Step toward peace? South Korea agrees to talk with North Korea.
| Seoul, South Korea
North Korea and South Korea are apparently on their way to talking again.
Hours after President Obama and China鈥檚 President Hu Jintao called for 鈥渟incere and constructive inter-Korean dialogue, North Korea's highest defense official messaged South Korea鈥檚 defense minister proposing talks on 鈥渕ilitary issues.鈥�
The North Korean message and South Korean response do not necessarily mean a breakthrough, say analysts here, but they represent another step away from the atmosphere of confrontation and brinksmanship after the bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island in November.
The message
The message, according to South Korea鈥檚 Unification Ministry, indicated North Korea鈥檚 willingness to discuss such 鈥減rovocations鈥� as the shelling of the island and the sinking of a South Korean Navy ship in nearby waters in March. All told, 50 people died in those attacks 鈥� two Marines, two civilians on the island, and 46 sailors on the ship.
South Korea, promptly accepting the proposal for talks by Kim Young-chun, who is minister of the People鈥檚 Armed Forces, said the South would use the talks to 鈥渁sk North Korea to take responsible measures鈥� for last year鈥檚 attacks. An official at the South鈥檚 Unification Ministry said the South would propose separate talks between high-ranking officials on denuclearization 鈥� that is, the basic inter-Korean talks that the South has long demanded as a prelude to six-party talks.
The North Korean proposal said nothing about demands for the North to live up to previous agreements to give up its nuclear weapon program, but the timing is widely interpreted here as a dividend of Chinese pressure to ease tensions on the Korean peninsula 鈥� and the meeting this week between Mr. Obama and Mr. Hu.
The Obama-Hu summit factor
Perhaps the most significant outcome of the Washington meeting, in the view of South Korean officials, is that the two presidents 鈥渆xpressed concern鈥� about North Korea鈥檚 uranium enrichment program while calling for steps to 鈥渆arly resumption of the six-party talks,鈥� last held in Beijing in December 2008.
鈥淭hey recognized the problem of uranium enrichment,鈥� says Han Sung-joo, a former foreign minister, 鈥渁nd China is clearly talking about North Korea violating the Sept. 19 agreement鈥� 鈥� the statement agreed on at six-party talks in Beijing on Sept. 19, 2005, under which the North would give up it nuclear program in exchange for massive economic aid.
The expression of 鈥渃oncern鈥� about uranium enrichment is especially significant since North Korea in November first showed off its new facility to produce the uranium for nuclear warheads.
The Geneva framework agreement of 1994, under which North Korea shut down another reactor for producing plutonium, fell apart after revelation of the uranium program in 2002, but North Korea for several years denied anything to do with enriching uranium.
A senior official on the staff of South Korea's President Lee Myung-bak says resolution of the uranium issue and a freeze on North Korea鈥檚 missile and nuclear programs 鈥渨ill be the litmus test to see if we can pursue any grand bargain.鈥� Meanwhile, he warns, South Korea is placing 鈥減riority鈥� on building up its defenses, and 鈥渢here will be a clear response鈥� if North Korea again attacks the South.
Mr. Han, the former foreign minister who has also served as South Korea鈥檚 ambassador to the US, also credits the US, at the summit this week, with having 鈥減ersuaded China to accept the importance of having North-South dialogue in advance of six-party talks.鈥� North Korea has repeatedly called for Russia and Japan as well as China, the US, and the two Koreas to return to those talks, 鈥渨ithout preconditions,鈥� while skipping demands for North-South talks.
Paik Hak-soon, a long-time analyst of North Korea at the Sejong Institute, an influential think tank here, says Obama and Hu 鈥渃onfirmed the basic principles of how to lower tensions and deal with the nuclear issue.鈥� The next step, he says, is to 鈥渃reate actions that follow these high-level exchanges,鈥� with US officials coming to Seoul and Chinese officials going to Pyongyang to bring about results.
Pressing apology?
As for South Korean demands for an 鈥渁pology鈥� for past provocations and 鈥渁ction鈥� on the North鈥檚 nuclear program, says Mr. Paik, 鈥渨e have to have dialogue鈥� and South Korea will have to soften conditions.鈥� South Korea, he says, can go on pressing its basic points in actual negotiations.
A senior South Korean official suggests, however, that the road to any North-South agreement will be difficult. 鈥淣orth Korea most fears full-scale war and defeat,鈥� he says. 鈥淢ilitary effectiveness of South Korea is most important.鈥� If North Korea 鈥渁pologizes first,鈥� he adds, 鈥渨e will talk about the nuclear issue.鈥�
Gary Sorman, a French economist who has written extensively on China and North Korea, warns of the risks of trusting either of them to live up to any agreements.
鈥淣othing can be decided in North Korea without China,鈥� says Mr. Sorman. 鈥淣orth Korea is completely manipulated by China.鈥�
As for whether the US can get North Korea to stop its nuclear program, says Sorman, 鈥渢he answer is no.鈥� The US and other countries 鈥渉ave no practical way of stopping this nuclear program,鈥� he says. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 know how to stop this program,鈥� while China 鈥渉as a strong interest in keeping North Korea in its divisive role.鈥�
The best Obama can hope for, he says, "is stopping these attacks 鈥� but only for a brief period.鈥�
