海角大神

Colombia made strides toward peace. Senator鈥檚 shooting underscores challenges ahead.

Doris Su谩rez Guzm谩n, once a guerrilla fighter, is skeptical about the prospects for peace in Colombia.

She was one of roughly 13,000 members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a leftist guerrilla group, that signed a peace deal with the government in 2016.

Since then, former FARC fighters have been elected to Congress, obtained university degrees, and, like Ms. Su谩rez, opened businesses and civil society organizations.

When President Gustavo Petro, a former guerrilla fighter himself, came into office in 2022, he promised to take peace even further, pledging 鈥渢otal peace.鈥� It鈥檚 meant to tackle conflicts beyond the FARC, including organized crime and other insurgencies.

But only one-third of the commitments in the original 2016 peace agreement had been fully implemented by November 2023, according to a report by the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame. And so far, Mr. Petro鈥檚 total peace experiment hasn鈥檛 lived up to the lofty goals its name implies.

While many former guerrillas like Ms. Su谩rez have thrived, nearly 500 have been killed, mostly because of their earlier links to the FARC. Ms. Su谩rez can鈥檛 help but wonder if she could be next.

鈥淲hat confidence will [other armed groups] have鈥� to build peace, if they see people like her, who signed on for it, living in fear? Ms. Su谩rez asks.

Violence has ticked up in recent years, punctuated over the weekend by the daytime shooting of a high-profile politician and presidential hopeful, Miguel Uribe Turbay. Colombia hasn鈥檛 seen this level of political violence in nearly three decades, observers say, with some calling the assassination attempt an attack on Colombia鈥檚 democracy.

As Mr. Petro enters his final year in office, there鈥檚 skepticism around whether, in a country that鈥檚 lived through so much conflict, peace is even within reach.

鈥淧eace isn鈥檛 really about making big agreements. It鈥檚 about everyday life, it鈥檚 about culture,鈥� says Daniela Castillo Aguill贸n, a former government official previously involved in Mr. Petro鈥檚 total peace process. 鈥淚t is difficult to make peace; making war is easier.鈥�

Total peace promise

The between the Colombian government and the FARC, the world鈥檚 oldest insurgency at the time, granted 10 congressional seats to FARC representatives and set out a 15-year plan for rural land reform, transitional justice, and the reintegration of former guerrillas. But it left territorial and criminal-power vacuums that have since been filled by other criminal groups.

The peace deal was initially narrowly voted down in a referendum in October 2016 with 50.2% voting against it. The president at the time made over 50 amendments to address citizen concerns, and a new version passed through Congress. It became clear that despite wanting an end to the conflict, many Colombians had deep reservations about negotiating with armed groups 鈥� and that skepticism persists today.

Mr. Petro sought to expand the peace deal to a handful of armed and criminal groups operating in Colombia 鈥� whether they were ideologically driven, like the FARC, or not.

鈥淭he president鈥檚 entire political life is about peace,鈥� says Duvalier S谩nchez Arango, a congressman from Colombia鈥檚 Green Alliance party.

Yet, his efforts have not delivered the desired results. In Catatumbo, a northeastern region bordering Venezuela, have been displaced since January due to violence. Since 2021, the number of Colombians living in territories controlled by armed actors has increased by 70%, according to the Norwegian Refugee Council.

Ceasefires brokered by the government have often allowed these entities to regroup and grow stronger, making peace in Colombia increasingly fragile, says Mr. S谩nchez.

The president has also leaned into polarizing language around perceived opponents being paramilitary members and armed enemies. Analysts are placing some blame for the shooting of Mr. Uribe, a conservative politician who is hospitalized and in critical condition, .

A long path ahead

Peace was always going to be a long process 鈥� something Ms. Su谩rez and her colleagues at La Trocha 鈥撀燣a Casa de la Paz, a four-story cultural center and pub in Bogot谩 run by ex-combatants, understand well.

鈥淩eincorporating into civilian life has been difficult, you get stigmatized,鈥� says David Villegas, a former guerrilla who was sentenced to eight years in prison and completed three before signing the 2016 deal.

Behind him at La Trocha, where he works, Marxist posters and slogans like 鈥淲e were not born for war鈥� cover the walls. The house鈥檚 name 鈥� la trocha, slang for a narrow, rugged path 鈥� symbolizes the group鈥檚 vision. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a path toward peace,鈥� Mr. Villegas says. 鈥淵ou have to keep walking, because otherwise the path will close in front of you.鈥�

Colombia鈥檚 conflict dates to the late 1940s when civil war between liberals and conservatives broke out based on deep social, political, and economic inequalities. It morphed over the decades, becoming increasingly complex as more groups entered the fray, each with its own interests.

Mr. Petro has treated a complicated conflict in a simple way, says Ms. Castillo, the former government worker. His peace negotiations, she says, have lacked technical depth and group-specific strategies.

Many criminal groups profit from booming illicit economies like drug trafficking and illegal mining, and for those who do want to demobilize, there are limited opportunities and stigma.

鈥淚f you want a country in peace, you have to speak with everyone,鈥� says Leonardo Gonz谩lez Peraf谩n, director of Indepaz, Colombia鈥檚 Institute for Development and Peace Studies.

But 鈥淎 good negotiation is not enough,鈥� adds Mariano Aguirre, associate fellow at Chatham House and former senior adviser on peace-building at the United Nations in Colombia.

鈥淵ou need to implement change.鈥�

Is peace any closer?

Despite persistent violence and sluggish reforms, the Colombian government has implemented social programs aimed at disincentivizing criminal activity 鈥� though with limited effects on violence. These include cash transfers to youth to stay out of gangs, or a new coca crop substitution program that pays farmers to stop growing illicit crops.

Civil society has played an important role, too, pushing peace from the ground up.

Take La Trocha, which is visited by around 400 patrons a week. Former fighters promote peace and leftist ideas through education, social events, and job creation 鈥� for both ex-combatants and victims of the conflict.

鈥淲e shouldn鈥檛 be killing each other over ideas,鈥� says Ms. Su谩rez, who once fought in Antioquia鈥檚 mountains for her leftist ideals. Now, she is concerned about political polarization.

Saturday鈥檚 attack on Mr. Uribe could further fuel political polarization. An Invamer poll from February shows 70% of the population thinks total peace plans are going in the wrong direction, while 45% says they believe it would be better to abandon peace talks and try to defeat armed groups militarily. That鈥檚 up from 21% when Mr. Petro took office almost three years ago.

Ms. Su谩rez, who spent 16 years behind bars before signing the peace deal, says she understands both the cost of war and the payoff that can come with a life in peace. Peace, so far, has not worked the way she imagined it would for her, but, despite the ongoing challenges, she鈥檚 putting her faith in it for now as the only viable path forward.

鈥淚 thought I was going to die in prison,鈥� she says. Every day since has been a 鈥渃elebration.鈥�