海角大神

Hillary Rodham Clinton has a favorable rating of 54 percent, versus just 36 percent for Jeb Bush, according to the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll.

But don鈥檛 assume that will discourage Mr. Bush, the former two-term governor of Florida, from getting into the 2016 presidential race. Those numbers might actually encourage Bush to jump in, says Republican pollster Ed Goeas. He was speaking Tuesday at a breakfast hosted by 海角大神.

鈥淎ll of a sudden, it鈥檚 no longer 鈥榯oo many Bushes,鈥� 鈥� says Mr. Goeas, who conducts the Battleground Poll with Democrat Celinda Lake. 鈥淚t becomes two very powerful political families going up against each other.鈥�

Bush and Mrs. Clinton both spoke at a conference on higher education Tuesday near Dallas. They were not on stage together, but just appearing at the same event was good enough to spark another round of Hillary-Jeb 2016 headlines.

In fact, Bush has been sounding more positive lately about a possible campaign. So has his mother, Barbara Bush, wife and mother of ex-presidents. Last year, the family matriarch declared that 鈥渨e鈥檝e had enough Bushes鈥� in the White House. But earlier this month, she changed her tune and called her No. 2 son 鈥渢he best qualified person in the country.鈥�

Some folks may find the idea of a Clinton-Bush presidential matchup distasteful. After all, Americans are famous for telling their kids they could grow up to be president someday. You don鈥檛 have to belong to a political 鈥渞oyal family鈥� to rise to the top, the thinking goes. Mrs. Bush called it 鈥渟illy鈥� to think that 鈥渨e can鈥檛 find more than two or three families to run for high office.鈥� Indeed, Presidents Clinton and Obama both have humble origins.

But there鈥檚 a lot to be said for coming from a political family. That鈥檚 especially true now with the presidency. The fundraising demands alone have never been more daunting. Ditto the demand to organize staff and volunteers around the country. If Hillary Clinton runs, she鈥檚 the instant favorite to win the Democratic nomination, in part because she can activate both with the snap of her fingers.

Jeb Bush, too, could do the same to some degree. 鈥淏ush鈥� is still a leading brand in the Republican establishment. Jeb鈥檚 son, George P. Bush, is on track to win election in November as Texas land commissioner. He would become the fourth generation of Bushes to hold elective office, starting with Sen. Prescott Bush (R) of Connecticut.

But when it comes to presidential talk, there鈥檚 that issue of 鈥渢oo many Bushes,鈥� otherwise known as 鈥淏ush fatigue.鈥� Americans remember Bush鈥檚 father鈥檚 presidency fondly, but less so his brother鈥檚, which ended just five years ago. On the plus side, public ratings of the second President Bush have been ticking upward. Perhaps by 2015, when major contenders are declaring their intentions, enough time will have passed for Jeb to feel the nation is ready for another Bush.

As the Battleground Poll shows, Bush would have his work cut out for him. Among likely voters, 40 percent hold an unfavorable view of him. Chances are, some voters are conflating him with his older brother, pollsters have suggested. In theory, Jeb Bush should be able to clarify to voters that he鈥檚 not George W. Bush. And working in his favor is the Battleground Poll鈥檚 finding that 18 percent of likely voters have no opinion of him, and 7 percent have never heard of him.

Clinton has a much smaller cushion. Her negative rating is higher than Bush鈥檚, 42 percent. Only 4 percent have no opinion, and 1 percent have never heard of her.

Americans might also get some perspective on political dynasties from presidential scholar Stephen Hess. In a 2009 Washington Post op-ed on the subject, the Brookings Institution scholar ranked the Bush dynasty at only sixth in the nation, based on a point system he developed. The Kennedys ranked first, with one president, three senators, five representatives, and a cabinet member. (Since that article, another Kennedy -- Rep. Joseph Kennedy III (D) of Massachusetts -- has added to the family record.)聽

The Bushes have two presidents, one vice president, two governors, one senator, and one member of the House. In all, there are four dynasties with two American presidents. Besides the Bushes, they are the Adamses, the Harrisons, and the Roosevelts.

Mr. Hess鈥檚 advice on building a dynasty: 鈥淗ave a lot of kids,鈥� he told USA Today.

On that count, Barbara Bush is a winner. She has five living children, and a slew of grandchildren and great-grandchildren. In her change of heart about Jeb earlier this month, she noted that history is on her side when it comes to prominent political families and the presidency. 聽

鈥淚 read 鈥楾he Bully Pulpit鈥� by Doris Kearns Goodwin,鈥� Mrs. Bush told Fox News, 鈥渁nd she points out that in 1700, there were only three families, so maybe it鈥檚 OK.鈥�