海角大神

As Armenia seeks peace with old foes abroad, civil unrest grows at home

As Armenia鈥檚 embattled prime minister prepares to seal what many of his fellow citizens regard as a humiliating peace deal with long-time rival Azerbaijan, the country is seeing outbreaks of discord. And at the heart of the unrest is the ancient Armenian Apostolic Church, which has become a catalyst for the public鈥檚 protests against the government.

The unrest is heavily rooted in the southern Caucasus mountain republic鈥檚 disastrous military defeat at the hands of neighboring Azerbaijan in 2020. Now, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is trying to cut a deal with the Azeri government and its patron, Turkey, in order to break Armenia out of its de facto Russocentric isolation in the Caucasus and open it up to trade with the European Union.

But the Armenian Church has pushed back, complaining about Mr. Pashinyan鈥檚 plans to hand over several Armenian border villages to hated rival Azerbaijan. That, along with alleged calls from church officials for a revolution, has led to the arrest of government critics and demonstrations against Mr. Pashinyan.

鈥淭he Armenian Apostolic Church is one of the only institutions that is respected across a broad spectrum of Armenian society, including many who have become disillusioned with political parties,鈥� says Atom Mkhitaryan, co-chair of the Armenian Association of Political Scientists. 鈥淚t鈥檚 seen as a source of legitimate criticism. The authorities鈥� attack on the church and criminal prosecution of its leaders has had a wide, and negative, social resonance. It could become a trigger for consolidating the opposition and increasing street pressure.鈥�

Ultimately, the struggle between the government and the leaders of the Armenian Church establishment are likely to determine the little country鈥檚 future direction, and whether it faces West or continues to face East.

Church versus state

Tensions in Armenia have been building for weeks. Late last month, crowds of believers battled police at Etchmiadzin, the ancient seat of the Armenian Church, when police tried to arrest leading clerics who have . Mr. Pashinyan has accused Garegin II, the head of the church, of corruption and moral laxity, and claimed that the clergy currently 鈥渙ccupying鈥� Etchmiadzin constitute a 鈥�,鈥� which must be removed.

And on July 4, in the usually calm, famously pink-hued downtown of Armenia鈥檚 capital of Yerevan. Thousands marched to demand the release of Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian-Armenian energy tycoon after he defended leaders of the Armenian Apostolic Church, some of whom the government has arrested.

Sofi, a middle-aged restaurant manager who declined to give her family name, says she joined the July 4 demonstration spontaneously. She says she doesn鈥檛 have any particular sympathy for Mr. Karapetyan, but 鈥淧ashinyan has been a terrible disappointment. He attacks the church, which is the soul of Armenian identity. He cozies up to our worst enemies, the Turks and the Azeris, and seems ready to surrender our nation to them.鈥�

Seven years ago, Sofi was among the tens of thousands who marched in the peaceful, pro-democracy revolution that brought Mr. Pashinyan to power. Back then, she says, she was full of hope that decades of war, corruption, isolation, and national malaise could be ended.

鈥淚鈥檝e seen several changes of power in my life, and each time it captures our passions, we believe that good changes will come,鈥� she says. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 feel that way anymore. But this government has to go. Pashinyan is destroying Armenia.鈥�

Mr. Pashinyan鈥檚 plan

Mr. Pashinyan didn鈥檛 just preside over Armenia鈥檚 unexpected military defeat in 2023, in which surging Azerbaijani forces took back all the territories that had been seized by Armenia in a post-Soviet war over 30 years ago. More painfully, he was also in charge when Azerbaijan subsequently overran the ancestral Armenian territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, forcing the enclave鈥檚 100,000 Armenian inhabitants to flee.

In each case, Armenia鈥檚 chief military ally, Russia, cited the illegality under international law of Armenia鈥檚 occupation of former Azeri territory as a reason not to intervene on Armenia鈥檚 behalf.

That leaves Armenia in a difficult position. Landlocked Armenia, sandwiched between hostile Azerbaijan and Turkey, has only been able to access the outside world, for more than 30 years, through its border with neighboring Georgia and a narrow border with Iran.

Its biggest trading partner by far is Russia, which accounted for 42% of Armenia鈥檚 trade in 2023, while trade with the EU was just 7.3%. Russia provides the vast bulk of Armenia鈥檚 oil and gas imports, as well as fuel for its only nuclear power station. Armenia remains a member of the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union, which it would have to leave if it wanted to join the EU.

With Moscow not showing up at a time of critical need, Mr. Pashinyan appears to be trying to break Armenia free of its old dependency and isolation, analysts say, and perhaps forge a new future where connections with the European Union would gradually replace Armenia鈥檚 former total reliance on Russia.

But that means attempting to make peace with Azerbaijan and its sponsor, Armenia鈥檚 age-old enemy Turkey. Last month Mr. Pashinyan visited Turkey, and discussed normalizing relations with its president, Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an, in what has been .

Making peace is also deeply unpopular in Armenia, where memories of the 1915 Turkish genocide that virtually eliminated the Armenian population of Anatolia remain painful.

Grigory Shvedov, editor of the , an online journal that runs a string of grassroots reporters throughout the Caucasus region, says Mr. Pashinyan is making a bold gamble.

鈥淪ince Armenia can鈥檛 expect support from Russia, it makes sense to find a peace formula with the old enemies. Improved relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan might be the way out,鈥� he says.

鈥淲ho knows what might happen if there is an opening with Turkey and Azerbaijan. So far, borders remain closed. If things change, a window to Turkey is opened, it might break this apparent dead end for Armenia,鈥� Mr. Shvedov adds.

A rocky road ahead

The Russian media has extensively covered Mr. Pashinyan鈥檚 crackdown on the church in a tone that led the Armenian government in Yerevan over what it called 鈥渉ostile propaganda.鈥�

Russia鈥檚 3 million-strong Armenian diaspora, whose remittances are an important factor in Armenia鈥檚 economy, strongly supporting the church and calling on Armenians to unite against its 鈥減ersecution.鈥�

Parliamentary elections are about a year away, and many observers see the mounting unrest, the arrests, and the church-led resistance as the opening act in what is going to be a long and tumultuous campaign.聽

A Gallup poll conducted in early July . Mr. Pashinyan鈥檚 core support has fallen to barely 13% 鈥� from a high of 80% when he was first elected 鈥� and fewer than 15% of respondents indicated that they would back his Civil Contract party. But there is no opposition party that yet offers a credible alternative.聽

This week jailed tycoon Mr. Karapetyan announced that he with an as-yet undisclosed program and no links with existing opposition parties, to ensure 鈥渁 good future for Armenia.鈥�

鈥淚t looks like change is on the way,鈥� says Mr. Shvedov. 鈥淏ut it might take a long time to be realized.鈥�