islamic Republic, because he faces serious challenges at home, and now he faces these UN sanctions,鈥� says analyst Torfeh. 鈥淗e鈥檚 been pretending the situation has gone back to normal, but he knows this normalcy is only because they have been pressuring people, and putting people behind bars, and killing them point blank.鈥�

Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endownment in Washington, wrote in a recent analysis that, 鈥淔or two decades, Khamenei deceptively cultivated an image of an impartial and magnanimous guide, but his defiant public support for Ahmadinejad exposed him as a petty, partisan autocrat. Among the unprecedented slogans of last summer鈥檚 street protests were thunderous chants of 鈥楰hamenei is a murderer, his leadership is void!鈥� 鈥�

While senior Iranian officials and officers have downplayed the dangers anymore from the Green Movement 鈥� even declaring victory last February over the 鈥渓eaders of the 鈥渟edition鈥� 鈥� they can鈥檛 stop talking about these former luminaries of the revolution who they believe have strayed from its path.

And some observers argue that the word 鈥渧ictory鈥� might be premature, regardless of what happens on the June 12 anniversary.

鈥淚t鈥檚 just building up. It鈥檚 not going away,鈥� says the once-imprisoned professional, referring to the hidden popular strength of the opposition. For the regime, 鈥渋t鈥檚 a Catch-22, a vicious circle for which they have no way out. If they do loosen up, they are going to be walked over, and [now] that鈥檚 without a doubt.鈥�

He reckons that only his first interrogator in Evin prison 鈥� who would often repeat the simplest questions in that first nine-hour session 鈥� truly believed that he was engaged in trying to foment a 鈥渧elvet revolution鈥� to overthrow the government. It was a common charge.

鈥淚 was brought up in the revolution,鈥� the professional says. 鈥淎s a fact, I know that soldiers never win. Even if on one day they force people back, they haven鈥檛 actually won.

鈥淭hey start losing when they鈥檝e gone home the second night, and third night, and look at the bigger picture,鈥� he adds. 鈥淭hey see their own family, their family sees them, and that鈥檚 when they start losing. That鈥檚 the erosion that will [matter] when the [next] fight breaks out.鈥�

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