海角大神

Shunned by China, elected by Taiwan: What will Lai face in office?

Unswayed by China鈥檚 warnings about war, Taiwan鈥檚 voters on Saturday again awarded the presidency to the political party 鈥� shunned by Beijing 鈥� that considers the self-governing island of 23 million people to be de facto independent.

By giving the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) an unprecedented third consecutive presidential win with the election of Lai Ching-te, voters signaled confidence that Dr. Lai can navigate Taiwan鈥檚 delicate relationship with China and maintain the peaceful, if uneasy, status quo.

鈥淭aiwan has achieved a victory for the community of democracies,鈥� Dr. Lai said in a speech on Saturday night, flanked by his running mate for vice president, former U.S. envoy Hsiao Bi-khim. 鈥淭he Taiwanese people have successfully resisted efforts from external forces to influence this election.鈥�

Dr. Lai, a former doctor who is currently serving as Taiwan鈥檚 vice president, won 40% of the vote. China鈥檚 preferred candidate, Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT) or Nationalist Party, came in second with 33.5%, and last was Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People鈥檚 Party (TPP) with 26.5%.

The election marks a setback for China鈥檚 campaign to pressure Taiwan鈥檚 voters 鈥� through military maneuvers, misinformation, and economic coercion 鈥� to choose a president who endorses the concept of 鈥渙ne China,鈥� as does the KMT. China claims Taiwan as its territory and says unification is inevitable, by force if necessary.

Experts say China is likely to react with punitive measures to underscore its displeasure with both the DPP, which it has called 鈥渄espicable,鈥� and Dr. Lai, a veteran DPP politician whom Beijing has labeled a separatist and traitor.

Beijing will 鈥渄o something to indicate their hard line against the DPP in a Lai administration,鈥� says Kharis Templeman, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, where he serves as program manager of the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think there will be a honeymoon period for Lai.鈥�

But while the election could well lead to ongoing frictions between China, Taiwan, and Taipei鈥檚 strongest ally 鈥� the United States 鈥� the message sent by Taiwan鈥檚 voters could also have more nuanced impacts, as Beijing, Taipei, and Washington each adjust to the outcome.

鈥淏eijing has learned from past mistakes鈥� in its efforts to influence Taiwan, says Dr. Templeman, who was in Taipei observing the elections.

Dr. Lai鈥檚 agenda

For Dr. Lai and the DPP, the election win was tempered by the party鈥檚 loss of the majority in Taiwan鈥檚 Legislative Yuan, or parliament. No party now holds an absolute majority in the 113-member body. The DPP won 51 seats, a loss of 10 from the last election in 2020.聽The KMT won 52 seats and the TPP eight, both gains.

In terms of raw votes, Dr. Lai also received less than incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen, who won in a landslide in 2020.

鈥淲e did not work hard enough,鈥� Dr. Lai acknowledged in his speech. He pledged to incorporate policies of his opponents and draw talent from different political parties into his administration.

The upshot is that Dr. Lai is likely to stay the course established by President Tsai, but will be limited in making bold new initiatives, experts say. 鈥淗e ran on a promise to continue Tsai Ing-wen鈥檚 policies, domestically and internationally, so he has a fairly strong mandate to not do anything radically new,鈥� says Nathan Batto, research fellow at the Election Study Center, National Chengchi University in Taiwan.

A key issue is how Dr. Lai will stabilize Taiwan-China relations. On Saturday, he pledged to pursue exchanges, dialogue, and cooperation with China 鈥渦nder the principles of dignity and parity.鈥澛�

China鈥檚 subdued reaction

For its part, Beijing will be watching closely what Dr. Lai says in his inauguration speech in May.

So far, China鈥檚 reaction to the election has been relatively muted. Its official statements suggest that Beijing may take some consolation from the DPP鈥檚 mixed performance.聽

鈥淭he results of the two elections in Taiwan this time show that the Democratic Progressive Party cannot represent the mainstream public opinion on the island,鈥� said Chen Binhua, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, China鈥檚 Cabinet, in a statement released Saturday.

On Sunday, China鈥檚 Foreign Minister Wang Yi called the pursuit of Taiwan independence a 鈥渄ead-end鈥� road and said that 鈥淐hina will eventually achieve complete reunification.鈥�

Indeed, China seemed to moderate its pressure tactics during Taiwan鈥檚 election, experts say. 鈥淐hina ... didn鈥檛 shoot missiles at Taiwan鈥� or warn voters 鈥渋n a scary way,鈥� says Dr. Batto. 鈥淪o maybe they鈥檒l take away the lesson that high pressure is counterproductive and low pressure actually works better.鈥�

Less is more?

In part, Taiwan鈥檚 public has gotten used to China鈥檚 coercion, reducing its impact, says Chong Ja Ian, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore. As a result, Beijing鈥檚 approach 鈥渉as been more calibrated,鈥� says Dr. Chong.

Zheng Yongnian, director of the Institute for International Affairs at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, suggested that Beijing should avoid economic sanctions and step up softer tactics such as using social media to 鈥渃hange the identity of young people in Taiwan,鈥� as in the blog Sinification.

Indeed, Beijing seeks to 鈥渟ow polarization in Taiwan [and] sow doubt the U.S. would come to Taiwan鈥檚 aid,鈥� says Bonnie Glaser, managing director at the Indo-Pacific Program German Marshall Fund of the United States. 鈥淭hey want to instill ... despair ... so people will ultimately conclude that the only bright future for them is one in which they become part of China.鈥�

China, like the U.S., wants to avoid conflict over Taiwan. But Beijing wants to deter Dr. Lai from any action that could threaten its claim to sovereignty over the island, explains Ms. Glaser, co-author of 鈥淯.S.-Taiwan Relations: Will China鈥檚 Challenge Lead to a Crisis?鈥�

Washington鈥檚 reaction to the election was also tempered, with President Joe Biden underscoring that the U.S. does 鈥渘ot support independence鈥� for Taiwan.

Following Chinese leader Xi Jinping鈥檚 meeting with Mr. Biden in San Francisco in November, both sides want to preserve 鈥渁 fragile stability鈥� between the two superpowers, says Ms. Glaser. 鈥淚f the Chinese make very dangerous moves on Taiwan, that stability is likely to unravel.鈥�