海角大神

Jeb Bush has had enough of Donald Trump calling him 鈥渓ow energy,鈥� so he鈥檚 launching a counterattack. That may be understandable, considering Mr. Trump鈥檚 taunting. But is it a good idea?

We鈥檙e not convinced it is. But at this point, Mr. Bush may feel he has little choice.

First, the details: On Tuesday, the Bush campaign released meant to exploit Trump鈥檚 many past Republican apostasies. It begins with a clip meant to reinforce The Donald鈥檚 image as a very New York-style tycoon.

鈥淚鈥檝e lived in New York City, Manhattan, all my life. So my views are a little bit different than if I lived in Iowa,鈥� says a much younger Trump at the ad鈥檚 start.

Get that? This is what Bush is saying: Trump鈥檚 not from Iowa, see. Iowa, where that first-in-the-nation caucus is, and Trump is currently leading state polls. Are you listening, Iowans? He鈥檚 a Nooouuu Yawker.

Then 鈥淟iberal things Trump says," appears on screen, and the ad runs through Trump's past聽statements supporting abortion, Canada鈥檚 single-payer health-care system, higher taxes on rich people, President Obama鈥檚 stimulus package, and Hillary Clinton, who is 鈥渧ery talented.鈥�

In the attack ad genre, this is fairly basic. Trump did say all those things, albeit years ago and聽under different political circumstances. He鈥檚 now running in the Republican primary. How can it hurt to point out that in the past he鈥檚 been, in some ways, a functional Democrat?

Here鈥檚 one way it might backfire: Trump will hit back harder, and Bush will find that he鈥檚 brought dust bunnies to a mud ball fight.

Look at this on Bush鈥檚 immigration stance, released earlier this week. It juxtaposes Bush鈥檚 remark that illegal immigration can be an 鈥渁ct of love鈥� with photos of undocumented immigrants who have been charged with or convicted of murder.

This makes the infamous look as nuanced as a think tank discussion.

Second, the apostasies Jeb鈥檚 ad mentioned are anathema to the GOP elite. But if the rise of Trump has demonstrated anything, it is that the Republican rank-and-file may have different priorities than its leaders.

They may not be averse to higher tax rates for the wealthy, for one thing. They鈥檙e perhaps not in favor of Medicare cuts. A tough immigration policy, sure 鈥� but that鈥檚 one issue the Bush ad was careful to skirt.

Finally, political positions may not matter greatly to Trump voters at all. He draws some support from all GOP factions, from moderates to conservatives and Tea Party radicals. They are united in their approval of his approach to life. The core of his appeal isn鈥檛 a 10-point plan: It鈥檚 belligerence.

As we noted above, Bush might feel that given Trump鈥檚 thinly veiled attacks on his manhood, he has little choice but to mix it up. He needs to at least begin to try and wear away Trump鈥檚 voter appeal. This ad might be a start.

But we doubt that Bush鈥檚 actual problem with Trump is that he thinks Trump is Bernie Sanders in disguise.

鈥淚t鈥檚 telling that Jeb Bush is going after Trump for being a fake conservative, rather than for being a dangerously unserious person,鈥� , a writer for The Upshot explainer section of The New York Times.