海角大神

Colombia votes for its next president, weighing social support against security

Colombians will vote in a pivotal presidential election Sunday, pitting the socialist policies of the nation鈥檚 first leftist leader against a return to the more conservative, security-focused approach that once dominated Colombian politics.

鈥淭his government has provided help to many groups,鈥� says Otilia Garc铆a, in her 70s, of President Gustavo Petro鈥檚 social policies, including overhauling Colombia鈥檚 labor laws, almost doubling the minimum wage, and bringing more financial support for retirees who don鈥檛 qualify for pensions. 鈥淏ut the lack of security is killing us.鈥�

Colombian law bars reelection, but Mr. Petro has framed the vote as a referendum on his government, which disrupted Colombia鈥檚 political status quo. He has used his confrontational leadership style to dominate news coverage over the past four years, delivering fiery speeches from public squares and accusing legislators, judges, and even members of the central bank who oppose his policies of being 鈥渙ligarchs鈥� bent on undermining progress.

The approach has won Mr. Petro detractors, but also shifted the public gaze beyond the issues of violence that have weighed heavily on the South American country for generations.

鈥淧rior to this administration, Colombia鈥檚 principal concern was security,鈥� says Sergio Guzm谩n, a political risk analyst in Bogot谩. While violence is still a concern, 鈥渘ow there is a greater spotlight on issues like corruption, healthcare, and the economy.鈥�

What is Petro鈥檚 legacy?

Mr. Petro, a former Marxist guerrilla and longtime legislator, was the first leftist leader elected in Colombia鈥檚 history. He rose to power in a post-pandemic climate filled with frustrations over deep-seated poverty, economic inequality, and political corruption. But his record in office has been mixed, with polls indicating that roughly half the population disapproves of his government.

His social policies have been well received by Colombia鈥檚 poor. He also made a name for himself by confronting the U.S. government 鈥� a longtime Colombian ally 鈥� on issues such as immigration, drug policy, and the war in Gaza.

鈥淗e stood up for people who are vulnerable,鈥� says Carlos Rojas, a supporter of Mr. Petro鈥檚 party, the Historical Pact.

Others note that Colombia鈥檚 security situation has deteriorated under this administration, and are hoping that Mr. Petro will be replaced by a conservative leader who invests more resources in tackling criminal groups.

鈥淧etro has allowed rebel groups to gain ground,鈥� says Ismael L贸pez, a lawyer in the city of Bucaramanga, who supports right-wing populist Abelardo de la Espriella. 鈥淲e need someone who will put things in order again.鈥�

Mr. de la Espriella, who goes by the nickname 鈥淭he Tiger,鈥� has promised to build 10 mega-prisons across the country.

Colombia has been embroiled in internal conflict since the 1950s, when groups of farmers linked to the Liberal Party took up arms to defend their land and avoid persecution from the nation鈥檚 conservative government. A pact between both parties to rotate the nation鈥檚 presidency between them for four presidential periods reduced violence, but left many other movements, including communists, frozen out of power. It also sparked the formation of rebel groups such as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or the FARC, that initially fought for social justice, but later focused on controlling illicit economies, including the cocaine trade.

In 2016, more than 13,000 FARC fighters laid down their weapons under a peace deal, which enabled the guerrilla group to become a political party. But smaller rebel groups began to take control of rural areas once occupied by the FARC. Today, they have expanded their presence to as many as half of the nation鈥檚 municipalities, says Juan Carlos Ruiz V谩squez, a professor of government at Bogot谩鈥檚 Rosario University, and use that territory to run drug-trafficking routes, illegal mines, and other criminal enterprises.

Mr. Petro鈥檚 government has tried to persuade rebels to disarm, granting ceasefires as an incentive to maintain negotiations. But many groups have used the lack of government pressure to rearm, and step up crimes against civilians, including extortion and kidnappings.

鈥淭his government came into office thinking that as the nation鈥檚 first left-wing administration, it had a good chance of bringing criminal groups to the negotiation table,鈥� says Elizabeth Dickinson, a Colombia analyst at the International Crisis Group. 鈥淭hat proved very wrong.鈥�

Some were displaced by violence in Colombia in 2025, twice as many as in 2024, according to a recent report by the Red Cross. Last year, Colombia experienced 鈥渢he worst humanitarian consequences of armed conflict in the past decade,鈥� the report noted.

The decline in security has hurt the chances of Mr. Petro鈥檚 party getting reelected. Even some of his more loyal constituencies have raised doubts over the Historical Pact鈥檚 capacity to control crime.

Jos茅 Antonio Yalanda, an Indigenous leader from southwestern Colombia, says rebel groups are encroaching on his tribe鈥檚 territory in Cauca Department, imposing curfews and pressuring farmers to grow coca leaves to supply local cocaine labs.

His community of roughly 2,000 people supported Mr. Petro overwhelmingly in the 2022 election, but he says it is still undecided over whom to back this time.

鈥淲e鈥檙e tired of politicians who make promises and forget about us after they get into power,鈥� Mr. Yalanda says.

Diversifying demands

Colombia鈥檚 security situation has not been Mr. Petro鈥檚 only challenge. Economic reforms promised by the government, such as changes to national labor laws and the pension system, were stalled in the Congress during the first three years of his term.

In December, Mr. Petro used his presidential powers to raise the nation鈥檚 minimum wage by 23%, a hike that was four times greater than last year鈥檚 inflation rate. A high court in Colombia is still reviewing whether it was legal.

As the nation prepares to vote on May 31, Mr. Petro鈥檚 rivals are trying to shift the conversation back to security, where his administration has been the weakest.

The front-runner this weekend is a member of Mr. Petro鈥檚 party, Iv谩n Cepeda. The longtime senator and former negotiator in Colombia鈥檚 peace process with the FARC has promised to 鈥渞edistribute wealth鈥� by doubling down on subsidies for elderly people and those who operate small farms, and charging companies wealth taxes. He has floated calling for a constituent assembly 鈥� a mechanism to rewrite Colombia鈥檚 constitution 鈥� if the legislature doesn鈥檛 approve more of the Historical Pact鈥檚 economic reforms.

The main opposition candidates say touching the constitution would undermine Colombia鈥檚 democracy by weakening checks and balances, as occurred two decades ago in neighboring Venezuela. The through line on the political right is a hard-line focus on security, with one candidate, Paloma Valencia, saying she wants to make criminal groups 鈥渇eel the iron fist of Colombian women.鈥�

Ms. Valencia, who would be Colombia鈥檚 first female president, has promised to reduce a fiscal deficit, which doubled under Mr. Petro, and says she would cancel peace talks between the government and rebel groups.

Polls suggest about 4 in 10 voters will support Mr. Cepeda on Sunday. But to avoid a runoff, the winner will need at least 50% of the vote.

Even if Mr. Petro鈥檚 political party loses, analysts expect some of his reforms to remain, especially as Colombians become used to more social and economic rights.

鈥淲hat this government has done is to change Colombia from being a single-issue country, focused on security, to a country that has many different issues,鈥� says Mr. Guzm谩n. The next leader鈥檚 challenge may be trying to balance the public鈥檚 growing demands.