GOP debate: What's behind the Ben Carson surge
| Washington
Ben Carson is easy to underestimate. Soft-spoken and spiritual, the renowned neurosurgeon doesn鈥檛 display the bombast and bravado of a certain other candidate in the Republican presidential field.
Even Dr. Carson鈥檚 most controversial of statements 鈥� such as his recent comparison of women who have abortions 鈥� are uttered in such soothing tones they can just slide by.
And unlike Donald Trump, whose rhetoric is all about winning, Carson projects a zen-like calm over his prospects.
鈥淚鈥檓 going to be who I am, and that鈥檚 it,鈥� he . 鈥淚f that works, great, and if it doesn鈥檛, that鈥檚 fine, too.鈥�
The reality is that Carson has just pulled ahead in the latest national poll, , and is now聽 for the kickoff Iowa caucuses. When he and Mr. Trump take the stage Wednesday night for the third Republican debate, Carson may face an onslaught. Already, the hyperkinetic billionaire has slammed the mild-mannered doctor as 鈥渓ower energy than Jeb Bush,鈥� and used a mocking tone in discussing Carson鈥檚 Seventh-day Adventist faith. Carson has called for an apology. Trump sees no need to issue one.
It鈥檚 unclear whether the 鈥淭rump treatment鈥� will hurt Carson; it might even help him. But it is clear that Carson has impressed plenty of Republican voters, even those not intending to support him in the primaries. His favorability ratings are consistently the highest of all the Republican candidates. He also wins on .
Not everyone is sold on Carson, of course. His mounting support in Iowa 鈥� bolstered by evangelicals 鈥� might not translate to more secular states like New Hampshire. But the reasons for Carson's appeal were certainly apparent during a focus group of 12 likely Republican primary voters 鈥� six men, six women 鈥� brought together in Indianapolis recently by veteran pollster Peter Hart.
While focus groups aren鈥檛 scientific, the reaction to Carson was extraordinary.
It offered a glimpse at Republican voters' desire for outsiders, with 10 of the 12 participants saying they didn鈥檛 see the value of governing experience for a presidential nominee. But it also suggested that at this relatively early stage in the campaign, it鈥檚 Carson鈥檚 persona 鈥� not his policy views 鈥� that dominates the impressions of the Republican primary electorate.
Carson's Midwest appeal
Whether they planned on voting for him or not, the Indiana Republicans expressed wide admiration for his life story and his emphasis on morality and family. While voters鈥� one-word descriptions of Trump were often negative (鈥渋mpulsive,鈥� 鈥渟elf-serving,鈥� 鈥渓oud鈥�), descriptors for Carson were uniformly positive 鈥� 鈥渨ise,鈥� 鈥渢houghtful,鈥� 鈥渋ntelligent,鈥� 鈥済entleman,鈥� 鈥済ood morals.鈥�
鈥淗e鈥檚 a natural born leader,鈥� says Christopher Berry, a middle-aged Carson supporter who works in agriculture. 鈥淗e grew up in poverty and he became a multimillionaire, so he鈥檚 lived in every class and he can relate to every class. And doing so, he鈥檚 a role model for those living in poverty.鈥�
Mr. Berry also likes that Carson 鈥渉asn鈥檛 had a political life,鈥� and says that his African-American race means 鈥渉e鈥檚 going to get certain groups to vote for him.鈥�
The idea of Carson as a unifier was echoed by others. When asked which of the candidates would unite the country as president, 6 of the 12 focus group participants named Carson. Ten said Trump would be divisive.
Michael Price, who is deciding between Carson and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, says Carson can bring the country together 鈥渨here [President] Obama failed.鈥�
鈥淥bama turned black against white, rich against poor,鈥� says Mr. Price, a 60-something voter who works in transportation sales. 鈥淚 think Carson can bring that all together.鈥�
No controversy here
Notably, none of the participants brought up any of Carson鈥檚 controversial statements. He has compared the Affordable Care Act to slavery; questioned whether a Muslim should ever be president of the United States; and said the Holocaust would have been 鈥済reatly diminished鈥� if German citizens had been armed.
In fact, among Republicans in another Midwestern state, Iowa, where Carson now leads in the by nine percentage points, those remarks were all broadly popular: 81 percent liked the equation of Obamacare with slavery; 73 percent liked the doubts about a Muslim president; and 77 percent liked the comment about the Holocaust and guns.
Voters who find such remarks jarring can鈥檛 say they weren鈥檛 warned. "I'm probably never going to be politically correct because I'm not a politician,鈥� Carson said in May when he declared for president.
In the focus group, 鈥減olitical correctness鈥� didn鈥檛 come up. But Carson鈥檚 social media presence made an impression.
Shonda Sonnefield, a middle-aged homemaker, says Carson is her first choice because he鈥檚 鈥渢ransparent鈥� and 鈥減ersonable.鈥�
鈥淚 follow him on Facebook,鈥� she says. 鈥淗e answers questions every night, and he鈥檚 just very transparent about what he stands for and who he is, so you can at least get to know him better.鈥� 聽
Social media has been 鈥� both in introducing himself to voters and in fundraising. His $20 million haul in the third quarter of 2015 topped the GOP field.
The lure of the outsider
And what of Carson鈥檚 lack of governing experience, as with Trump and former CEO Carly Fiorina?聽Mr. Hart, who conducted the Indiana focus group for the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania, noted that Republicans have a history of nominating candidates with long experience in government.
The Indianans' reaction came back loud and clear: We鈥檙e tired of career politicians. One participant likened Washington to the political dystopia of the Netflix series 鈥淗ouse of Cards.鈥�
Not everyone dismissed governing experience. Josh Albrecht, a 20-something credit manager who supports Gov. John Kasich (R) of Ohio, said that he liked Carson, but part of being effective is 鈥減laying the game.鈥�
鈥淸President] Johnson knew how to twist arms to get things done,鈥� said Mr. Albrecht.
Carson supporters defended his ability to govern if he won the White House. He could surround himself with 鈥済ood people鈥� to help him, said Berry.
When asked to predict who has the best chance of defeating the Democratic nominee next year, four picked Carson 鈥� the most of any candidate.
Trump got two votes, and Ms. Fiorina got three. That鈥檚 9 out of 12 picking political outsiders.
In New Hampshire, questions
Some Iowa Republicans worry about picking someone so politically green. Connie Schmett, a member of the Polk County Republican Executive Committee, says Carson is 鈥渁 good man,鈥� but he has 鈥渁bsolutely no governing experience at all.鈥� She鈥檚 backing New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
Moreover, winning the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses would not necessarily give Carson momentum going into the New Hampshire primary a week later, says Andy Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
鈥淔irst off, New Hampshire is the second least religious state in the country, whereas Iowa Republican caucuses are really driven by evangelical voters and organized by evangelical churches,鈥� Mr. Smith says.
The last two winners of the Iowa GOP caucuses 鈥� former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee 鈥� came nowhere close to winning in New Hampshire.
One New Hampshire Republican, Kelly Roe of Keene, is impressed by Carson鈥檚 career, 鈥渂ut when he comes out with these really bizarre comments, like the one about Muslims, it鈥檚 hard to take him seriously.鈥�
"He鈥檚 no dummy to get where he鈥檚 gotten, but that doesn鈥檛 make him qualified to be president," adds Ms. Roe, who is in her 50s and works in human resources.聽聽
She's undecided about whom to support in the primary, but is considering former Governor Bush of Florida.聽鈥淗is talk about the balancing of budgets and Obamacare does interest me.鈥�
