海角大神

North and South Korea: Path to six-party talks rocky, but still open

Without six-party talks, there will be no opportunity to dissuade North Korea from testing another nuclear device. The US is trying to keep the conversation open.

The path away from recent violence and toward negotiations on the volatile Korean peninsula is proving rocky and uncertain, but it is still open.

The first tentative steps at reconciliation since North Korean artillery shells killed four South Koreans last November have, so far, gone nowhere. This month's highly anticipated talks between military officers, designed to pave the way for a high level military meeting, ended after two days, when Pyongyang鈥檚 delegation walked out.

The stakes are high. Without talks, inter-Korean relations will remain on ice, there will be no opportunity to dissuade Pyongyang from testing another nuclear device, and US diplomats say they see no point in resuming broader international negotiations to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program.

Thus, 鈥渢he US is trying to work with China to aid North Korea and to keep the conversation open, so eventually President Lee Myun-bak鈥檚 government will follow this path because it has no other choice,鈥� says Park Jie-won, leader of the opposition Democratic Party鈥檚 forces in the National Assembly.

The impediment to progress? A standoff between North and South Korea over Seoul鈥檚 insistence that in any negotiations Pyongyang must acknowledge and apologize for sinking a South Korean naval vessel last March and for shelling the island of Yeonpyeong in November.

At last week鈥檚 preliminary talks, North Korea continued to deny sinking the Cheonan and killing 46 crew members, despite the finding of an international panel that a North Korean torpedo was responsible. Pyongyang has issued only regrets for the loss of civilian life on Yeonpyeong.

鈥淣orth Korea did not show the level of sincerity that we had expected鈥� at the meeting, says Kim Kiwoong, director general of the policy office at Seoul鈥檚 Ministry of Unification, which manages relations with North Korea.

鈥淣orth Korea must be sincere about no more provocation,鈥� Mr. Kim adds. 鈥淲e must have talks based on such foundations if they are to have any outcome.鈥�

Behind the scenes, say Korean officials, the United States has been urging Seoul to accept North Korea鈥檚 offer to restart talks after a series of military maneuvers that signaled South Korea鈥檚 readiness for an armed response to any further attack.

A little nudge

At their summit last month, US President Barack Obama and Chinese leader Hu Jintao said in a joint statement that they had 鈥渁greed that sincere and constructive inter-Korean dialogue is an essential step.鈥�

鈥淪outh Korea was originally going to reject talks with the North, but because the US made a strong request, we felt it was important to accept a conversation,鈥� says Dong Yongsuen, an expert on North Korea with the Samsung Economic Research Institute.

Seoul is wary of being caught in a dead end, however. 鈥淣orth Korea wants these talks to create the chance of restarting six-party talks so that they can talk to the Americans, that鈥檚 all,鈥� worries one senior South Korean official.

The six-party talks aimed at ending Pyongyang鈥檚 nuclear weapons program in return for aid and diplomatic recognition by the US have been stalled since 2007.

Though Washington has publicly supported Seoul鈥檚 demand for an apology from North Korea, and a pledge it will not repeat last year鈥檚 provocations, it is clear the US would like the government here to be liberal in how it interprets what would, at best, be a half-hearted North Korean statement.

The government 鈥渋s prepared to construe鈥� a suitable North Korean formulation as an apology, believes Han Sung-joo, a former foreign minister and ambassador to the US. 鈥淚f they continue to balk they might lose their majority support among the public,鈥� Professor Han suggests.

Split on public opinion

The South Korean electorate is 鈥� as ever 鈥� split over policy toward the North.

The Cheonan and Yeonpyeong incidents 鈥渉ave turned public opinion quite a bit against North Korea,鈥� says Daniel Pinkston, an analyst here with the International Crisis Group think tank. Even government critics 鈥渁re totally exasperated with North Korean behavior,鈥� he adds.

At the same time, voters 鈥渄on鈥檛 want these incidents exaggerated,鈥� says Kim Dae-joong, a columnist with the conservative Chosun Ilbo daily. 鈥淏ecause if we retaliated it would bring all out war, and people do not want that again,鈥� he explains.

After months of tension 鈥減eople are beginning to feel that enough is enough,鈥� says Paik Hak-soon, a political analyst at the Sejong Institute, a prominent think tank. 鈥淣ow the government is under heavy pressure from the US to lower tensions, and pressure from the public, so it has to find an exit strategy鈥� through talks with the North.

Despite the North Korean walkout two weeks ago, 鈥渋t is too early to say whether the talks have been suspended and will resume, or whether they have broken down,鈥� says Mr. Kim at the Unification Ministry.

Dr. Dong believes Pyongyang鈥檚 abrupt exit was part of 鈥渁n emotional game. They realize South Korea is getting more flexible so they are playing a game to get what they want,鈥� he says. 鈥淭his is a process, and it鈥檚 not over yet.鈥�

Donald Kirk contributed to this article.