New Hampshire Senate: Are Scott Brown and Jeanne Shaheen really tied?
| Washington
Is Republican Scott Brown tied with Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire? That鈥檚 what indicates. It鈥檚 got the Granite State Senate race all locked up, 48 percent to 48 percent, with the election only seven weeks away.
Understandably, that鈥檚 made the Republican Party leadership pretty excited. Mr. Brown began the race as an underdog, given that he was a senator from Massachusetts and until recently remained a Massachusetts resident. Plus, he鈥檚 trying to oust an incumbent. So the degree of difficulty inherent in his attempt at a political comeback is high.
The Republican National Committee issued a press release highlighting this poll鈥檚 results, including its finding that, in New Hampshire, President Obama鈥檚 favorability ratings are a bit worse than his national average, with 38 percent of New Hampshire likely voters approving of Obama鈥檚 job performance and 60 percent disapproving.
鈥淥bama Is A Drag On Shaheen In New Hampshire,鈥� .
But here鈥檚 the kicker: There are three other new polls on the New Hampshire Senate race, and their results are all over the scatter plot. None of them match CNN/ORC鈥檚 findings.
Two are partisan surveys. conducted by Kiley & Company has Senator Shaheen ahead of Brown by 51 to 43 percent. A poll for the pro-Brown political action committee Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire has Brown ahead, 46 to 44.
, an independent firm that uses automated polling methods. They鈥檝e got Shaheen in front by 48 to 42 percent.
What鈥檚 all this mean? It probably indicates that Shaheen is still in the lead. At least, that鈥檚 what the big polling averagers say. of major surveys has Shaheen up by 3.5 percentage points, 47.3 to 43.8. has Shaheen ahead 48.1 to 42.4.
Now, it鈥檚 possible that CNN picked up on a movement toward Brown that Rasmussen missed for some reason. Polling for Senate races in individual states is not going to be nearly as definitive as big national surveys.
But the CNN poll also showed that Brown鈥檚 favorables are under water, with 46 percent of respondents rating him favorably, and 48 percent unfavorably. Shaheen鈥檚 ratings are more positive: 54 percent favorable, and 42 percent unfavorable.
A challenger whose personal numbers are not great, tied with an incumbent whose numbers are pretty good? That鈥檚 just weird, on "The Fix" political blog.
But given the Democratic president鈥檚 unpopularity in New Hampshire, anything might happen here.
鈥淒espite it all, it appears increasingly possible this will be a competitive race,鈥� writes Mr. Blake.
