Macron finally picked a prime minister. But can he govern France?
| Paris
Faced with uncertainty over the future of his government, French President Emmanuel Macron has tapped a new prime minister renowned for his experience finding consensus and working across political and ideological divides.
But both men face a long road ahead to find political success and acceptance by French society.
Last Thursday, Mr. Macron named Michel Barnier, a conservative lawmaker and former European Union negotiator for Brexit, as his prime minister, sixty days after calling snap legislative elections that have left the country in political gridlock. Mr. Barnier will look to form his new government in the coming days, ahead of an Oct. 1 deadline to reach a major budget deal that can fend off EU warnings about France鈥檚 spiraling public deficit.
Why We Wrote This
The end of the Olympics also closed out the feel-good limbo that had frozen French politics. Now President Emmanuel Macron and his newly chosen prime minister will have to figure out how to govern a France that looks on the verge of ungovernability.
But he is faced with the daunting task of leading a country on the edge of political crisis.
On Saturday, thousands of people took to the streets across the country in protest of Mr. Macron鈥檚 choice of Mr. Barnier, who is a member of the conservative R茅publicains party. Protesters said his selection doesn鈥檛 respect the results of July elections that put the left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front, ahead of both Marine Le Pen鈥檚 far-right National Rally and Mr. Macron鈥檚 Renaissance bloc. The far-left La France Insoumise, the most extreme member of the NFP coalition, has called for Mr. Macron鈥檚 ouster in what they say was a 鈥渟tolen election.鈥�
With France on the brink of being ungovernable, all eyes will be looking to its new prime minister to seek the same sort of compromise and cooperation that he did when negotiating a Brexit deal with the United Kingdom.
鈥淢r. Barnier is going to have to perform an incredibly difficult balancing act and I鈥檓 not sure he is the person to do it, or if the right person even exists, given the current state of parliament,鈥� says Douglas Webber, professor emeritus of political science at the INSEAD business school.聽鈥淔rance has found itself in an unprecedented situation where no political party has a majority. And there is no handbook for how we move forward.鈥�
Backed into picking Barnier?
The atmosphere at protests in France this weekend couldn鈥檛 have been more different than it was in the country just two months ago. The NFP鈥檚 surprise win at the legislative elections on July 7 brought celebrations in the streets and a renewed sense of enthusiasm for the future of France.
鈥淚 was so stressed about what was going to happen,鈥� says Marine de Royer, a Paris resident who protested over the weekend. 鈥淚 remember the absolute relief I felt when we learned that [far-right leader] Jordan Bardella wasn鈥檛 going to be prime minister.... But now it feels like the far right has still won.鈥�
There were hopes among the left that Mr. Macron would choose Lucie Castets, a Socialist, as his prime minister, after her name was put forth by the NFP at the end of July. But Mr. Macron is under no constitutional obligation to name a leader from the winning coalition at the legislative elections.
Many observers say he was backed against a wall 鈥� particularly by the far-right. The National Rally, along with lawmakers from right and center-right parties, were expected to use a vote of no confidence to block Ms. Castets, as well as other rumored candidates like Bernard Cazeneuve and Xavier Bertrand.
While the NFP could still vote against Mr. Barnier, their weight alone would not be enough to push him out. Meanwhile the far right, which holds the second highest number of seats in parliament, has said they won鈥檛 block Mr. Barnier.
That, alongside his list of credentials, made Mr. Barnier an ideal choice for Mr. Macron. He has served as a minister under Presidents Jacques Chirac, Fran莽ois Mitterrand, and Nicolas Sarkozy 鈥� two conservative, one socialist. Mr Barnier鈥檚 pro-European stance could please the left, while his support for stricter immigration controls will help him with conservatives. In 2016, he headed the EU鈥檚 Brexit task force.
鈥淏arnier is a good choice in that he has a proven track record of mediating between conflicting groups,鈥� says Hall Gardner, professor emeritus of political science at the American University of Paris. 鈥淭he left is saying [to Macron], 鈥榥ow you鈥檝e betrayed us鈥� and they see someone from the center right who doesn鈥檛 support their issues. But I think Barnier will make an effort. ... He has a broader vision than just France. He sees the bigger picture.鈥�
鈥淐an Barnier govern?鈥�
While the choice of Mr. Barnier may make sense on paper, it鈥檚 of little comfort to French voters, many of whom feel they went to the ballot box this summer for nothing.
鈥淢acron should have chosen someone from the left. We feel betrayed. Why did we vote?鈥� says C茅cile Drouet, who protested in Paris on Saturday. 鈥淐an Barnier govern? I don鈥檛 think so. He lacks the ability to bring the French together and restore confidence in politics.鈥�
Mr. Barnier鈥檚 first major challenge will be forming a government that doesn鈥檛 immediately collapse. While the NFP won the July elections, they fell short of an absolute majority, leaving France with a hung parliament. Alongside his newly appointed finance minister, Mr. Barnier will have to tackle the budget, which will involve drafting a bill by Oct. 1. Economists advising the government say France needs to cut its public deficit by over 鈧�100 billion ($110 billion) in the next seven to 12 years in order to avoid a debt spiral similar to Italy.
France鈥檚 new prime minister also has to convince the French people that he has what it takes to unite the country, not divide. Many on the French left worry that the country鈥檚 prized social security system is at risk, while others want the retirement age brought down from 64.
While it鈥檚 still early days, Mr. Barnier seems to be willing to offer an olive branch to his detractors. On Saturday, he made his first official visit to a public hospital in Paris, to discuss the pressures on healthcare workers and a lack of resources. There, he said that politics existed not to perform miracles, but to promote progress.
鈥淔rance is in a state of extreme fragility and the level of divides we鈥檙e seeing is a real threat to democracy,鈥� says Roger Sue, a professor emeritus of sociology at Universit茅 Paris Cit茅. 鈥淎s soon as Mr. Barnier forms his government, he鈥檚 going to have to answer a lot of questions.鈥�
