A Manchester constituency votes today. The future of the UK might be at stake.
| Hindley, England
Struggling in the polls and facing political rebellion after disastrous local elections, time appears to be running out for Keir Starmer鈥檚 tenure as British prime minister.
But the next battle to lead Britain isn鈥檛 being fought in Westminster in London, but in a small cluster of towns in England鈥檚 Northwest.
It鈥檚 from here in the constituency of Makerfield that Andy Burnham, the charismatic mayor of Greater Manchester, hopes to get back to Parliament. If Mr. Burnham succeeds, it will open the door for him to mount a leadership challenge against Mr. Starmer 鈥� and potentially replace him as prime minister.
Why We Wrote This
A series of dominoes might be starting to fall that could lead to Andy Burnham becoming the next prime minister of the United Kingdom. But first, he has to win Thursday鈥檚 by-election in the constituency of Makerfield. That鈥檚 not guaranteed.
But before any of that could happen, Mr. Burnham must win Thursday鈥檚 by-election in Makerfield, home to roughly 75,000 voters. And that means wooing many who are eschewing the center-left Labour Party 鈥� the party of Mr. Starmer and Mr. Burnham 鈥� in favor of the populist far right.
And as the U.K.鈥檚 political landscape continues to fracture away from its traditional two-party system, Mr. Burnham鈥檚 victory in Makerfield is far from guaranteed.
The King of the North
Mr. Burnham became the mayor of Greater Manchester in 2017, quickly gaining popularity with flagship initiatives to battle homelessness and to bring public transport under local government control.
On the streets of Hindley, a town of just under 30,000 people in the Makerfield constituency clustered around several now-disused coal mines, many people know Mr. Burnham personally or have worked with him in the past. The signature bright yellow buses of Mr. Burnham鈥檚 public transit network rumble down the high street.
Christine Burrows, a retired youth worker, says that she鈥檒l be voting for Mr. Burnham to replace the area鈥檚 former representative, Josh Simons, who relinquished his office so that Mr. Burnham could run in his place. Ms. Burrows says that she previously approached Mr. Burnham for help with a local issue, and found him 鈥渧ery down to earth, very nice.鈥�
Another resident, Jean Black, says that Mr. Burnham had once helped others at a nearby church. 鈥淚 feel Andy Burnham is a person you could trust.鈥�
Mr. Burnham鈥檚 work in Manchester built him a national profile, particularly during the pandemic, when his passionate defense of the city and its need for greater government funding earned him the moniker 鈥渢he King of the North.鈥�
But perhaps more important, Mr. Burnham is charismatic in a way that Mr. Starmer isn鈥檛.
Mr. Burnham cultivates an approachable, everyman image, appearing as the kind of person with whom his constituents could socialize, says Alex Nurse, a senior academic in urban governance and planning at the University of Liverpool.
It鈥檚 not clear whether this popularity will translate onto a national stage with greater demands, especially as Mr. Burnham鈥檚 wider political vision has remained vague while on the campaign trail. But with Labour facing both chronic unpopularity and a dearth of recognizable public figures, many hope that Mr. Burnham could provide the figurehead that the party desperately needs.
The reason why Mr. Burnham has succeeded in Manchester, Dr. Nurse says, 鈥渋s because he has a message, and he can sell it. I think where he might be good is going on television and saying, 鈥榃e鈥檝e done this, and this is my vision.鈥欌��
In many polls, Mr. Burnham outperforms both Mr. Starmer and the Labour Party as a whole, Dr. Nurse adds. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a vote for him and his personal popularity as mayor. And my sense is if it was anyone but him, I don鈥檛 think Labour would win that election.鈥�
Reform on the rise
Yet, if Mr. Burnham wishes to mount a bid for prime minister, he must first win over Makerfield鈥檚 residents on Thursday.
Northern, post-industrial areas such as Makerfield were viewed for years as safe and unassailable Labour seats. That has changed more recently, with the right-wing Reform UK party overtaking the country鈥檚 traditional center-right Conservative Party and winning large numbers of seats in May鈥檚 local elections. Wigan Council, which oversees the Makerfield area, had 25 seats up for contention during the local vote. Reform UK took 24 of them.
Rob Kenyon, a plumber and local councilor, is running as Reform UK鈥檚 candidate in Thursday鈥檚 by-election. While Mr. Kenyon has spoken on local issues such as traffic and illegal dumping, it is the party鈥檚 stance on immigration that has attracted voters.
Resident Josh Westby, who works in housing maintenance, says he鈥檒l be voting for Reform and cites immigration as a major concern. 鈥淭here鈥檚 low-paid jobs being taken, and there鈥檚 a lot of people who would take them in a heartbeat,鈥� he says. He describes Reform UK as 鈥減utting the country first.鈥�
The proportion of foreign-born residents is low in places such as Hindley compared with elsewhere in the U.K. 鈥� just 4%, according to 2021 census data, in contrast to 17% across the country as a whole. Nonetheless, many locals regard immigration as a strain on local services, which have seen their government funding slashed over the past decade.
Lynne Tindall, a retired cook, declined to say who she would vote for on Thursday, but echoed sentiments shared by many in Hindley. 鈥淎ll these people coming in from other countries, it鈥檚 time for it to stop, because it鈥檚 not fair. We can鈥檛 get appointments at the hospital, we can鈥檛 see a doctor, we can鈥檛 do anything,鈥� she says.
Fracturing politics
So far, Britain鈥檚 increasingly fractured political landscape has benefited Reform UK, as people have felt increasingly confident turning away from the country鈥檚 two major parties 鈥� Labour and the Conservatives.
鈥淚n the old days, when class was everything, people didn鈥檛 actually think about how they were going to vote so much. It was class allegiance or it was party allegiance. The number of floating voters was very small,鈥� says Eric Shaw, a senior lecturer in politics at the University of Stirling in Scotland. 鈥淣owadays, loyalty to class and party in a traditional sense has really shrunk dramatically.鈥�
But in Makerfield, it also poses an electoral danger. Also on the ballot will be Restore Britain, a party founded by former Reform UK politician Rupert Lowe. Its policies include abolishing the country鈥檚 asylum system and deporting foreign nationals legally in the U.K. if they 鈥渁ctively hate鈥� Britain鈥檚 鈥渨ay of life.鈥�
Experts says that though left-wing voters are expected to rally around Mr. Burnham, those on the right could be split between Reform UK and Restore Britain. It also remains uncertain whether recent anti-migrant riots in Northern Ireland will push voters away from right-wing parties or cement their cause.
Dr. Shaw stresses that emotion plays an outsize role at the election box. 鈥淲e鈥檙e living in a world where many voters are swayed by factors other than the rational consideration of policy,鈥� he says.
He also believes that Restore Britain voters could end up playing a pivotal role in the final results. 鈥淚t鈥檚 quite possible that the combined Restore-Reform vote will be the same as whatever [Mr. Burnham] can mobilize,鈥� he says. 鈥淚f they鈥檙e divided, [he] should be able to get it 鈥� but not with a very large majority.鈥�
