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2014 elections: Might Democrats keep control of Senate after all?

A funny thing happened on the way to 'majority leader Mitch McConnell.' In the past few days, a number of the major election forecasting models have lurched back toward the Democrats.

Are Democrats going to maintain control of the Senate after all?

If so, that would be a surprise. Election fundamentals point to a GOP takeover. Mid-term elections generally swing towards the party that doesn鈥檛 hold the White House, for one thing. President Obama鈥檚 job approval ratings are so bad that they鈥檙e a stone around the chances of many Democratic candidates, for another. Enthusiasm and momentum seem more pronounced on the Republican side.

But a funny thing happened on the way to 鈥渕ajority leader Mitch McConnell.鈥� In the past few days, a number of the major election forecasting models have lurched back toward the Democrats.

The New York Times Upshot model now judges the race for the Senate to be , for instance, with a 51 percent chance Republicans will win a majority, and a 49 percent chance for Democrats.

鈥淭he probability is essentially the same as a coin flip,鈥� according to the Upshot.

The gives the GOP a slightly better 55 to 45 percent edge. That鈥檚 still pretty close 鈥� and it鈥檚 down from a 64 to 36 percent Republican lead on Sept. 1.

Then there鈥檚 the Washington Post Election Lab at its political science vertical. Today it gives Democrats the 51 percent in a 51-to-49 split.

All this has given some disaffected Democrats a little wind beneath their metaphorical wings.

鈥淎 week ago, I was thinking Dems were toast for Senate; now I think GOP could find a way to blow it,鈥� Memo editor and publisher Josh Marshall earlier today.

Well, missteps aren鈥檛 really what have caused Republican chances of winning the Senate to decline from 65+ percent plus to a toss-up. What鈥檚 happened is partly due to a change in the models themselves: As the election nears, they begin to place more emphasis on poll results in individual races, as opposed to underlying political fundamentals.

And there are some individual races in purple states in which Democrats are doing well 鈥� perhaps better than expected.

Take Colorado. Back in late August, incumbent Sen. Mark Udall (D) had a 64 percent chance of winning reelection, according to the Post鈥檚 Election Lab model. Today, he鈥檚 got a 94 percent chance of another term, .

In Iowa, the Post model gave Republican state Sen. Joni Ernst, who is running for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Tom Harkin, a 72 percent chance of winning. Today that鈥檚 slid to a 59 percent chance.

Post ratings in Kansas, as well as Louisiana and North Carolina, also have moved in the Democrats鈥� favor.

At 538, founder Nate Silver points to Colorado and North Carolina as key purple states where Democratic chances have improved. , Silver writes. Democrats have more cash than the GOP in key states.

鈥淲hatever the reason, the GOP鈥檚 path to a Senate majority is less robust than before,鈥� Silver writes.

It鈥檚 certainly possible that the models are exaggerating Democratic chances to keep Harry Reid in his current majority leader job. The generic congressional ballot right now favors the Republicans, and that鈥檚 usually a key indicator. Obama鈥檚 polls aren鈥檛 recovering. Surveys show Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting, meaning mid-term turnout might be more tilted toward the GOP than normal. The economy is just bumping along. The world seems in crisis from Ukraine to Iraq to West Africa.

In fact, some veteran political prognosticators are predicting not just a GOP win, but a GOP wave. Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report writes that Democrats have .

And Stu Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report predicts that Republicans will .

鈥淏ut I wouldn鈥檛 be shocked by a larger gain,鈥� he wrote last week.