Why is Jeb Bush attacking Hillary Clinton, not GOP rivals?
On the eve of Wednesday's GOP debate, a new ad from the Bush campaign avoids targeting the Republican candidates who are beating him in the polls.
Crews prepare the venue for the Oct. 28 CNBC Republican presidential debate, on Tuesday,inside the Coors Events Center at the University of Colorado in Boulder, Colo.
Brennan Linsley/AP
Say you鈥檙e Jeb Bush鈥檚 campaign manager and you鈥檙e planning to release a political attack ad on the eve of a crucial Republican primary debate. Who do you target? Donald Trump, who鈥檚 been bullying you for months? Marco Rubio, who鈥檚 emerging as a new hope for the establishment GOP? Ben Carson, who鈥檚 now the leader in crucial Iowa polls?
Nope, no, and nyet. The Bush campaign on Tuesday dropped a aimed squarely at Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, not a Republican rival.
Yes, the former secretary of State, who Bush won鈥檛 face unless he recovers to defeat the rest of the GOP primary field.
As ads go, it鈥檚 pretty solid. It starts with clips of Mrs. Clinton saying liberalish things and promising to tax the wealthy to pay for her plans.
鈥淗illary is not a moderate鈥� comes up on screen. Then there are quick cuts of punditry and Clinton speeches intended to tie her directly to her former boss and charge that she would be a third term for Barack Obama.
Halfway through, the mood changes and Jeb! appears on screen. 鈥淚 reject the pessimism of the left that just thinks we have to become more dependent on government,鈥� Mr. Bush says. Then the ad wraps up with a whirl-through of Bush looking energetic, promoting jobs, and saying 鈥淚 know how to do this!鈥�
Why is Bush focusing on Clinton, as opposed to his actual immediate threats?
Probably because he and his advisers calculate that his best chance remains punching up, portraying himself as an equal to the presumptive Democratic nominee and arguing (implicitly) that he鈥檚 the person best positioned to defeat her.
The campaign makes these assertions directly in a for important donors obtained by The Washington Post. It quotes Quinnipiac University poll numbers to the effect that Bush leads Clinton 44 to 42 percent in a direct match-up, and that voters consider the former Florida governor more 鈥減residential鈥� than the former secretary of State.
Bush鈥檚 problem is that to this point his electability argument has fallen on unconvinced ears. This is true not just for GOP voters in general, but also for party elites. He鈥檚 failed to win the nod as the establishment choice for the nomination.
The data point that really shows this is his lack of endorsements. Primary political endorsements aren鈥檛 usually advertisements per se 鈥� they鈥檙e a means for insiders to signal preferences to each other and for party leaders to coalesce around a preferred candidate. In the past, they鈥檝e been an accurate predictor of which hopeful will succeed and which will fail.
Right now Bush has 36 endorsement 鈥減oints,鈥� according to . That puts him in first place in the GOP race, but only barely. And the real story is that many GOP figures have yet to throw their weight behind anyone.聽
You know who鈥檚 winning the endorsement primary? Hillary Clinton. She鈥檚 got 385 鈥減oints鈥� in the FiveThirtyEight calculus. That鈥檚 party dominance.
Maybe Bush can turn his campaign around Wednesday night. It will be interesting to see how much of his time he spends talking about Clinton and Democrats, as opposed to the Republicans who are beating him in the polls.