Taiwan: Two presidents, two trips, two paths to handling China
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Ann Scott Tyson Staff writer
Visits last week by Taiwan鈥檚 president, Tsai Ing-wen, to the United States and by former President Ma Ying-jeou to China highlight a sharp contrast between political visions for safeguarding the democratic island鈥檚 future as Taiwan鈥檚 2024 election approaches.
President Tsai and her ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) favor preserving or expanding the autonomy of Taiwan鈥檚 23 million people, in part by drawing closer to the U.S., Japan, and other democratic partners.
In two U.S. stopovers while in transit to and from an official visit to South America, President Tsai helped solidify Taipei鈥檚 security and economic cooperation with Washington in unofficial sessions with lawmakers and with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onEven as an emerging unique identity has emboldened Taiwanese to stand up for their freedoms, preserving the status quo with China is seen as the best way to uphold their vibrant democracy. Which Taiwanese party can deliver that?
鈥淲e look forward to building ever stronger Taiwan-U.S. ties to defend our shared values of freedom and democracy,鈥� Ms. Tsai tweeted upon returning to Taiwan Saturday.
Mr. Ma, meanwhile, a senior member of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party, struck a far more Beijing-friendly tone on his private historic visit to mainland China that ended Friday. Making the first visit to the mainland by any incumbent or former Taiwanese president, Mr. Ma reiterated the official KMT position that there is only 鈥渙ne China,鈥� calling for more exchanges to ease tensions across the Taiwan Strait.
How these divergent DPP and KMT narratives resonate with Taiwan鈥檚 public is an important factor in Taiwan鈥檚 upcoming presidential election, scheduled for January 2024. With China鈥檚 aggressive military maneuvers raising the risks of conflict with Taiwan, experts say the election promises to provide a gauge of the political will of Taiwan鈥檚 population at a critical moment.
The growing emergence in Taiwan of a unique Taiwanese identity has emboldened the population to stand up for its freedoms, while also reflecting a pragmatic belief that preserving the status quo is the best way to uphold the island鈥檚 vibrant democracy.
鈥淭he vast majority of people are saying they prefer the status quo, likely because they just don鈥檛 want to go to war,鈥� says Bonnie Glaser,听managing director of the German Marshall Fund鈥檚 Indo-Pacific program. 鈥淭hey see this has been safe. They don鈥檛 want to rock the boat.鈥�
China is keen to sway the electorate in the direction of the KMT, which has traditionally been more pro-Beijing. The KMT chalked up key victories in local elections last November, although some recent polls have put the DPP in the lead in the upcoming presidential race.
Military pressure
China鈥檚 increasing pressure tactics 鈥� it launched fresh military exercises and dispatched dozens of aircraft around the island Sunday in response to President Tsai鈥檚 U.S. visit 鈥� are aimed in part at intimidating Taiwan鈥檚 population into supporting the KMT鈥檚 more accommodating stance, experts say.
鈥淐hina gets the sense that it can influence the election a little bit if it makes Taiwan鈥檚 life more miserable 鈥� as a result of Tsai鈥檚 policies of cozying up to the United States,鈥� says Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at RAND and adjunct professor of international relations at the University of Southern California. 鈥淏ut if you鈥檙e Beijing, you can鈥檛 push it too far.鈥�
Indeed, amid growing preoccupation on all sides with military preparations for a possible war on Taiwan, the decisive factor in determining the island鈥檚 future remains the will of Taiwan鈥檚 people, says Ms. Glaser, co-author of the upcoming book 鈥淯.S.-Taiwan Relations: Will China鈥檚 Challenge Lead to a Crisis.鈥�
鈥淚n many respects,鈥� write Ms. Glaser and her co-authors, 鈥渢he will of Taiwan鈥檚 people to resist Beijing鈥檚 pressure and preserve their political autonomy and democratic way of life is the center of gravity.鈥�
The People鈥檚 Republic of China (PRC) has claimed Taiwan as part of its territory since it took power in 1949. That year, Mao Zedong鈥檚 Communist revolutionaries prevailed in China鈥檚 civil war against Chiang Kai-shek鈥檚 Nationalist forces, who fled to Taiwan and relocated the government of the Republic of China 鈥� the official name for Taiwan. But China鈥檚 Communist-led government has never ruled Taiwan.
In recent decades, as Taiwan democratized, public opinion has shifted steadily away from the goal of unification with China and toward the embrace of a Taiwanese identity, polls show.
Since the 1990s, surveys show a surge in the percentage of Taiwan鈥檚 people who identify as Taiwanese 鈥� from 20% in 1992 to 60% in 2022. Meanwhile, those identifying only as Chinese dropped from 10% to 2.7%.
Today, Taiwan鈥檚 people overwhelmingly support maintaining the current status of the self-ruled island, with more than 90% favoring the status quo compared with only 1% who want Taiwan to unite with the mainland as soon as possible, according to a March poll by Taiwan鈥檚 Mainland Affairs Council.
Responding to China鈥檚 policies
This 鈥渋ncredible shift in views on Taiwan toward China鈥� is partly a reaction to Beijing鈥檚 hard-line policies, says Ms. Glaser. 鈥淭he obvious authoritarian turn in China has been very unpopular and unwelcome in Taiwan,鈥� she says. Taiwan 鈥渋s a very free place, so what鈥檚 happened in China has been seen as creating a system that Taiwanese people don鈥檛 want to live under.鈥�
As China鈥檚 appeals for unification have lost traction with Taiwan鈥檚 people, Beijing has adopted more hard-line pressure tactics toward the island, especially since Ms. Tsai was first elected president in 2016. It has cut tourism, restricted trade, and stepped up propaganda slamming the DPP as favoring independence.
Yet Beijing鈥檚 repressive policies 鈥� and especially its heavy-handed crackdown on Hong Kong鈥檚 2019 pro-democracy protests 鈥� helped solidify attitudes on Taiwan and hand Ms. Tsai and the DPP a landslide victory in the 2020 presidential race.
Indeed, research shows that as China鈥檚 coercion has mounted, resistance has grown among Taiwan鈥檚 people, who increasingly see China as hostile and threatening and so look for support from the U.S. and other advanced democracies.
鈥淎s PRC pressure grows 鈥� support for working with China diminishes鈥� among Taiwan survey respondents, says Chong Ja Ian, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.
This trend continued even when China launched a massive military exercise and fired missiles over the island in August 2022 in response to a visit to Taiwan by then U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Dr. Chong says. 鈥淧eople are 鈥� getting used to this intimidation by the PRC,鈥� he says. 鈥淭his coercive diplomacy toward Taiwan has a diminishing effect,鈥� which could eventually lead China鈥檚 leaders 鈥渢o rethink their strategy,鈥� he says.
Indeed, Beijing has also used more subtle tactics, waging effective influence operations to boost support for KMT candidates and spread disinformation aimed at creating division and shaking the confidence of Taiwan鈥檚 people in their future.
China 鈥渉as more traction when they try to create more confusion within Taiwan 鈥� more divisiveness in Taiwan鈥檚 politics,鈥� says Dr. Chong.
War and peace
Like former President Ma, KMT politicians are presenting their party as the best equipped to ease tensions with China, while accusing the DPP of leading Taiwan toward war. 鈥淭he KMT will bring you peace 鈥� we have a dialogue with China. 鈥� We will manage the relationship better,鈥� is the message they spread, says Dr. Chong.
This KMT narrative was a factor leading Ms. Tsai鈥檚 administration to persuade Speaker McCarthy to meet her in the U.S. rather than travel to Taiwan, as he鈥檇 pledged to do earlier. Mr. McCarthy was the most senior elected U.S. official to meet a Taiwanese president in the U.S.
Taiwan鈥檚 current vice president, William Lai聽Ching-te, stepped forward last month to compete in the DPP presidential primary, as Ms. Tsai is barred by term limits from running again.聽Polls show Mr. Lai鈥檚 popularity increasing among voters, with a March poll finding that nearly 40% of voters prefer him over likely KMT candidates.
Meanwhile, as Taiwan鈥檚 presidential election approaches and DPP and KMT politicians jockey for position, Beijing could adopt a lower profile.
鈥淎s we look to January 2024, Beijing is no doubt considering how its actions might sway public views toward the DPP,鈥� writes Margaret Lewis, a law professor and Taiwan expert at Seton Hall University School of Law, in an email response to questions. 鈥淭his could counsel in favor of a lighter touch.鈥�
