What China鈥檚 landmark climate pledge means for the fight against global warming
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Ann Scott Tyson Staff writer
| Beijing
China is now the dominant force both causing and restraining global warming. Over the past decade, China has been responsible for 90% of the growth in the carbon dioxide emissions that are raising world temperatures, . Yet China is also at the forefront of the world鈥檚 green energy transition, and is filling a leadership void left by the United States as Washington has withdrawn from international climate agreements.
For this reason, all eyes were on Beijing鈥檚 new climate pledge unveiled at the United Nations last month.
On one hand, the pledge marks a step forward. For the first time, China has set an absolute target for cutting emissions, rather than limiting future growth. In another first, its pledge covers all greenhouse gas emissions and economic sectors.
Why We Wrote This
China鈥檚 new climate pledge marks a modest step forward for one of the most populous countries in the world. It also reveals how the bar for climate leadership is dropping lower.
Nevertheless, experts say China鈥檚 commitment falls far short of the robust targets needed to fulfill the Paris Agreement imperative to limit the rise in global temperatures to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius.
What are China鈥檚 new goals?
In a video address to the United Nations climate summit in New York on Sept. 24, Chinese leader Xi Jinping said his country would cut greenhouse gas emissions across its economy by 7% to 10% from the peak level by 2035. China鈥檚 reduction should be closer to 30%, experts say, to be on track to meet Paris Agreement goals.
鈥淭he level of ambition 鈥� is quite low,鈥� considering China鈥檚 responsibilities under the Paris accord, and is 鈥渆specially low, compared to what they can deliver, given the astonishing clean energy boom happening in the country,鈥� says Lauri Myllyvirta, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute's China Climate Hub.
Moreover, by linking the cuts to an as yet undefined 鈥減eak鈥� rather than a specific year, Beijing 鈥渞isks creating an incentive for emissions increases鈥� by localities and firms that seek to lock in fossil fuel capacity at a higher base, says Mr. Myllyvirta.
Mr. Xi also pledged that, by 2035, China will boost the share of nonfossil fuels in total domestic energy consumption to more than 30%, and will increase the installed capacity of wind and solar power to 3.6 billion kilowatts, or more than six times the 2020 amount. Both targets are conservative, experts say.
Asia Society Policy Institute's China Climate Hub
Can China meet these targets?
China鈥檚 track record tells us it has the ability and willingness to meet these goals. In fact, it has the capacity to make even bolder emissions cuts, but leaders are proceeding with caution.
鈥淭he pledge is a bit modest,鈥� says Yanzhong Huang, a professor at Seton Hall University鈥檚 School of Diplomacy and International Relations. 鈥淭hey seem to frame it as a floor rather than as a ceiling. 鈥� They certainly don鈥檛 want to overpromise.鈥�
China鈥檚 rapid progress in expanding solar, wind, and other renewable sources of energy in recent years is the most important indicator that the country could cut emissions at a faster pace. For instance, China in 2020 vowed to more than double its renewable energy capacity to 1,200 gigawatts by 2030, but ended up reaching the goal more than five years early.
鈥淲ind and solar installation hit record highs,鈥� Dr. Huang says. 鈥淚n green technology, they have evolved from copycat to innovator. They are essentially dominating 80% of global solar cells. The progress has indeed been remarkable.鈥�
Given these modest goals, can China lead the climate effort?
In the past, U.S.-China competition has been a significant motivator for Beijing鈥檚 climate commitments. Today, the lack of U.S. pressure makes it easier for China to set a low bar on targets, while still sounding the rallying cry to reduce emissions.
At the U.N., Mr. Xi made an oblique reference to Washington鈥檚 withdrawal from the Paris accord, saying 鈥渟ome individual countries are moving against the tide.鈥� In contrast, he called on assembled leaders to 鈥渟trengthen our resolve,鈥� calling the green transition 鈥渢he trend of our times.鈥�
When it comes to addressing climate change, 鈥淭he U.S. is doing a lot more than abdicating. It鈥檚 ceding leadership to China,鈥� says Gary Yohe, a professor of economics and environmental studies at Wesleyan University.
Yet whether China can truly emerge as a leader in combating global warming remains to be seen, experts say.
Overall, domestic priorities such as Mr. Xi鈥檚 focus on energy security appear to be driving Beijing鈥檚 climate pledge decisions.
To hedge its bets, China has built up renewable energy while also scaling up the coal industry and producing more oil and gas 鈥� giving the country more energy than it needs.
To experts, Beijing鈥檚 climate pledge suggests that, so far, the leadership has not decided to strongly prioritize renewables or fossil fuels. But as the green energy expansion continues, that could change, putting China on track for 鈥渁 much larger emission reduction by 2035,鈥� says Mr. Myllyvirta.
