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Jeb Bush: Is GOP elite drafting him for 2016?

Jeb Bush appears to be faring well in Republicans' so-called 'invisible primary,' amid growing concerns among big party donors and establishment officials about Chris Christie and Rand Paul.

Jeb Bush. He鈥檚 tanned and rested. But is he ready, meaning ready to run for president?

That鈥檚 what some Republican Party bigwigs are asking as they quietly court the former Florida governor for 2016, according to a in the Washington Post.

These members of the GOP elite 鈥� a mix of Romney campaign veterans, big money donors, and party establishment officials 鈥� are in search of a candidate to back who they think can actually win the White House.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was one of their early choices, but now they鈥檙e worried the investigation into the Ft. Lee traffic jam is hurting Christie鈥檚 chances. Meanwhile, they鈥檙e concerned about the rise of Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, due to his tea party libertarianism and non-interventionist foreign policy inclinations.

Who can save them from this mess? Is it 鈥� could it be 鈥� a Bush on a white horse?

鈥淧rominent donors, conservative leaders and longtime operatives say they consider Bush the GOP鈥檚 brightest hope to win back the White House,鈥� report the Post鈥檚 Philip Rucker and Robert Costa.

OK, we鈥檝e got some comments here. The first is that this is actually news. It is not another notional poll about how Bush matches up against Hillary Clinton in Iowa. It鈥檚 hard information about the so-called 鈥渋nvisible primary,鈥� in which party leaders and donors vet candidates in a winnowing period that can determine the candidate field.

This process goes both ways 鈥� potential nominees search for support, while party elites judge who they鈥檒l back. But in the end the latter dynamic may be most important.

The authors of the Post piece 鈥渞ecognize that this isn鈥檛 just a matter of a candidate trolling for support within the various parts of the party establishment, but the various parts of the party establishment actively vetting a candidate, or, as they put it, a 鈥榙raft鈥� is underway,鈥� , an assistant professor at South Dakota State University, at The Invisible Primary political science blog.

Second, the key here may not be Governor Christie鈥檚 troubles, but Senator Paul鈥檚 success.

Christie has always had doubters within the top levels of the GOP, due to his perceived Northeastern moderation, and the way he distanced himself from the Romney campaign in its crucial final weeks. Paul, on the other hand, was largely ignored, seen as a version of his father, Ron Paul 鈥� a niche libertarian candidate, only with more hair.

But Paul has lit some parts of the GOP on fire with his anti-National Security Agency crusade in favor of civil liberties. He鈥檚 reached out to establishment parts of the party through such things as backing his fellow Kentuckian, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, against a tea party primary rival. He鈥檚 at or near the top of early GOP leader board polls.

In other words, he鈥檚 a threat. Yet he remains enough out of step with many top Republicans on policy matters that he鈥檚 also a threat to split the party. Thus the race to find a white knight that might stop him.

But finally: Jeb Bush, really? It鈥檚 not only that his father and brother both served as president. It鈥檚 also that he鈥檚 been out of electoral politics for some time and has problems of his own with many conservative voters.

鈥淏ush isn鈥檛 just rusty from more than six years on the sidelines. He鈥檚 also racked up some serious hits among conservative voters for his positions on immigration and Common Core, among other things,鈥� at the right-leaning Hot Air site.

In that context, if he does run, Bush may risk becoming 2016鈥檚 Romney or McCain: a candidate who unites the bulk of the GOP while draining enthusiasm from the committed conservative part of the party base.