海角大神

What Bolsonaro coup verdict means for Brazilian trust

The guilty verdict of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, often called the 鈥淭rump of the Tropics,鈥� shows a level of accountability here that many in the United States wish could be matched at home. But the ruling could end up polarizing a nation whose divisions brought the populist leader to power in the first place.

On Sept. 11, the five-judge panel delivered its historic verdict. Alongside seven co-defendants, Mr. Bolsonaro was convicted on all five counts related to an attempted coup to remain in power after he lost reelection. He was sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison.

鈥淗istory teaches us that impunity, omission, and cowardliness are not options for pacification,鈥� Alexandre de Moraes, the lead judge on the case, said as the trial opened Sept. 2.

For many in Brazil and abroad, the guilty verdict is a win for democracy, demonstrating the resilience of the country鈥檚 institutions just 40 years after the end of the 1964-1985 military dictatorship. But Brazil鈥檚 powerful judiciary has faced criticism for being too politically active in the past, and in the deeply divided country some are concerned that the momentous trial could risk undermining confidence in the courts.

鈥淭he [legal] process is important,鈥� says Diego Werneck, a law professor at Insper business school in S茫o Paulo. He says that given the attempted coup, it was paramount to figure out who was responsible and how to hold them to account. But the exercise of carrying that out has been marred by controversies over procedural issues like pretrial arrests, the defense鈥檚 access to the vast evidence files, and the speed at which the trial has taken place. 鈥淎 series of wrong decisions can be bad for the Supreme Court鈥檚 legitimacy, even if the final judgment is right.鈥�

Debate over court鈥檚 purview

The court ruled that Mr. Bolsonaro led a criminal organization involving ministers and members of the armed forces to illegally cling to power beyond his 2019-2022 term. This included spreading mistrust in the voting system ahead of the election, contemplating military intervention after he lost, and even drafting a plan to kill his successor, Luiz In谩cio Lula da Silva, commonly known as Lula. The judges said the coup attempt culminated in the Jan. 8, 2023, attacks on government institutions in Bras铆lia by Bolsonaro supporters hoping to unseat the new Lula government.

The decision was not unanimous. Justice Luiz Fux voted against convicting Mr. Bolsonaro and five co-defendants of an attempted coup d鈥櫭﹖at, after arguing the Supreme Court did not have jurisdiction to try the case (an argument pushed by the defense). 鈥淚t is not the Supreme Court鈥檚 role to hold a political trial on what is good or bad, convenient or inconvenient, appropriate or inappropriate,鈥� Justice Fux said while explaining his position in a 13-hour speech on Sept. 10.

Mr. Bolsonaro, under house arrest since August, has always denied the charges. He found a powerful ally in U.S. President Donald Trump, who called the trial a 鈥渨itch hunt鈥� and slapped sanctions on Justice Moraes. 聽showed 36% of Brazilians did not believe Mr. Bolsonaro planned a coup. (Just over half said he did.)

Trust in the judiciary has traditionally been low in Brazil, reflecting widespread mistrust in public institutions that is common across Latin America. Experts also say that differing opinions about a top tribunal鈥檚 decisions are a normal part of democracy, particularly in Brazil, where the 11-member Supreme Court has broad powers to rule on a plethora of public interest issues, from constitutional rights to tax matters to the alleged illegal actions of individual elected officials.

And in recent years, 鈥渢he Supreme Court has increasingly taken on a responsibility for cleaning up politics,鈥� says Estef芒nia Barboza, a law professor at the Federal University of Paran谩. This isn鈥檛 limited to targeting actions by conservative politicians: In the 2010s, the Supreme Court heard two big corruption cases that put members of Lula鈥檚 Workers' Party behind bars. This contributed to a public impression that the court had turned into a political actor.

Recent efforts by the far right to delegitimize the judiciary has amplified mistrust, says Dr. Barboza. Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 supporters have called for the impeachment of Justice Moraes and the court鈥檚 closure.

Justice Moraes has become a lightning rod in Brazil. He has come to represent for the public the controversies over the court鈥檚 role as a political arbitrator. As lead judge on a number of Bolsonaro-related cases, he opened investigations, ordered arrests and the shuttering of social media accounts, and issued many decisions alone.

This is allowed under the court鈥檚 regulations, as long as the full bench later votes on whether to maintain the decision. But experts say that it should be exceptional and that the court overuses it. Supporters say it has been necessary to protect democracy. Detractors brand Justice Moraes a tyrant. Moderate critics like Dr. Werneck worry that unilateral procedural decisions risk weakening due process and that people鈥檚 trust in the justice system will be dictated by their opinion of individual justices.

According to released during the trial this month, 50% of Brazilians say they trust the Supreme Court and 47% do not. The split falls largely along political lines 鈥� among people who voted for Lula in 2022, 73% trust the court. That figure falls to 22% among Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 voters.

That was evident on the streets during Brazil鈥檚 Independence Day, which fell halfway through the trial. 鈥淚 think it鈥檚 fair. [Mr. Bolsonaro is] being given the right to defense,鈥� says Marcia Santiago, a teacher who joined a left-wing demonstration on the sidelines of the official military parade in Rio de Janeiro on Sept. 7. Across town, Bolsonaro supporters draped in Brazilian and U.S. flags 鈥� a nod to President Trump鈥檚 support for Mr. Bolsonaro 鈥� dismissed the proceedings as a 鈥渇arce鈥� aimed at silencing their political movement.

What next for Brazil?

The trial鈥檚 outcome will simply reinforce existing polarization, says Fl谩via Maia, an analyst on the judiciary at Jota, a publication focused on legal issues. 鈥淧eople鈥檚 opinions are already formed,鈥� she says.

But Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 conviction is not the end of the process. Around two dozen associates are yet to stand trial for their alleged role in the coup plot 鈥� proceedings that will likely spill over into next year, when presidential elections are due.

In the short term, the Lula government is bracing for the possibility of retaliatory sanctions from the U.S. and faces a political battle in Congress. Right-wing lawmakers are lobbying to pass an amnesty bill that would benefit the former president and his supporters, riding roughshod over the Supreme Court鈥檚 verdicts. Some analysts see a negotiated amnesty 鈥� perhaps made easier by Justice Fux鈥檚 diverging vote 鈥� a likely outcome.

鈥淓ven though the court is powerful today, it鈥檚 difficult to guarantee that its decisions will stick in the future,鈥� says Dr. Werneck. 鈥淚t is going to be forced to defend its decisions and its role in these coup investigations for a while still.鈥�