海角大神

China鈥檚 five-year plans date back to Mao. A new one has the world鈥檚 attention.

Communist Party leaders are meeting in Beijing聽this week to map out China鈥檚 economic strategy for the next five years 鈥� doubling down on ambitious plans to dominate high-tech industries and raise the country鈥檚 geopolitical heft.

Despite escalating trade friction with the United States and other countries, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has signaled that his top economic priority is boosting China鈥檚 manufacturing prowess with across-the-board technological innovation 鈥� reflecting confidence that Beijing鈥檚 current course is a winning one.

While details of the country鈥檚 new five-year plan, covering 2026 to 2030, will be released in coming weeks and months, the main pillars of its industrial policy are clear: increase China鈥檚 self-reliance in advanced technologies, while expanding overseas markets to fuel export-driven growth.

Indeed, experts say that China鈥檚 status as the world鈥檚 second-largest economy is attracting growing attention to the once obscure, state-led plans, the first of which was launched under Mao Zedong in 1953.

鈥淚f we have learned something from the past decade, it should be to take these plans seriously,鈥� says Katja Drinhausen聽from the聽Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), a Berlin-based think tank. 鈥淭he strategic push of the next five-year plan is something that 鈥� one way or another 鈥� pretty much all countries around the world will feel."

Withstanding pressure聽

Mr. Xi鈥檚 determination to stay the course on his聽economic policy has been strengthened by how China has so far weathered the trade-war turbulence unleashed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Tariffs and other trade barriers imposed on China in recent months by the United States and European Union have had a limited impact on the country鈥檚 overall exports.

鈥淐hinese companies have been able to manage the tariff burden,鈥� says Andrew Batson, chief analyst of the Chinese economy at the independent research firm聽Gavekal聽Dragonomics. 鈥淐hina has been very effective in the trade diplomacy with the U.S. and averting much worse outcomes."

Moreover, the Chinese government is likely 鈥渜uite skeptical鈥� of Washington鈥檚 willingness to maintain extremely high tariffs on China, such as the 100% levy on U.S. imports from China that Mr. Trump recently threatened, Mr. Batson says.

Trade restrictions by the U.S. and the European Union do 鈥渘ot seem to be blowing them off course at all,鈥� agrees Jonathan Czin, a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution in Washington.聽

China鈥檚 economy is on track to meet the government target of a roughly 5% increase in gross domestic product this year, having achieved 5.3% GDP growth in the first six months. Robust increases in exports 鈥� up 8.3% year-over-year in September alone 鈥� along with strong industrial production, have driven that growth, government data shows.

Mr. Xi casts China鈥檚 industrial policy as a source of economic stability in an increasingly uncertain world. China must 鈥渦se the certainty of high-quality development to cope with the uncertainty arising from the rapidly changing external environment,鈥� Mr. Xi urged at a meeting of the Communist Party鈥檚 ruling Politburo in April.

Beijing鈥檚 confidence about withstanding protectionist pressures is reflected in the effusive tone of official media reports. This month, a commentary in the party-controlled People鈥檚 Daily declared that 鈥渢he giant ship of China is an unstoppable, unbreakable 鈥榚conomic aircraft carrier,鈥� undeterred by wind and rain and forging ahead.鈥澛�

Road to development

China鈥檚 success in recent years in gaining dominance over cutting-edge industries 鈥撀爁rom electric vehicles and batteries to solar panels 鈥� has reinforced its pursuit of technological innovation to boost productivity.聽

鈥淭hey see themselves on the precipice of 鈥� a technological revolution鈥� that will put them at the center of the world stage, says Alexander Davey, an analyst at MERICS who focuses on China鈥檚 policymaking.聽

Still, the industrial policy has not been without its shortcomings, requiring course corrections.聽

State support 鈥� such as subsidies and tax breaks 鈥� has helped nurture young, innovative industries. But it has also led to a proliferation of Chinese companies competing to make similar products, as well as overproduction, price wars, and an erosion of profits.聽

The government is likely to address this problem in the new five-year plan by encouraging consolidation in industries such as electric vehicles, while also calling for regions to specialize in order to avoid the wasteful duplication of resources. In Beijing鈥檚 view, cities should 鈥渟top acting like little kingdoms and being protectionist,鈥� says Mr. Davey.

Another pressing issue is to what extent Beijing will balance its industrial policy with support for other stated priorities, such as increasing domestic demand and consumption. Despite much lip service to the goal of improving people鈥檚 livelihoods, policies to increase social benefits 鈥� such as pensions and other welfare 鈥� have been lacking.聽

Consumption in China is lagging given a lack of confidence in the economy among households 鈥� largely a result of ongoing stagnation in the housing market 鈥� as well as private businesses. 鈥淧rivate sector confidence聽has still not substantially recovered from its聽rock-bottom聽standing,鈥� says Mr. Davey.聽

China analysts will also be watching to see whether the new, 15th聽five-year plan contains specific GDP targets, which were omitted from the previous plan. Such guidance could help ensure that China reaches Mr. Xi鈥檚 long-term goal of becoming a 鈥渕oderately developed country鈥� by 2035, which economists estimate would require average growth of about 4.5% a year.