Trump鈥檚 interests or US interests? Why Brazil tariff threats feel new.
| Berlin, Rio de Janeiro, and Mexico City
At a glance, President Donald Trump鈥檚 threat on Wednesday to levy a 50% tariff against Brazil might appear unremarkable. His second term has been defined by such statements.
But the president鈥檚 letter, posted to social media, was not like what has come before.
Mr. Trump began by declaring that legal proceedings against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro were a 鈥渨itch hunt鈥� and 鈥渟hould end IMMEDIATELY!鈥�
Why We Wrote This
Tariffs have become central to President Donald Trump鈥檚 foreign policy playbook. But in citing a 鈥渨itch hunt鈥� against a political ally in his Brazil tariff threat, he risks conflating his own personal interests with those of the United States.
Latin America is no stranger to the United States imposing its interests, sometimes militarily. Economic measures from boycotts to sanctions have long been a way for the U.S. to compel change around the world. Tariffs are just another tool in Mr. Trump鈥檚 belt. What is striking about Wednesday鈥檚 letter is its seemingly arbitrary and personal nature. The U.S. actually runs a trade surplus with Brazil, undermining the economic rationale for tariffs. And among a group of nations chafing under America鈥檚 global influence, Brazil has been seen as a voice of relative moderation.
Yet Mr. Trump is focusing his political power on the case of a close political ally who faces charges for contesting an election found to be legitimate by multiple sources 鈥� a situation with echoes of his own. In doing so, he is signaling to the world that his own agenda can dramatically change a nation鈥檚 prospects in an instant.
鈥淭his doesn鈥檛 fit within broader historical patterns of U.S. interventionism in Latin America. It has a different character, and that鈥檚 because it stems from the very particular style of Donald Trump,鈥� says Michael Shifter, senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington. 鈥淚t is completely melding what his personal feelings are with U.S. interests and viewing them as one in the same. That is distinctive. We just haven鈥檛 seen that before.鈥�
The effects could be far-reaching, with signs of a patriotic surge in support for embattled Brazilian President Luiz In谩cio Lula da Silva, popularly known as Lula. It also risks accelerating some allies鈥� search for more reliable partners.
鈥淚t is becoming harder and harder to understand what it means to be a friend or an ally of the United States,鈥� says Bruna Santos, a Brazil expert at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. 鈥淭he message is that even friendly governments can be punished if they fall out of line.鈥�
Brazilian investigators say that after narrowly losing the 2022 presidential election, Mr. Bolsonaro 鈥渁cted and was directly and effectively aware of the actions鈥� of a criminal organization that planned to launch a coup d鈥櫭﹖at. On Jan. 8, 2023, Bolsonaro supporters invaded government buildings in the capital in what investigators say was an attempted coup. This March, a panel of judges from Brazil鈥檚 Supreme Court unanimously voted for a trial to proceed.
Since that time, one of the former president鈥檚 sons, Eduardo Bolsonaro, has taken a leave of absence from his role as a member of Congress to lobby the Trump administration to bring pressure on Brazil.
There is precedent for the American government using extraordinary measures to punish foreign officials accused of human rights abuses. Congress passed the Magnitsky Act in 2012 after Russia imprisoned, tortured, and killed a Russian tax lawyer investigating corruption.
鈥淭he circumstances are completely different to an objective observer,鈥� says Gary Hufbauer, a nonresident fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. 鈥淏ut that鈥檚 what Trump has as his precedent.鈥�
Lula has called Mr. Trump鈥檚 demands an outrageous attempt to undermine the nation鈥檚 sovereignty. And reaction from the streets of Rio de Janeiro suggests the tariffs could only strengthen his resolve.
鈥淚鈥檓 entirely in favor of Lula鈥檚 reaction, defending [our] sovereignty,鈥� says Fernanda Canavez, a teacher. Brazil 鈥渃an鈥檛 back down. It鈥檚 one thing to need [to maintain a relationship with the U.S.], it鈥檚 another to be held hostage.鈥�
Mr. Trump鈥檚 frustration with Brazil has been building. His letter also cites a Brazilian court decision that found social media companies could be accountable for content posted by users 鈥� a decision he said amounted to censorship of U.S. companies.
Then there is Brazil鈥檚 crucial role in BRICS 鈥� a bloc of nations including China, Russia, and India. BRICS explicitly seeks to craft a less U.S.-centric world order. They drew Mr. Trump鈥檚 ire at a recent meeting for discussing ways to lessen the global hegemony of the dollar. Mr. Trump promised to hit any nation aligned with BRICS with a 10% tariff.
鈥淭hese tariffs are clearly part of Trump鈥檚 wider policy of trying to redraw global politics,鈥� says Rubens Duarte, coordinator of LabMundo, which analyzes major trends in society, economics, and politics.
Yet the huge 50% tariff and the demand to drop the case against Mr. Bolsonaro are curious, especially since there is very little Lula can do about the case.
Says Mr. Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue: 鈥淭he message a lot of governments will take away from this is that ... they can鈥檛 live that way and run their economies so subjective to [Mr. Trump鈥檚] whims.鈥�
