Is Donald Trump sowing panic in GOP?
The question for the GOP establishment is no longer whether to attack Donald Trump, but how.
US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump takes a selfie with a supporter as he prepares to leave a campaign event in Anderson, S.C. on Tuesday.
Chris Keane/Reuters
Donald Trump is still on top. He鈥檚 been No. 1 in the polls for the GOP presidential nomination for three months now and his support appears stable. A new ABC/Washington Post survey shows him as the choice of 32 percent of Republican and GOP-leaning voters 鈥� about the same as a month ago.
鈥淭he numbers suggest that mixed reviews of his performance in the second Republican debate in California did little to dampen the enthusiasm of his supporters,鈥� .
Is Trump鈥檚 persistence causing the GOP establishment to panic? Well, 鈥減anic鈥� might not be the best word, but there鈥檚 evidence the powers-that-be are beginning to worry quite a bit about what Trump is doing to their plans. It鈥檚 dawned on them that that the chances of Trump winning the nomination might not be zero, and the chances of him affecting the nomination outcome are pretty high. For them, the question has become how to attack Trump, not whether to do it.
Right now the anti-Donald movement seems intent on hitting him as a liberal. That鈥檚 what traditional conservative groups such as the Club for Growth appear to be planning, in any case. As the plugged-in in the Washington Examiner, Club for Growth, and other members of the anti-tax ascendancy are looking for donors to fund an ad campaign that talks about Trump鈥檚 past donations to Democrats, his support for tax hikes on the rich, and his previous chummy relations with Hillary Clinton.
鈥淭heir core belief is that Trump cannot withstand a long and withering bombardment of negative ads,鈥� writes Mr. York.
Jeb Bush is already out there pushing these arguments. His campaign last month produced an ad depicting Trump as a lefty Nooouuuu Yawkah. Now he鈥檚 got an that accuses Trump of echoing the beliefs of filmmaker Michael Moore and other arch-liberals by partially blaming George W. Bush for allowing the 9/11 attacks on the United States.
鈥淭his is a man who has previously stated he would prefer Hillary Clinton had led negotiations on the nuclear agreement with Iran,鈥� writes former Governor Bush of Trump.
The problem with this line of attack is that it seems designed to shore up Bush鈥檚 own conservative credibility as much as tear down Trump鈥檚. Plus, there鈥檚 little evidence Trump voters are traditional conservatives. If anything, they appear to be drawn to the Donald for his belligerence and alpha-male personality. Many love his attacks on undocumented immigrants 鈥� an issue on which Trump has outflanked the GOP field to the right.
Trump鈥檚 appeal is class-based, not ideological, according to one compelling analysis of his voters. He鈥檚 consolidated the support of the GOP鈥檚 blue collar wing, , while the party鈥檚 white collar wing remains split and searching for a candidate around which to rally.
The Donald knows better than pundits or D.C.-based consultants about the best way to reach less-educated, less-wealthy voters, in this analysis. Thus, defeating him might depend on rallying the anti-Trump forces, which are currently split among a soccer-team鈥檚 worth of candidates, as opposed to changing the minds of Trump supporters.
鈥淔or those hoping to emerge as the choice of the party鈥檚 center-right block 鈥� a list that runs from Jeb Bush to John Kasich to Chris Christie 鈥� the principal challenge is to unify the party鈥檚 white-collar wing against Trump, or whoever supplants him as the favorite of more working-class and conservative voters,鈥� writes Mr. Brownstein.