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Starmer is out, but is Britain done with its prime minister churn?

For British voters, the announcement that came Monday morning will have been sinkingly familiar: They will soon have a new prime minister. Again.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned less than two years after taking the post, meaning his successor will be the seventh in 10 years. That successor will almost certainly be Andy Burnham, whose sweeping victory in a by-election last week for a seat in Parliament proved to be the writing on the wall for Mr. Starmer.

Is Mr. Burhnam more likely to get the United Kingdom off its prime ministerial merry-go-round than any of his recent predecessors? The answer, experts say, will significantly depend on how he approaches a different question: Will he be honest with the British people?

In one way or another, all of the occupants of No. 10 Downing St. going back a decade have failed to compellingly convey the enormity of the challenge facing the British state and the necessity of some sacrifice for any hope of success. The economy is stagnant, having never fully recovered from the Great Recession, much less the pandemic or Brexit. Public services, including the much-beloved National Health Service (NHS), are faltering or failing. Bond markets warn of dire consequences if Britain goes on a borrowing spree. And a decline in public trust means the electorate is more fragmented than at any time in the nation鈥檚 modern history.

But successive governments have met these mounting challenges with聽either hard-hearted austerity (from the Conservatives) or bland bromides for change (from Labour). What is needed, experts say, is courage.

鈥淧oliticians have been running scared from the public, scared to say anything unpopular,鈥� says Tom Caygill, a political scientist at Nottingham Trent University. 鈥淧oliticians need to give the public much more credit. It is a really difficult moment, but until politicians start being honest with the public, things will keep going as they are.鈥�

Desire for change not forthcoming

Mr. Starmer was undone by the severity of these difficulties. But he was also undone by聽both his lack of a clear plan to address them and his inability to communicate effectively with British voters. His Labour government, given a landslide majority in the 2024 general election, did have accomplishments. It passed significant worker-rights reforms and made some progress on NHS wait times. Despite being pilloried on immigration by the far-right Reform UK party, it has also brought numbers down by almost half since 2024.

But these moves were occluded by missteps. Most notably, Peter Mandelson was confirmed as ambassador to the United States, despite his links to the late financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Mr. Starmer鈥檚 poor skills at managing Parliament and his own party were likewise exposed. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 really important in the way our political system operates,鈥� says Dr. Caygill.

In short, the members of his own party were eager to be rid of him, and Mr. Burnham鈥檚 emphatic win in the race for a seat from Makersfield last week set the gears of change in motion. Labour will begin voting for its new leader 鈥� who will also become prime minister 鈥� on July 9. The man seen as Mr. Burnham鈥檚 staunchest opposition, former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, has said he supports Mr. Burnham and will not run for the post.

But if Labour is going through seismic changes, the underlying political situation is not. In focus groups and polls, the message from British voters is clear: They feel disrespected. Over and over again, from Brexit to general elections, they have voted in hopes of changing Britain鈥檚 trajectory. But nothing has changed.

Pollster Peter Kellner says that today鈥檚 politicians need to acquire some of the spirit of Winston Churchill, who stood before Parliament at the onset of the Battle of Britain in World War II and promised not impossible solutions but 鈥渂lood, toil, tears, and sweat.鈥�

鈥淭he search for solutions is stuck,鈥� Mr. Kellner says. 鈥淒on鈥檛 make promises you can鈥檛 keep. [Churchill] couldn鈥檛 pretend that things were other than dire.鈥�

Treating the public with respect

But that has not been the mode of recent leaders. 鈥淲e鈥檝e had a lot of weather-vane politics,鈥� says Thom Oliver, a political scientist at the University of the West of England in Bristol.

This is partly a result of sweeping changes in the electorate. Dominated for generations by the Conservatives and Labour, British politics lately have fractured, with frustrated voters fleeing to Reform UK on the right and the Greens on the left. This new, more complicated environment left Mr. Starmer unsure who his opposition was, with Labour losing working-class voters to Reform and liberals to the Greens.

The result was an agenda that was 鈥渋ncoherent,鈥� says Colm Murphy, a political scientist at Queen Mary University of London.

The economy made things harder, he says, with a lack of growth forcing Mr. Starmer into unpopular zero-sum decisions such as raising taxes or cutting spending. But Mr. Starmer boxed himself in from the beginning by vowing such choices could be avoided by economic growth (which never came).

鈥淭reating someone with respect means treating them like an adult鈥� and delivering hard news, says Dr. Murphy.

As the successful former mayor of Greater Manchester, Mr. Burnham offers some hope of improvement on Mr. Starmer鈥檚 powers of communication and political management. But his plan is, for now, a mystery. He has long argued for more devolution of power from Parliament and the political establishment at Westminster to localities. But will he borrow to fund public sector spending and subsidies, risking the ire of the bond markets? Will he acknowledge the need for more taxation, which many experts see as necessary?

If he is to learn from Mr. Starmer鈥檚 mistakes, experts say, he would do well to be open and honest with voters about what it will take to get the change they want.

Says Dr. Oliver of the University of the West of England, 鈥淭he next prime minister will inherit the same fiscal limits, the same public impatience, the same pressure from insurgent parties, and the same central problem: Voters wanted change, but many have not yet felt it.鈥�