海角大神

Behind France鈥檚 confidence vote, a nation at political loggerheads

This week, France鈥檚 far-right National Rally president, Jordan Bardella, told reporters, 鈥渢he miracle did not happen.鈥�

He was referring to speculation about a meeting to resolve a crisis that has blown up over the government鈥檚 controversial budget plan. Mr. Bardella would have sat on one side of the table, alongside the National Rally鈥檚 foremost politician, Marine Le Pen. On the other would have been Prime Minister Fran莽ois Bayrou.

But the fierce rivals never even made it to the table. The impasse reflects a growing reality amid France鈥檚 ongoing political turmoil, with the government鈥檚 future at stake: There are no easy solutions.

Over the summer, Mr. Bayrou presented an ambitious plan to reduce France鈥檚 ballooning debt, aimed at slashing 44 billion euros (about $51 billion) in spending. But his bill, which would cut two public holidays and freeze social welfare and social security spending, has proved deeply unpopular with his political opponents and French people alike.

After months of deadlock in the French Parliament 鈥� which is split almost evenly between a left-wing alliance, the National Rally, and a center-right partnership 鈥� Mr. Bayrou has called for a confidence vote on Sept. 8. According to an Elabe poll for news outlet BFMTV, 7 out of 10 French people hope Mr. Bayrou will lose. Observers say they are likely to get their wish.

鈥淲e鈥檝e never had such a hung Parliament in the Fifth Republic and our constitution is not made to allow parties to legislate together,鈥� says C茅lia Belin, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Paris. Plus, 鈥淏ayrou has never been a good negotiator, and he鈥檚 annoyed a lot of people by being rigid. It鈥檚 a collective fail.鈥�

A risky vote

Mr. Bayrou鈥檚 confidence vote is not just 鈥減olitical suicide,鈥� as former President Nicolas Sarkozy described it to journalists. It also threatens the stability of the nation. France could see its fifth prime minister since President Emmanuel Macron won his second term in 2022.

Mr. Bayrou had hoped that, by calling the vote, he could end the monthslong standoff in Parliament over his budget and fend off potential street protests. But he appears to be leading France even deeper into murky waters.

Early predictions suggest that Monday鈥檚 vote will result in another hung Parliament, leaving the French government no better off than it is now. Mr. Macron also faces a lack of clear choices for his next prime minister and is in danger of losing credibility among the public and France鈥檚 political class.

鈥淢acron has lost all the popularity he held in 2017,鈥� when he was first elected president, says Hall Gardner, professor emeritus of political science at the American University of Paris. 鈥淏ayrou was Macron鈥檚 fourth prime minister in 2024, revealing Macron鈥檚 inability to govern with a working majority and 鈥榣ead the way.鈥欌��

Mr. Macron鈥檚 predecessor, Fran莽ois Hollande, went so far as to blame Mr. Macron for allowing the situation to deteriorate so badly, telling television channel France 5 that he did not understand 鈥渉ow Emmanuel Macron could let Fran莽ois Bayrou make such a decision鈥� to put his government on the line with the confidence vote.

Still, even as calls by the far right for the president to resign have gotten louder, Mr. Macron is unlikely to leave the scene anytime soon, say observers. He is known for being headstrong and has played a dominant role on the European and world stages. His departure would do little to solve France鈥檚 financial and social woes.

鈥淭he least likely scenario is that Macron will resign. That鈥檚 not his style,鈥� says Dr. Belin. 鈥淲e鈥檙e in this moment of instability with Donald Trump and two wars [in Ukraine and Gaza]. We need stability.鈥� Even voters who do not support Mr. Macron 鈥渟ay they鈥檇 rather wait it out for a proper election,鈥� he adds.

Snap election unlikely

If Mr. Bayrou is voted out of office, France鈥檚 next prime minister will inherit a government in turmoil. He or she will also have to deal with a growing list of social grievances.

France鈥檚 budget deficit stands at 5.8% of gross domestic product 鈥� the third-highest in Europe 鈥� and there is a widespread feeling among voters that public services are in decline. Public hospitals suffer from a dearth of doctors and nurses, and rural train lines are closing.

The far right largely blames immigration for the country鈥檚 ills, and Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Bardella have used the current political confusion to lure potential voters to the National Rally camp.

鈥淥nly dissolution will now allow the French people to choose their destiny, that of recovery with the National Rally,鈥� Ms. Le Pen posted on social media, less than an hour after Mr. Bayrou鈥檚 confidence vote was announced.

Ms. Le Pen is banned from running for political office for five years, after she was found guilty last March of embezzling European Union funds. But her party has said that they are exploring all legal avenues to challenge the constitutionality of her election ban. In the meantime, Mr. Bardella, the party鈥檚 young, charismatic president, is holding the fort.

The National Rally is pushing for another snap parliamentary election 鈥� 86% of National Rally voters are in favor of such a vote 鈥� in hopes that they would benefit, as they did after Mr. Macron鈥檚 surprise decision to hold legislative elections in June 2024. Those elections gave the National Rally a record 142 seats in the National Assembly.

However, the snap elections also resulted in a hung Parliament 鈥� and France鈥檚 current political turbulence 鈥� and Mr. Macron is unlikely to risk it again.

With the confidence vote due Monday, political observers are speculating that the left-wing coalition could meet Mr. Macron鈥檚 centrists and his right-wing allies to hash out a last-minute deal. The question is whether such negotiations could succeed without input from the National Rally, to whom few political parties are willing to give any ground.

Or Mr. Bayrou could surprise everyone with an unexpected twist.

鈥淏ayrou is a real political survivor. Contrary to expectations, he just might make it and not lose his mandate,鈥� says Mr. Gardner. 鈥淭here is really no one to take his place. Apr猫s moi, le d茅luge!鈥�