海角大神

Iran celebrates the start of the Persian New Year 鈥� or Norouz 鈥� this weekend, a time of joyful spring renewal that will also be used by Iran鈥檚 supreme religious leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei to take stock of the damage done to the Islamic regime by post-election Iran protests and a determined opposition movement.

The Green Movement has been forced off the streets by police and security forces, and senior hard-line officials have declared 鈥渧ictory.鈥�

But does Iran鈥檚 most powerful man 鈥� whose official title is God鈥檚 Deputy on Earth, infallible to his ardent followers 鈥� think he is winning?

Ayatollah Khamenei keeps a very tight circle, so divining the machinations of his mind can be akin to Soviet-era Kremlinology. But after watching him for decades, several close observers believe that he knows he has lost much legitimacy.

鈥淗e鈥檚 in triumphant mood right now,鈥� says an Iranian political scientist, who asked not to be further identified. 鈥淏ut deep down, he knows he鈥檚 lost the war of legitimacy and popularity.鈥�

Ayatollah Khamenei 鈥渇eels he鈥檚 got the upper hand at the moment,鈥� says the Iranian academic. 鈥淏ut at the same time, deep inside 鈥� this is my belief 鈥� he does not have a very good sleep at night. He鈥檚 very angry 鈥� that鈥檚 what I can see in his face. The slogans they leveled against him, the image he鈥檚 got 鈥� he鈥檚 lost a lot of the popularity he had.鈥�

The result is likely to be hard pushback against any further unrest, but Khamenei must strike a balance over ordering too much force. And while the opposition is temporarily sidelined, its leaders are vowing to press on.

Khamenei's calculus: Keep 30 percent of people on board

In the June 2009 election, Khamenei had declared President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad鈥檚 official 2-to-1 margin of victory over former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi a 鈥渄ivine assessment.鈥�

But a host of irregularities caused the opposition to cry fraud, and hundreds of thousands of Iranians protested.

Scores died as hard-line regime enforcers shot, clubbed, whipped, and arrested people to reestablish control during one of the most severe crises in Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Accounts of death, rape, and torture in custody further degraded Iran鈥檚 reputation.

For the first time, the supreme leader became a target on the streets: Protesters burned and trampled posters of him, shouting 鈥淒eath to the Dictator鈥� and 鈥淒eath to the Leader.鈥�

The reaction was an even more forceful response.

鈥淭he regime has got a lot more aggressive, and it鈥檚 going to be more aggressive in coming months,鈥� says Mehdi Khalaji, a seminary-trained Iran specialist at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) who is working on a biography of the supreme leader.

鈥淸Khamenei] thinks, 鈥業f I can have even 20-30 percent of the people with me, and have systematic pressure on the other 70 percent, I can lead for a long time and there wouldn鈥檛 be a serious threat against me,鈥欌�� says Mr. Khalaji, whose father, an ayatollah in the Iranian religious center of Qom, was arrested without charge and held in solitary confinement in Evin Prison for three weeks in January.

鈥淸Khamenei] tries to keep as many people [as he can] inside the circle of the elite, [while] empowering the suppression machinery of the regime more than before,鈥� adds Khalaji.

Supreme leader's difficult balance

Analysts say keeping sufficient core supporters on board while using force against perceived 鈥渆nemies鈥� is a balance that will be difficult to maintain. A number of official rallies were hijacked by opposition activists, which embarrassed the regime, but by the 31st anniversary of the revolution on Feb. 11, security forces and intelligence operatives had the measure of many opposition tactics.

The regime鈥檚 countertactics worked, say opposition activists in Tehran, who were surprised by the setback. Many had raised their expectations to fever pitch, expecting that the regime would crumble on that day. Their subsequent disappointment at being unable to even prove their numeric strength led to 鈥渄epression鈥� 鈥� and delight in official circles.

鈥淚t鈥檚 almost like one voice coming out of the establishment, state-run television, all their hard-line newspapers, saying that 鈥榳e managed to crush them,鈥欌�� says a veteran political analyst in Tehran who could not be named.

鈥淎t the same time, worries are clear to see,鈥� the analyst says. 鈥淭hey are not in a state of panic [as] in the past, but are still on very high alert. They feel that enemies are organizing, and reformers are just pawns.鈥�

Mousavi: Coming year one of 'patience and endurance'

Mr. Mousavi has kept fighting back, and this week declared that the coming year would be one of "patience and endurance."

"My feeling for the future is that this movement is irreversible," Mousavi said in a speech on Monday, according to a of a Persian website in the Los Angeles Times. "We will never go back to the position we were in one year ago. I鈥檓 very hopeful of the future. We have to transfer patience and hope to people."

Mousavi said the opposition 鈥渁imed at reviving a compassionate Islam and the Constitution," which guarantees freedom of speech, protest, and no ideological compulsion. 鈥淧rison is no longer effective against the Green Movement.鈥�

Now behind the wheel, hard-liners lambast 'tolerant' Islam

Yet while the opposition have made a substantial impact, there has been an overall shift to the right in Iranian politics, with Mr. Ahmadinejad鈥檚 neoconservative politicians, the supreme leader鈥檚 office, and top Revolutionary Guard officers joined in a loose troika that have conducted a systematic purge of key ministries and security organs.

The Tehran analyst recalls the 1997-2004 presidency of the reform-minded Mohammad Khatami, and how debates about the tolerant nature of Islam did not automatically lead to attack.

鈥淣ow [hard-line] newspapers like Kayhan write, 鈥楾his guy, you can鈥檛 believe it! He believes in Islam based on tolerance!鈥� As if it鈥檚 a curse, like [he鈥檚] a communist,鈥� says the analyst. 鈥淭hat voice comes from a small group, but they are behind the wheel now.... This is a big shift of the common ground that [once] existed ... inside the establishment.鈥�

Image of division damaging for Khamenei

Leading (or following) that shift has been the supreme leader, who analysts agree stepped away from his traditional role after 20 years in the job as political balancer. Until last summer, consensus within Iran鈥檚 opaque Islamic system was often the goal.

Divisions have been part of the Islamic Republic from the start, but their nature after the vote has challenged Khamenei鈥檚 view of what the Islamic Republic should be.

鈥淲hat hurts him is that some people can reveal this division,鈥� says Khalaji at WINEP. 鈥淭he division itself is not important. He thinks, 鈥業 can manage it, I can deal with opposition, I can intimidate them, I can prevent them from coming to the streets.鈥�

鈥淲hat is damaging to him is media, is pictures 鈥� the image of opposition is damaging for him,鈥� adds Khalaji. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 why he鈥檚 so tough on media, on intellectuals, artists, writers, professors at university 鈥� nobody should talk about it. Talking about this means questioning the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic.鈥�

'This doesn't smell of victory'

Yet another way of questioning that legitimacy, by the right-wing itself, has been the denigration of some of the titans of Iran鈥檚 revolutionary generation.

The three top opposition leaders have all been branded 鈥渉eads of sedition鈥� and traitors, but they all played key roles in the past: Mousavi was a respected prime minister during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s; Mr. Khatami a two-time president with unprecedented popular mandates; and Mehdi Karroubi a two-time former parliament speaker and presidential candidate.

鈥淪topping the visible protests in the streets, that鈥檚 a win [for Khamenei], of course,鈥� says the veteran Tehran analyst. 鈥淏ut blaming and losing all the people who have been part of the establishment, who have worked hard, sacrificed and done a lot ... pushing them away.... So all of them are bad now? All those around the Leader 鈥� 30 years of struggle, 50 years of struggle 鈥� have gone bad?

鈥淭his doesn鈥檛 introduce any taste or smell of victory.鈥�